One week out from the draft! Packers and Bears Picks

As usual, the Draft Compass provides different lines of reality between the different types of Mock Drafts. As is the case every year this addition focuses in on two teams, The Packers and The Bears. I am always open to do another addition for a few other teams if possible so give me a heads up for a request.

This line of reality focuses on the team needs and the players that I think they should pick that would likely be available at that pick. This year, I did a series of draft simulations to assess my thoughts on both of teams, who will likely be there, and who should be picked. Comparing each of the simulations I came to specific conclusions on where certain guys should likely be taken.

Packers Picks: The Packers certainly have needs even after free agency but Gutekunst did an excellent job of signing a few street free agents that are solid back-up plans. The signing of Devin Funchess allows for the Packers to take a WR if a top one falls but not reach for the next best. The way I see the cards falling, that guy will not be there at 30. Plus, Lazard is just starting to develop and people forget that in his rookie year Equanimeous St. Brown was just starting to overtake Marquez Valdes-Scantling and unfortunately got hurt last year before the season started. Essentially, the wide receiver need might be a little overblown but they still should grab a good guy if he is available. The signing of Wagner and Kirksey were quite shrewd as well.

Needs: Middle Linebacker, Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Defensive Line, Secondary

Round 1 (30) –  Every simulation I ran, I came to the same conclusion. This pick needs to be traded unless Tee Higgins falls to this spot. In some simulations, he falls here. If the Packers can manage to trade down a little into the high 2^nd round, then in each of the simulations, Michael Pittman Jr. WR USC was the pick. If they keep the pick – Zach Baun LB Wisconsin because he could be quite the intriguing swiss army knife while he puts on a little more weight his rookie year. A few years down the road he will be the starting OLB for a number of years.

Round 2 (62) – Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Appalachian State – He falls into the new wave of lighter linebackers that are better in coverage. Yet, for his size he packs quite the punch. His frame also looks like it could hold a bit more weight on it so he could bulk up to a perfect size and still play coverage well. With Christian Kirksey being signed, ADG could develop a little first and be the S-LB hybrid that the Packers need. Every time I did the simulation and did not get ADG, I was heartbroken. I really like this player a lot.

Round 3 (94) – Lucas Niang OT TCU – With the signing of Wagner, the Packers can be patient with a developmental guy. Niang is a bit undisciplined and raw but he was able to get it done in college. Overall, this feels like a move that will pay major dividends in the long run. There is also the possibility that he is gone. If that is the case, a look at the best OT available here makes the most sense but there no reason to reach. Through the simulations I typically grabbed Niang but at times other players were available that were worth the pick. Ben Bartch and Prince Tega Wanogho though I am not as high on him.

Round 4 (136) – Bravvion Roy NT Baylor – I read a bit about Roy first, then watched the tape. Tape of him is a lot of fun to watch when you focus in on him. Sure, he is a little short but he uses both moves and power to overcome offensive lineman. When I watched him it reminded me a great deal of how Mike Daniels was coming out of college. The Packers need a guy like this. When I missed out on him in the simulation (after this pick) I was heartbroken every time. Therefore, this is the right spot for him in my book.

Round 5 (175) – James Proche WR SMU – I have seen widely varying projections for where Proche will go but this feels like the right spot for him. I am not sure what the big knock on him is exactly. I get that he is a little undersized but he has been such a big playmaker with very strong hands. Aaron Rodgers tends to not throw the ball to somebody he cannot trust to catch it and Proche should bring confidence that he can hang onto the ball.

Round 6 (192) – AJ Dillon RB Boston College – I am honestly a bit confused as to why he is falling off so much. I guess big backs are sort of out right now? Either way, when you put on tape and watch this guy it is hard not to love him. He is both fast and powerful and uses both to get the job done. If he legitimately falls this far, I think he is an absolute steal even if he ends up just being a role player.

Round 6 (208) – Josh Love QB San Jose State – Josh Love is legit one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch in this draft. I understand that San Jose State is not the biggest school but my gosh how has he slipped this far under the radar? He may not have the best arm strength or be the biggest but some of his throws are so accurate it is crazy. The other thing I really liked about him is that he distributes the ball quite a bit. If the Packers can grab a player of this caliber this late in the draft it will be dynamite. At best, he is a solid starter and at worst he will be a reliable back-up. He reminds me a lot of Tony Romo when he came out of Eastern Illinois.

Round 6 (209) – Dane Jackson CB Pitt – It has been tough to project where Jackson will go. While he may not be spectacular he is subtly a very solid cornerback with some limitations. With that being said, he is an ideal back-up corner who can fill in wherever needed because he is assignment sure.

Round 7 (236) – Nigel Kilby TE Southern Illinois – He still looks like a Basketball player playing football but man, the tools this guy has are crazy. He needs a year or maybe two but look for him to surface in the draft process. Packers can afford to take a shot on a guy like this here with their current TE situation being mostly set for 2020.

Round 7 (242) – Bryce Huff Edge Rusher Memphis – Huff has been a little up and down in his career and Memphis is not exactly a powerhouse defense. However, he plays the game with so much energy and just lacks discipline at this point. Worth taking a shot at this deep in the draft.

Bears Picks: The Bears have holes in a lot of places so they need to reload. Top of the list is defensive backfield and offensive line. It is tough to see the Bears keeping both 2nds because they have so many needs so a trade down is likely with one of those. With that being said, we will go forward with a no trade scenario.

Needs: Safety, Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Inside and Outside Linebackers, CB

Round 2 (43) – Ashtyn Davis S Cal – Every time I got to this pick with the exception of once in the simulation I came up with the debate of Davis versus the best CB on the board and had to go Davis. Given that the Bears have two picks so close together the drop between the best CB on the board and the next best was not too great but the drop off at Safety was too much to gamble. Davis should be the compliment for Eddie Jackson that Adrian Amos was if not a little better.

Round 2 (50) – Cameron Dantzler CB – If Dantzler is still sitting here it should be a no brainer to grab him. The Bears need another young corner and Artie Burns is not likely to resurrect his career (I hate to admit that one because I was so high on him coming out of college). Dantzler’s biggest issue is that he is so darn skinny so he will need to put weight on but his skills are very good.

Round 5 (163) – This pick changed virtually every time I did a simulation so it is a bit hard to predict but here goes. – Saahdiq Charles T LSU – The Bears have needed to strengthen their line for a while and Charles has the tools to be a solid starter in the NFL. Waiting any longer to bring in reinforcements would be foolish.  

Round 6 (196) – Dalton Keene TE Virginia Tech – Keene is a real wild care in this draft. When he had his shot, he played well, but they did not involve him enough in college. He also is an inline blocker which is not as coveted today. If the Bears can land Keene here, they will stabilize the position a bit.

Round 6 (200) – Jon Runyan Jr. Michigan – Let us ignore his name for a moment. I was watching tape on AJ Epenesa and he was getting consistently stopped by an offensive lineman on Michigan. I looked closer and sure enough it was Runyan. Maybe he is not tackle in the NFL, but I would still try him at RT first before moving him to guard. In the end, you get a potential starter late in the draft. I am not really sure why he has been getting knocked down so much.

Round 7 (226) – Mason Fine QB North Texas – Who knows with this one. He could be long gone or he could go undrafted. But the Bears need to take a shot at a super talented, albeit smaller, QB with a cannon arm. Is a Russell Wilson, of course not, but he could still be a solid QB in the NFL with his tools. That is more than the Bears have had for a very long time.

Round 7 (233) – Matt Cole WR McKendree University – Came across this guy and wondered how he fell under the radar. Tape on a D-II can only give you so much but I did come across an internet radio interview and he sounds like somebody that knows he needed to take things more seriously when he was younger. Sounds fairly mature at this point and also a Chicago kid. More than just a fast WR, good vision on the field. One thing I did like off of the tape is that he had some big hits tackling on special teams. Overall, I think this is a guy that is well worth taking a shot at and developing him.

There you have it! Please reach out to me if you are wondering about any other teams and stay tuned for other features and mock drafts!