Mock Draft with
Projected Trades
Here is the updated Mock Draft
with Projected trades. I am using the Rich Hill 1000 point value chart (
http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp)
since it is a little more accurate to recent trades. I have the
Should Pick and the
Will Pick scenarios but since there are
two branches of reality here, some of these will be the team standing pat and
others will be the projected trade. As always, there are a few players I
consider untouchable and it will be clear by the end.
1.
Arizona Cardinals – No real updates here as I do
not see them trading out of this pick whether they are enamored with Murray or
not but I really think they are.
Should Pick: No Change - DE Nick
Bosa Ohio State – When Joey Bosa came out in 2016 I initially had him being
taken 1st overall before the Rams traded up for the first pick. Many
teams would be willing to take Joey first overall and Nick should be no
different. Nick is not quite as long as Joey but they are so similar in the way
that they play. Much like Joey, he strings multiple moves together. There is a
part of me that also thinks Quinnen
Williams should be considered because he is so unique and versatile.
Will Pick: No Change - QB Kyler
Murray Oklahoma – I just do not see this as a smoke screen, I really think
that they covet him. Kingsbury wants his guy and has a vision for what he can
do with him so it may not be a terrible idea. However, that does not mean that
his vision will equal success.
2.
San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers should stay here
and grab the best player available that can help them now. Trading down will be
tempting in the Will Pick Scenario though.
Should Pick: No Change - OLB Josh
Allen Kentucky – Allen is scheme versatile and is a high motor player. Even
if Bosa was here, I think Allen is the more logical pick for the 49ers. The
more I watch Allen, the more I like him.
Will Pick: Projected Trade with
Oakland – Oakland gives up #4, #35, and #106 for #2 pick
Oakland Raiders: DE Nick Bosa Ohio
State – Bosa seems like a John Gruden type of player and he needs a pass
rusher bad as can be. A perfect fit and the Raiders can regain some of the
capital they gave up here by trading down later.
3.
New York Jets – The Jets are in an excellent
spot here and the player in this draft that should help them the most is going
to be likely the player they get. Sorry to be boring here but the Jets should
not have any interest to trade with anybody and get an elite level player. No change with Should or Will
Should Pick: DL Quinnen Williams
Alabama – Williams is a rare talent that should pair extremely well with
Leonard Williams. Both players can play all over the line and disrupt so it
should be interesting to see how teams try to handle that.
Will Pick: Same
4.
Oakland Raiders – In the Will Pick scenario, this is the 49ers pick. In the Should Pick, things could get
interesting with who values who and where at this point. Which means that a
trade down could be on the horizon.
Should Pick: No change - DE/OLB
Montez Sweat Mississippi State– Sweat is a small gamble here because he is
such an odd size for a DE and there is no guarantee that he could play a rush
OLB. Regardless, he has elite traits and has shown that he can use his size to
his advantage so he would be a nice fit for coaches that can think outside the
box. I toyed with one idea here where the Detroit
Lions move up to this spot for Devon
White but I simply do not think that he is worth trading up for.
49ers Pick (From #2) Will Pick: OLB
Josh Allen Kentucky – The 49ers make a shrewd move, pick up draft capital,
and get the best player for their team. Per what I said before, Allen is scheme
versatile and would be an excellent addition to any team.
5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – What Tampa Bay should do
and what they will do are two different things here. They have some needs in a
few places but they are not this bad of a team.
Should Pick: No Change - QB Dwayne
Haskins Ohio State – I still hold that this is the right pick here and that
it is time to cut your losses with Jameis Winston. Once this has been done,
Winston can be traded away for whatever anybody will give them. Fitzpatrick
showed that an average QB could take advantage of the tools available. Haskins
is not my favorite QB to come out recently but he is a leader and he has the
ability to make some pretty remarkable plays. With this supporting cast he
would make a lot of those.
Will Pick: LB Devin White LSU – So
last time, I had Devin Bush going
here. I still think it is not out of the question that he goes before White
because of Bush is a little stouter and has less of an injury history. But
White’s potential is too great to pass up. As I said before, I suspect that
there is a reason that they let Kwon Alexander leave beyond just the injury and
money.
6.
New York Giants – The Giants are led by Dave
Gettlemen who always seems to make inconsistent rash decisions which makes
choosing his picks difficult. One year, in the middle of the draft, Chris
texted Andre and said, “Panthers are really just shooting from the hip”, and
that is the best way to explain Dave Gettlemen as a GM. I find it ironic that
he traded away OBJ (For the record, I agree with him doing so) because he
always seems to bring in WRs with baggage. So bring on the unpredictability
here.
Should Pick: QB Daniel Jones Duke
– Daniel Jones impressed me so much at the Senior Bowl and I think he might
turn out to be the best QB in this draft. Poor supporting cast in college may
have stunted his potential a bit so it is going to be interesting if he is
given time to develop and the Giants build a team up around him. Jones will be
gone by their next pick so they go with him here.
Will Pick: - DE/OLB Montez Sweat
Mississippi State – The Giants seem to be serious about changing up their
pass rush. Sweat is a bit raw, but could anybody honestly say that he has any
less potential than the other top pass-rushers in this class? I am not saying
that he will be better than Bosa but he certainly could be.
7.
Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars got their new
QB in Foles and he is solid but not the type that makes his receivers better.
The Jaguars need to focus on getting Foles both protection and targets. With
that said, there might also be some talent here or an offer that is too sweet
to pass up.
Should Pick: No Change - WR DK
Metcalf Ole Miss – Even before the combine, I felt that Metcalf was going
to be a great WR. While some might call this high for him, the Jaguars need to
draft at least 2 WRs so why not get the best one in the draft.
Will Pick: Projected Trade Miami –
Miami gives up #13 and #48 for #7.
Miami Dolphins – QB Dwayne Haskins
Ohio State - Miami overpays slightly to move up to grab Haskins who has fallen this far. Haskins has some impressive plays
that he has made in college and he has a good head on his shoulders. I am not
buying into Miami throwing the season so when they see this opportunity, they
jump on it.
8.
Detroit Lions – The Lions need to continue to
find reinforcements on offense to help Matthew Stafford and on Defense to take
the pressure off the offense. At this point in the draft the defense is the
area that still has elite talent. This turns out to be an excellent spot for
Detroit as they have the pick of the litter in a lot of cases.
Should Pick: LB Devin White LSU – In
this scenario, White is here and the upside is too great to let him fall any
further and the Lions can use an elite talent. You wonder about some of the
health red flags compounded by the Lions bad luck with MLBs and health.
Regardless, you take a shot here.
Will Pick: No Change - DE Clelin
Ferrell Clemson – Ferrell clearly has a lot of talent and should
theoretically be a very good player. However, I am so wary of Clemson players
and their lack of success in the NFL. Additionally, it is tough to totally
trust that he was as good as he looked because he had such a strong supporting
cast.
9.
Buffalo Bills – The Bills took their man last
year and now it is time to protect that man and give him some weapons, the
former making more sense in the first round. Sorry to be boring on this one, but no change.
Should Pick: OT Jonah Williams
Alabama – I know that Dillard, Taylor, Little, and even Ford have been
getting more love than Williams in some cases but Williams is the best of the them
all. He has the right temperament, mentality, and skills to be a very good
tackle in the NFL. Similar to Jack Conklin when he came out but a bit more
versatile and athletic. Conklin was the safest pick when he came out and so is
Williams, do not risk your young QB with a gamble. Receivers will come later.
Will Pick: Same – It just makes
too much sense at this point.
10.
Denver Broncos – John Elway is going to destroy
the Broncos. He just does not have the eye for talent that he thinks he does.
With that said, getting Flacco was a move in the right direction, now it is
time to get the right young guy under his wing.
Should Pick: DL Ed Oliver Houston
– While Oliver is being thought of as more of a 4-3 Up Tackle, he should be
an excellent 3-4 DE and inside nickel rusher. The Broncos defense is already
dynamic up front, Oliver makes it flat out scary.
Will Pick: No Change - QB Drew
Lock Missouri – I just have this feeling that Elway is enamored with Lock.
In fact, I thought about how he may trade up for him at numerous points in this
draft already. Lock reminds me so
much of Jake Locker in more than just his name. The guy throws a pretty ball in
practice, looks great at his pro day, looked great during the week of the
Senior Bowl. But then has moments where he lays an absolute egg in games.
Talent is there, Elway likes that, but you have to wonder about what happens on
game day.
11.
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have a few
needs to pump up the roster, should start looking at their future at a few
positions, and have a new offensive coach who might want to explore what he can
do with offensive players. This may complicate their selection here quite a bit
but logic would say to take the best available player. But a new coach might
quietly covet one of the young guns for the future.
Should Pick: OL Cody Ford Oklahoma
– The Bengals could use a nasty offensive lineman to strengthen the line.
It is a little questionable as to if Ford is a Guard or a RT but either way,
this is too good of an addition to the line to pass up.
Will Pick: QB Daniel Jones Duke– Taylor
is a new coach with a team that will be patient with him. With that thought in
mind, he looks towards the future figuring he will not have a shot at a QB this
good and have the time to groom him. Dalton is not a young buck and has always been
good enough but not great. Que Gettlemen’s heart dropping all the way from New
York.
12.
Green Bay Packers – The Packers addressed the
Pass-Rusher issue and Safety issue in free agency (or at least mostly did in
those cases) so it allows them to take the best player available at this point.
The more I look at the Packers situation and what they did in free agency, the
more I think they can and will go ahead and pull the trigger on an offensive
weapon.
Should Pick: No Change - TE TJ
Hockenson Iowa – I still am holding that Hockenson might be the best all
around TE to come out since Rob Gronkowski (minus those nasty injury issues of
course). When you say that about a player that means that you should not say
that any price is too high unless you are a Kicker or a Punter. Take him here
and fill up on OL, DL, ILB, and a second S later.
Will Pick: Same – It makes a lot
of sense at this point that they will do this.
13.
Miami Dolphins – In the Will Pick Scenario this pick belongs to Jacksonville. The Dolphins
clearly are going to make a play for a young QB during the draft. The question
really is when? They also let Ja'Wuan James go, but let’s be serious, he never
should have been a 1st round pick in the first place and was not
worth near that contract. Still they will need to replace him at some point
along with bringing in some pass rushers
Should Pick: Edge Rashan Gary
Michigan – Forego the QB here and take a shot at a few later on in the
draft. The Dolphins need a dynamic pass rusher and I am not hot on either Brian Burns or Jachai Polite. While most are projecting Gary as a 4-3 DE, I think
he has enough strong traits to play a 3-4 backer as well. He has a lot of
interesting similarities to Nick Perry in that he is more of a power rusher.
Maybe that does not sound appealing since Perry was a bit of a bust, but when
healthy he was a very strong rusher.
Trade Belongs to Jacksonville
(from #7) Will Pick: TE Noah Fant Iowa – I think the Jaguars are going to
feel okay enough with their WRs that they add Fant as a dynamic weapon to help
Foles. It would be hard to argue this pick and they received plenty of draft
capital to pick up more supporting cast later by moving down here.
14.
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons have a pretty
solid team overall but could fill some gaps here and there. As long as they
have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on offense it is impossible to count them out.
But you also need to protect the investments. They also have some need on the
DL and there are some good players available here.
Should Pick: OL Greg Little Ole
Miss – The Falcons need to continue to strengthen their OL to help Ryan
out. Little could start out at Guard and work his way into the RT position. I
know that 14 may seem a little high for a guard or RT but can you really put a
price on protecting your QB?
Will Pick: DT Ed Oliver Houston – Let’s
be honest, if the draft goes this way, the Falcons are going to be absolutely
licking their chops when they see an elite talent like Oliver here. He would be
a steal at this point and fits the Falcons well.
15.
Washington Redskins – The Redskins could think
about a young QB here, but that well is drying up a bit at this point in my
book. With Keenum at the helm while Alex Smith recovers they should be fine
there. Instead they need to turn toward replacing Preston Smith, fixing the
WRs, and Safety is a possibility.
Should Pick: Edge Jaylon Ferguson
LA Tech – Previously I had Brian
Burns going here but I took a second look and I am afraid that he has been
teetering into the bust category for me. I see that he is a physical freak but
he looks like he just uses speed most of the time. Ferguson’s tape impresses me
a lot and I feel like he is going to be a better pro than college player as he
looks more like a standup pass rusher than DE. I appear to be a much bigger fan
of his than a lot of people though.
Will Pick: No Change - WR DK
Metcalf Ole Miss – Metcalf would be just what the doctor ordered for the
Redskins with his speed, size, and hands. Again, I know they say that his
acceleration is not as great and that he is a bit of a long strider but I saw a
stud when I watched tape on him so I think he will be very good.
16.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are going to
need to continue to revamp their team by adding targets on offense and
continuing to add more pass rush on defense. They also seem to never be able to
find the right LT so that is also a strong consideration.
Should Pick: LB Devin Bush
Michigan – The Panthers have never had an issue with undersized (he really
is just short not undersized) LBs that are good football players and they have
a need at OLB, which should be no problem for Bush to play. He is just too
talented to pass up and OL will be addressed later.
Will Pick: OT Jawan Taylor Florida
– The Panthers need to keep trying to solidify their line and Taylor will
likely be considered the best on the board here. I have issues with his
consistency though. There are three tackles available here that I like better
than him.
17.
New York Giants (via Browns) – If the Giants do
not take a QB with their first pick, they have gambled and lost by this point
in the Will Pick scenario. But fear
not, a solution exists…
Should Pick: No Change - QB Kyler
Murray Oklahoma – With the other QBs gone at this point, Murray is worth
the risk. In this scenario, the Cardinals never selected Murray, which means
that Rosen is still their QB and it causes Murray to fall this far. Murray is a
tough sell to me but it is not like we are talking about a guy like Tim Tebow
where he was an inaccurate QB. Murray has the skills, he is just going to be
challenged with his playing style and obvious height issues.
Will Pick: Projected Trade with
Arizona – NYG get #33, QB Josh Rosen, and #139
Arizona Selects: DE Rashan Gary
Michigan – Gary falls a bit and the Cardinals find their willing trade
partner for Rosen. This makes passing up on a top pass rusher for Kyler Murray earlier a little easier to
swallow. Gary is not perfect but he should bring some strong pass rush and will
have Jones to help guide him along. Nice pick and trade here.
18.
Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings could go a few
different directions here and will need to consider immediate need over future
needs mostly on offense.
Should Pick: No Change but did
ponder Andre Dillard here - DE Clelin Ferrell Clemson – While not their
biggest need, the Vikings are going to need a player like Ferrell in the near
future when Griffen starts to slow down a bit/when Hunter decides to ask for
too much money. Additionally, he is a complimentary DE for the style of both of
those players so it makes sense here.
Will Pick: No Change - S Nassir
Adderly Delaware – I have a feeling that this is going to be a reach pick
for the Vikings. I like Adderly and all but I think he is getting a little
overrated and will need at least a year to adjust. With that being said,
Harrison Smith can help him out along the way so some of his mistakes could be
reduced through adjustments and Smith tutoring him a bit.
19.
Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in a solid
spot here where talent is available and they do not need to be desperate for
anybody in particular. Pass rusher, DL, and maybe even Safety top the list.
Should Pick: No Change - DT Dexter
Lawrence Clemson – Lawrence is not the sexy pick here but he could help the
Titans quite a bit as he is a big man that can hold the point or push the
pocket a bit. I think he is going to be the most successful of the Clemson
Lineman, though the stats will not show it.
Will Pick: LB Devin Bush Michigan
– Bush is a dynamic player and the Titans could use some more juice in the
middle. Bush is too talented of a player to fall past them. Nice all around
pick for them.
20.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers could use a
CB, TE, and ILB or just go best available here. They may also flirt with the
idea of a WR but this might be a bit too high.
Should Pick: TE Noah Fant Iowa – Looking
down the Steelers roster, it is tough to not bite on a talented TE. While Fant
serves much more as the receiver, he should add a dynamic that Big Ben has
never had. The Steelers are a bit more in now mode between Tomlin and Big Ben.
Will Pick: CB Greedy Williams LSU –
I have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to pull the trigger on
Greedy here. Williams is not a bad player but his head is his biggest enemy; he
should focus more on playing the game and less on himself.
21.
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks have solid
roster but need to strengthen their defensive backfield and could still use
some reinforcements on the offensive line.
Should Pick: OT Andre Dillard
Washington State– It is a toss up to me between Dillard and Kaleb McGary. But watching McGary
against Ohio State revealed moments where I wondered where his second effort
was. Dillard has the higher ceiling and Seattle needs to keep building up their
offensive line with stronger players.
Will Pick: OL Cody Ford Oklahoma –
Ford has slipped through the cracks here a little but will become an
instant upgrade over anybody on this offensive line wherever he ends up
playing. Really good pick for Seattle here.
22.
Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens helped themselves
in the past and in current free agency to take the pressure off of their free
agency losses for the most part. However, there is still a glaring need at WR
so it will likely come down to whomever they feel is the best at the position
and there are a few that are worthy of this spot.
Should Pick: No Change - WR Deebo
Samuel South Carolina – For my money (which is not really my money of
course) Deebo Samuel is the best WR in this draft but his height puts him a
hair below DK Metcalf. Still, I think he is worthy of a 1st round
grade with his quickness, hands, build, and awareness. I thought about N’Keal
Harry here but when I watched his tape, he has a lot of shorter routes and is a
bit too physical before the ball gets there. I also cannot stand a WR that does
not block on running plays, especially when they are this big.
Will Pick: WR Marquise Brown
Oklahoma – This is definitely one that I struggled with as I could see them
going in numerous directions. In the end, the decision is to take a player that
can help prevent the young QB from having to use his legs so much. I like
Samuel better personally, but Brown is going to be very good too so it really
is splitting hairs to me.
23.
Houston Texans – The Texans could use some
reinforcements on the OL, DL, and in the defensive backfield. Cornerback seems
to be the greatest need here even if there are more dynamic offensive players
that could help them.
Should Pick: CB Byron Murphy
Washington – I have issues with almost every CB in this draft but I think
Murphy might be the best. Deandre Baker is more physical but he does not
stick to the receivers in quite the same way that Murphy does.
Will Pick: Same – it just makes
too much sense for them.
24.
Oakland Raiders (Via Bears) – The Raiders
addressed pass rusher with their first pick so they can move on to other
immediate needs with their second pick: TE, RB, CB all come to mind as needs.
Should Pick: TE Irv Smith Jr.
Alabama – Smith is a little shorter but his hustle on plays is what you
want to see in a football player. I think that the top 3 TEs are all going to
turn out to be very good to great players and you do not pass on those when you
need one.
Will Pick: Edge Rusher Jachai
Polite Florida – I make no secret that I think that Polite is going to be a
major bust. He just pins his ears back and the tape I watched, he gave up too
often on running plays. That is not the player I want on my team but it is the
player they will get. Perhaps getting two pass-rushers in the first round seems
overkill, but I have a feeling that this is the way it will go.
25.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles continue to
keep a strong defensive front to take pressure off the back-end. However, they
could use a featured back on offense. No
Change here and no need to change, perfect fit
Should Pick: RB Josh Jacobs
Alabama – The biggest knock on Jacobs is that he was in a rotation in
college. However, that is how the Eagles will use him so the match makes
perfect sense. Another one of those guys that will just work hard to be the
best football player he can be and has fought for everything he has earned.
Should be a nice fit here.
Will Pick: Same – We could
certainly argue for a different guy here but Jacobs is a nice fit so no need to
mess with it.
26.
Indianapolis Colts – The fairly subtle free
agent signings the Colts have had allows for them to go with the most talented
player on the board who is not a QB.
Should Pick: CB Deandre Baker
Georgia – Baker could bring some real tenacity to the defensive backfield
for the Colts. He is not a perfect CB but he should be able to be solid in the
NFL and will not back down.
Will Pick: DE/OLB Brian Burns Florida
State – Burns is a high energy player who has a great first step. It is
going to be interesting to see how he is used in the NFL and the Colts could
roll the dice here on a talented but somewhat undisciplined player. The issue I
have with Burns is that he seems to rely too much on speed which can be neutralized.
27.
Oakland Raiders – The Raiders roll in with their
third first round pick and be happy that a player they can use is still there
for them.
Should Pick: No Change - RB David
Montgomery Iowa State – I know some will say this is high but he is just
such a consistent powerful runner that will help the Raiders significantly. If
you went back and asked any team in the NFL if they would give up the 27th
pick for Kareem Hunt (without the legal troubles of course) they would all say
yes! Montgomery has a lot of similarities to Hunt and should be a very good NFL
player.
Will Pick: TE Irv Smith Jr.
Alabama – After going heavy on defense with their first two picks the
Raiders scoop up the best offensive weapon available that is not a WR. There is
a huge drop off at TE after Smith so it makes sense to grab him here and focus
efforts on other needs later in the draft.
28.
Los Angeles Chargers – It seems like I have the
Chargers taking an OT with their first pick for the last five or six years.
They really probably need one, you know?
Should Pick: No Change - OT Kaleb
McGary Washington – After watching more tape on McGary, I am not quite as
big of a fan but he still has a lot of potential and is the best option here
for the Chargers. I just do not see the consistency with the higher touted Jawaan Taylor.
Will Pick: No Change - DT Dexter
Lawrence Clemson – With declining Leguit’s option they are opening the door
to a replacement. Lawrence is a good pick here as he will do what he needs to
do to help everybody around him and put enough inside pressure on the QB.
29.
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs lost a few guys
and have some holes to plug on their team now but they are in relatively good
shape so they should be able to grab a good player here.
Should Pick: No Change - S Taylor
Rapp Washington – The Chiefs need a solid replacement for Eric Berry and
Rapp fits that bill. He may not be dynamite in one area in particular but he is
solid overall and may be the safest of the safeties in this draft. Rapp just
seems to fit what they do better and I like him better than Deionte Thompson.
Will Pick: S Deionte Thompson Alabama – Safety seems
to be in the cards for the Chiefs at this spot and it is hard to argue against
it. It just boils down to preference and playing style and Thompson is the more
highly touted player it seems.
30.
Green Bay Packers (Via Saints) – The Packers got
their TE with their first pick, free agency supplemented most of their other
needs, so now they can either trade down, or grab the best available player.
Should Pick: OG Chris Lindstrom
Boston College – The more I watch Lindstrom, the more I think that he is
the perfect fit for what LaFluer wants to do on his offensive line. This will
allow for the Packers to have a strong starter at both guards and great depth.
Will Pick: OT Greg Little Ole Miss
– With Little sitting here the Packers go after him as he can play Guard at
first then move into RT or just take over RT if/when Bulaga gets hurt again.
That is not a knock on Bulaga but his body seems to be in shambles at this
point. Little is not complete at this point but he is too good to fall out of
the first round.
31.
Los Angeles Rams – The Rams lost some players in
free agency but are still in relatively good position to make another run at
the Super Bowl again next year.
Should Pick: DL Jeffery Simmons
Mississippi State – The Rams can afford to be patient and the upside of Simmons
is very high. If he is ready this year then great but there is no need to push
him and they will not have a shot at this type of talent next year so go with
the gamble here.
Will Pick: Same – Rolling the dice
here makes a ton of sense.
32.
New England Patriots – The Patriots, as per
usual, have been very low key in everything that they do. I have a suspicion
that they will not trade this pick like everybody seems to think that
they will. They have their eye on somebody and will not risk dropping out of
this spot. Plus, Belichick just loves to grab the guy he wants regardless of
what others seem to think.
Should Pick: Same - QB Drew Lock Missouri
– This is the only scenario I could play out in my head where Lock is going
to be successful in the NFL unless Andy Reid loses his mind and decides to have
two starting QBs on his team. In all seriousness, Lock is much further away
than many people think but has the potential to be great.
Will Pick: Same - QB Will Grier
West Virginia – Maybe I am just crazy, but I think that the Patriots are
eyeing Grier. Do not ask me why, but hey, give me a little credit here because
I had them taking Jimmy G in my live mock draft with Duarte the year he came
out. With that being said, I do not think Grier is going to be a good QB in the
NFL at all. He just
That
is a wrap on the Mock Draft 2 – Trades. Stay tuned for a few other features
between now and the magic Draft day!
