First Round Review - Quality Ranks and Risk Ranks

 

Hello Draft Compass Fans. Here is my quick review of the first round. As in the past, I like to do Quality Rankings and Risk Rankings since grading is a bit futile. This year was a wild year with some interesting picks and trades and of course the head-scratching players and decisions. This is a draft that is generally deep at a lot of positions without quite as much star power so I thought there would be a few more super reaches than there were. But of course, there are always those picks I hate.

Quality Ranking means how well the team did with the fit of the player, the players skill level, and where they were picked to a lesser degree. 1 -32 with 1 being the highest quality player and 32 being the lowest quality player.

Risk Rank refers to how risky of a player I think they are. 1 is the riskiest player drafted in the first round with 32 being the guy that I think poses little to no risk.

 

 

 

 

	Team	Name	Comments	Quality Rank (1 highest - 32 lowest)	Risk Rank (1 highest - 32 lowest risk)
1	Raiders	Fernando Mendoza	There will always be some form of risk with any QB. Mendoza has demonstrated success in his college career across two schools. He has shown leadership and has made some incredible plays. Tough to find too many holes with this pick so I am keeping him high on quality and low on risk.	2	28
2	Jets	David Bailey	Bailey felt like a safe pick for the Jets as he has pass-rush talent and a lot of physical skills. However, his lack of creativity with his pass-rush moves is concerning to me. So, this is partially where he was taken as well as looking at his likely ceiling. I am keeping him higher on talent and middle for risk leaning slightly riskier.	11	14
3	Cardinals	Jeremiyah Love	Every indication is that Love should transition to the NFL no problem and his set of skills is impressive. I think this might have been the smartest pick of the first round outside of Mendoza. High quality and very low risk. However, running back always pose some slight risk.	3	29
4	Titans	Carnell Tate	I really like Tate a lot, but he is not the caliber of WR that we have seen as the top WR in the past and at 4th overall. That is not to say that I do not think that this was the right pick for the Titans, but I do not think he will ever be a superstar. Still, I think he will be good and is relatively lower risk.	15	24
5	Giants	Arvell Reese	Reese, much like Bailey, needs to diversify his pass-rushing moves. The difference is that Bailey produced and Reese has not. Teams seemed to be able to solve Reese in college, so the NFL is only going to be harder on him. I think there is a lot of risk and the quality here is reduced because I am not sure how he is going to fit into this defense. Why go with another pass-rusher? Unless they decide to move him elsewhere? I think this is too high of a risk and too low of quality on a player.	20	6
6	Chiefs	Mansoor Delane	I like Delane and appreciate that the Chiefs did what they had to do to get the player they wanted. Still, I am not even sure if Delane is the best CB in this draft. With that said, I think he is going to be a solid starter, so he is middle of the road in both quality and risk.	14	13
7	Commanders	Sonny Styles	Historically, ultra athletic linebackers that were former safeties has been a mixed bag. So history makes this a slightly riskier pick. But his talent is immense and I think Styles was one of the best players in the draft and could possibly be the best pick in the draft at this point. We will see how the Commanders use him but I think this was a slam dunk.	1	27
8	Saints	Jordyn Tyson	I love Jordyn Tyson and his highlights are so darn impressive. But it is tough to be high on a player who has NEVER finished a season without getting injured. This is an absolute boom or bust pick. I unfortunately tend to think this will not work out for the Saints in the long run. Alex Anzalone was in a similar boat coming out of college at a different position obviously and you could argue he has worked out for his second team and has finished 2/3 of his seasons playing in every game.	9	4
9	Browns	Spence Fano	Fano is a good pick here. I am not positive on him being the best OL in this draft long term so quality is slightly lower but he should be a safe pick that plays in the league a long time.	17	25
10	Giants	Francis Mauigoa	Mauigoa is a beast of a player and should be an excellent player for the Giants for a long time. Maybe he plays Guard his rookie year but look for him to end up as the starting RT or eventual LT for them. I think he was one of the safest picks and is chock-full of talent. Love this pick for the Giants.	7	30
11	Cowboys	Caleb Downs	The Cowboys got extremely lucky here and ten made a smart move to ensure that they got a guy that should not have fallen outside of the top 10. It reminds me a lot of when they drafted Parsons. I am putting Downs as the safest player in the draft and this is towards the tops of talent which at 11 is even better. He is a little short and that is the only real knock I would have but he plays big.	4	32
12	Dolphins	Kadyn Proctor	I have no clue as to what the Dolphins were thinking here. There is a laundry list of guys like Proctor that have all the talent in the world but forget that their job is to be an athlete so they need to train like one. Maybe he works out but I think the quality is not here and the risk is very high. This was in my bottom 5 picks for the first round.	13	3
13	Rams	Ty Simpson	I was stunned at this pick. Apparently so was Sean McVay. That is not good. I absolutely love Simpsons tape when he was playing well but the rough parts and inexperience make this a high risk pick. With that being said, I think this is one of the single best scenarios for Simpson as there will be no pressure to start this year while he develops. I do not hate this pick but I think the risk is too high for it here.	28	7
14	Ravens	Vega Ioane	I really like Ioane a lot and think he is an incredibly safe pick. He will be consistent for a long time. Ranking him right in the middle for quality was tough but I am not sure that he will be anything but solid for the next decade. Really good pick and the right pick for the Ravens, just not an exciting pick.	16	31
15	Buccaneers	Rueben Bain Jr.	I believe that Bain is the best defensive difference makers in this draft. He will never be much more than a 10 sack a year guy but he will be effective in pressuring the QB and in the run game. This was an absolute steal at this point in the draft. I am high on the quality but have to acknowledge that there is a bit of a risk with him. Still I would take that risk here in a heartbeat. I think about a guy like Rashan Gary and him going higher than this but Bain being a more accomplished player and having the same type of upside.	5	21
16	Jets	Kenyon Sadiq	I tend to think that this is the type of pick that will work out well for the Jets. But Tight Ends always seem to carry a lot of risk and many bust. The Jets probably had greater needs at this point but they ended up with the player I though they should take here with their later pick. A luxury player for a team that cannot afford that is tough pill to swallow. With that said, the talent here is immense so he ranks high on the quality scale.	10	16
17	Lions	Blake Miller	It is curious that the Lions had Miller ahead of Freeling but both were pretty close in my book. This is sort of a broccoli pick in that he is a good player and is relatively lower risk but he is not going to ever be your top guy. I hope they do in fact keep him at RT and move Sewell to LT.	23	19
18	Vikings	Caleb Banks	The Vikings have an ability to make me scratch my head in the first round quite often. Without a doubt, this is my least favorite pick in the first round. Banks is all potential with light production. He is injured. I have him as maybe a worthwhile risk in the second round (I did in fact pick him then) but I just do not see the need for the Vikings here or the risk being worthwhile. Heavy bust vibes here.	32	1
19	Panthers	Monroe Freeling	I actually really love this fit here with Freeling taking over either side right away. He is definitely a similar to Miller in being a broccoli pick but I am putting him as a slight upgrade in quality and less risk. I could see both having nearly identical careers and still playing in a decade.	21	18
20	Eagles	Makai Lemon	It sounds like the Eagles swooped in (pun intended I think?) and stole Lemon away. Because Lemon is an odd player in that physically he does not look like he should be as good as he is there is a moderate risk. However, I think this is a steal at 20 as I had him as top 10 talent. Excellent pick by the Eagles.	12	15
21	Steelers	Max Iheanachor	Uf. Hearing about the Eagles picking Lemon as the Steelers were on the phone with him really reveals why this pick happened because it felt odd. Unfortunately, it was a reactionary pick. I think that there is possibly something there with Iheanachor as he has barely played football. The potential is certainly there but there is a hit to the quality because this is about 10 picks too high. Iheanachor has so much potential but his game is still sloppy. I could see this pick working out but it is very boom or bust.	24	5
22	Chargers	Akheem Mesidor	I really Mesidor and think he is going to be a very consistent force that offenses always need to account for. His age drops the quality a bit and there is some risk in that he may have reached his ceiling already. Still I think this is a player that teams appreciate much more than the fans do.	19	20
23	Cowboys	Malachi Lawrence	Lawrence is similar to Reese in that the production does not match the talent. This is a bit high for him in my book and I am not sure that he will ever be anything more than a 5-8 sack a year player. I was not the biggest fan of this pick and the talent he has so I think the risk for bust is fairly high. Strange pick if you ask me even if there were rumors of his stock rising.	29	9
24	Browns	KC Concepcion	No player is more polarizing in my brain than Concepcion. What he does, he does quite well, but he feels a little one dimensional if you ask me. If he solves the concentration drops, he does not look like he has bad hands, then this looks like a very good pick. But that is a big if.	26	8
25	Bears	Dillon Thieneman	The Bears were patient here and let a player who is much more talented than the 25th pick fall into their laps. Theineman feels like the type of player that brings it every play and you can rely on. His physical talents are off the charts. I have a feeling that this is a pick that we look back on and wonder how he fell this far. One of the best picks in the first round.	8	26
26	Texans	Keylan Rutledge	Much like Ioane, this is a solid overall pick but Guards are never a sexy pick. I do think this was too early for Rutledge and had at least one other guard ahead of him. Not a bad pick per se, but it was a reach. Middle risk because he will probably be a good player but quality is a little lower.	27	17
27	Dolphins	Chris Johnson	I had a suspicion that Johnson was going to go in the first round. He is one of my favorite players in the draft and I think he could turn out to be the best CB in this draft. Still, I have to acknowledge the risk of a player who is coming from a slightly lower level of competition and that his physical skills do not always show up on the tape. With that said, I love this pick for the Dolphins.	6	22
28	Patriots	Caleb Lomu	I am not sure what to truly think of Lomu as I have gone back and forth. I really like him but there is this slight hesitation. He can be a beast and then look pedestrian at times. Is it lack of experience or is it instincts? So the quality is mostly potential and the risk is a little higher. With all of that said, I think this was a smart pick for the Patriots as they can see if Lomu is better at LT and move Campbell to RT if need be. Personally, I think Lomu ends up as the RT.	25	12
29	Chiefs	Peter Woods	Clemson had so much talent but something odd happened with that talent which adds to the risk factor. Woods has immense potential and I like him as a player overall. I think he will shine in the NFL but there is that voice in the back of my mind wondering what happened. I am a little lower on the quality here because I think the Chiefs should have gone in a different direction. Maybe Chris Jones can help to iron out Woods issues?	22	10
30	Jets	Omar Cooper Jr.	This is who I thought the Jets should grab with their previous pick. I am probably a little higher on Cooper than most but I just see a consistent and hard working player. His talent is much higher than this pick and there is a need for a player just like him on the Jets both of which increases the quality here. I think he is relatively low risk but he is not quite a top athlete which increases the risk a little.	18	23
31	Titans	Keldric Faulk	Did they really need to trade back into the 1st for this guy? While I did not quite dislike this pick as much as the Vikings taking Caleb Banks I just cannot figure out the appeal here. If the Titans have a plan as to where to use him and how to use him, great. But if he stays in the purgatory of always switching between positions, he might be doomed. High risk on talent but very low production makes this probably not worth it. I am much lower on Faulk than many.	31	2
32	Seahawks	Jadarian Price	I made this pick in my mock draft. I think the fit is actually pretty good because Price will split time with Charbonnet in the pros so that reduces his pressure to be a bell cow which he so far does not seem to be. In many other drafts, Price is not the second best RB but this draft is a little light on elite talent after Love. He has some unrefined aspects to his game and higher fumble percentage so that makes this a pretty risky pick. But it is the 32nd pick so why not?	30	11