Three weeks out Mock Draft - Rounds 1 & 2

Now that things have settled down with free agency it is a perfect time to do Mock Draft 4.0.  With some great moves and a lot of head scratchers some things have changed.  I went a little bananas for somebody that works a full-time and part-time job and in this Mock Draft ventured into round 2 as well. But a wonderful girlfriend who loves to host scrapbooking parties allowed for a day of mock drafting.

For Mock Draft 4.0 I am sticking with the dual scenario of who I think they Will Pick and who I think they Should Pick.  This is solely my opinion based on the opinions of a numerous analysts as well as the wonderful sites that have scouting videos for me to watch and of course, youtube!  So take it for what it is I suppose. Shout out to Scott Wright at NFLdraftcountdown.com as well as Kyle Crabbs of NDT Scouting!  

1.       Tennessee Titans – Will pick: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  All along, this is the pick I have maintained. I think Tennessee has been very quiet about it and that they are hoping to drop down a few picks and still get Bosa.  Since there are no trades in my Mock, I am maintaining this pick.  Again, you need to look at an elite talent that can play either the 3-4 End position (more likely) or 3-4 LB.  Bosa will give it all on every play and should be a difference maker. He will be the JJ Watt of the Titans, not as good, but very good.

2.       Cleveland Browns – Will Pick: CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State.  Should Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  I have a growing suspicion that the Browns are not going to go with a QB here.  I think it is an awful decision but the front office seems to be very erratic.  With all of the turnover and new needs they have, it makes sense to trade down and draft at least pick up a few players if they are not going to go QB.  Ramsey is the hot pick right now and has the most flash but Cleveland needs to stop putzing around and bring in the right QB.  Ramsey will be good but he is not going to change the franchise, a QB could.  Wentz is high character, has shown that taking a step up in competition does not affect his play, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder which is important with a QB. I really like the way that he handles himself and he will be a good fit for the Browns.  I am starting to think of him as the anti-Manziel.  You know, talented and confident not cocky and questionable talent.  As per my previous notes, I also think it would not hurt to bring in a second QB later in the draft just in case whoever they pick falters and they need an alternative (the Gus Frerotte move).

3.       San Diego Chargers – Will Pick: OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  I am not sure that Tunsil is as good as everybody is making him out to be, but I think he is better than some that have been picked this high or higher, I am still stunned at the first four picks of the 2013 draft.  As per previous notes, if you watch the tape on Tunsil, you notice a guy that is looking for first his assignment and then for who is next.  I like a guy like that and so will his teammates.  When round 2 rolls around they should have their pick of safeties.  Again, the bottom line is that King Dunlap has always been inconsistent and should never have been given a second contract. Tunsil will help immediately and for the long haul.

4.       Dallas Cowboys – Will Pick: LB Myles Jack UCLA. Should Pick: CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State.  I am maintaining that the Cowboys take Myles Jack here.  Assuming that they do, they would be best off to move him to RB, because honestly the tape says that is his best position (of course nobody is going to do that).  Al Davis used to get all the press for wacky decisions but Jerry Jones has his moments too. Also keep in mind that Jones thinks more as a business man than a football person so the flash of an amazing athlete will entice him too much.  I really hope Myles Jack proves me wrong but I just do not see the same guy on tape that everybody is talking about.  I even called up our friend Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller and asked for one game that showed him taking over the game and was told it is all potential. Yeah, Aubrey Beavers, Torrance Marshall, et cetera looked like beasts as well.  With that said, I think Jalen Ramsey is the best player available here and it would be an upgrade over anybody on the team including last year’s first round pick, Byron Jones.  Again, he reminds me a bit of Charles Tillman but with a lot more athletic ability and has some Darrelle Revis in him.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars - Will Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Florida. Should Pick: Same.  The Jaguars are in need of some juice at the CB position. Now that I think that the Browns are going to be a little wacky, Ramsey is gone in both scenarios, but Hargreaves is still there and there is a massive drop off in CB talent after him. Hargreaves does not have the size or quite the power of Ramsey but he is feisty.  Again, I see some Chris McCalister in him and it will be a big piece to the puzzle.

 

6.       Baltimore Ravens – Will Pick: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon.  Should Pick: Same.  I really do not see this going any other way.  Buckner just seems like an ideal fit for the Ravens. While you would like somebody that could produce more stats, Buckner will be a guy with solid stats but he sets up plays for others. Buckner has a high ceiling and has shown that he can be that rare powerful 3-4 end with length.

7.       San Francisco 49ers – Will Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State. Should Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  This is where things start to get interesting.  If it was Goff here, I do not think the 49ers go that route.  A part of me still thinks that Kelly can get the QB he wants in round 2-4, but pressure from above will cause them to take the QB here.  In this scenario, it should go without saying that they take Wentz.  In the “Should Pick” scenario, this is a tough one for me; I am not totally convinced that Goff is going to be dynamite.  However, I think that Chip Kelly is likely the best coach in the NFL for his skills.  This pick has more to do with showing that you are willing to go after a potentially elite player than anything else. I seriously considered OT Jack Conklin here because I believe he is going to be a good player for 10 years.      

8.       Philadelphia Eagles (From Dolphins) – Will Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State.  Should Pick: Same.  The Eagles have really set themselves up for this pick by unloading some silly salaries and moving up in the draft.  Elliot will serve this team significantly better than DeMarco Murray at a much smaller price tag.  Elliot looks to have as much upside as anybody these last few years, I know Gurley played well last year but is still an injury concern, so this is a great pick for them.

9.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame.  Should pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky.  The Buccaneers need help on the Offensive Line.  Despite reports that Stanley has been working on technique and looking better, I am still not sure he is going to be any better than the guy he would be replacing in this scenario, Gosder Cherilus.  In fact Stanley may be somewhat of a similar player in the Cherilus has always been “almost but not quite” type of player.  With that said, I think that Spence is too good to pass up.  I know he has dropped a bit in a few analysts’ books but I really like him a lot.  The Buccaneers have been struggling to find a solid pass rush for a number of years.  Pairing Spence with a line that features Gerald McCoy will make both players better.

10.   New York Giants – Will Pick: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama.  Should Pick: Same.  With the upgrades that the Giants have made at pass-rusher, they will shift their focus over to LB, which they need to address as well.  Ragland is not going to bring some of the things that Beason brought the last few years but he should still bring leadership and swagger to the team.  I think a QB would be good here but I am not sure if this is the right environment for a guy like Connor Cook who is next up on my list.  With that said Ragland makes the most sense here and they can bring a QB in later.

11.   Chicago Bears – Will Pick: CB Eli Apple, Ohio State.  Should Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. The Bears have addressed ILB through free agency so they can move on to other needs. Eli Apple is the next man up at CB so they will go that route, though I would be thoroughly entertained if they went after Kendall Fuller instead so they could sport starting CBs that are brothers.  With that said, Apple is just missing something to me.  Conklin is not a particularly sexy pick here, but imagine the protection they will get with two nasty bookend tackles.  Conklin is a starting RT and LT in a pinch for the next 10 years.

12.   New Orleans Saints – Will Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole MIss.  Should Pick: Same.  Treadwell tested better than expected at his pro day, so I am a little higher on him now, but not that much higher.  In looking through the Saint’s roster, it seems like they need to help out their aging QB more than anything.  While I do not think Treadwell is the best WR in this draft, he is the best compliment to Cook and what they need at this point in the draft. For some reason, he reminds me a little bit of Malcolm Kelly so perhaps that is my red flag.

13.   Miami Dolphins – Will Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State. Should Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. For some reason OT has been a spot that the Dolphins have been struggling to fill.  Branden Alberts is very good when he is playing but he has had a lot of injuries.  Decker should be able to solidify it.  I am not confident that Decker is going to be dynamite and he looks like he plays a little too tall.  With that said, Ronnie Stanley is available in the “Should Pick” scenario and has too much talent to not take a chance on here.  I am still not sure if he will have the consistency that is needed in the NFL.

14.   Oakland Raiders – Will Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. Should Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU.  I am maintaining that in the “Will Pick” scenario Conklin is the perfect pick for them.  He is a grinder that reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga.  In the “should pick” scenario however, Conklin is gone and so is Stanley.  There is serious consideration here for Sheldon Rankins but Doctson could turn this into a dominant passing offense and either motivate Crabtree or push him out the door.  Doctson is my favorite WR in this draft but is more of the perfect complimentary than a primary target.

15.   Los Angeles Rams – Will Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  Should Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State. With Jared Goff sitting there, the Rams get their QB and are happy that they did not have to trade up.  I am not sure that this is the right place for Goff and I still think he is a bit rawer than others do.  In the “should pick” scenario, Wentz being gone at this point, Cook is there and this is really where he should go.  I know that the combine caused a few concerns with Cook but I think he is the real deal.  Either way, this pick is an absolute slam dunk touchdown goal! I really just do not see it with Paxton Lynch.  I am at a bit of a loss as to why Cook is not rated higher.

16.   Detroit Lions – Will Pick: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville. Should pick: Same. In the last mock draft I had Nkemdiche being picked here. But he has fallen a bit with some of his character issues and an alleged lack of true football desire has dropped him out of this spot.  As per previous notes, it is going to be tempting to go after a WR here but there are too many good DL here. Noah Spence is going to be tough to pass up because he has potentially elite talent.  Both Alabama DTs might be solid picks here as well.  In the end though, they go with the smartest move and take Sheldon Rankins. Haloti Ngata but he is really getting up there in years but can hold onto the run stuffing role for now and Rankins can be the pass rushing DT.

17.   Atlanta Falcons – Will Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky.  Should draft: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama. A pass rusher like Spence could change this team and the Falcons know it.  My guess is that they will be surprised that Spence is still here and snatch him up right away.  In the “Should Take” scenario, Spence is gone so it makes things a bit more interesting. A part of me thinks it would be very smart to take Corey Coleman here and create a very potent receiving core.  Another strong consideration should be for an OT like Taylor Decker or Jason Spriggs. But in the end, the best player available that can help them is A’Shawn Robinson.  I am going back and forth, as is the same with a lot of analysts, on Robinson and Reed, but Robinsons seems to be the guy that makes things happen more for others and will strengthen the run game as well as eat up some blockers for the pass rush. Sometimes, the most statistically unspectacular players are your best players.

18.   Indianapolis Colts – Will Pick: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia.  Should Take: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  The Colts need to fix their offensive line a little bit but in the past the Colts have not been afraid of guys that are a little undersized so they go with Floyd here.  I am not sure what to think of Floyd honestly, but he does have talent.  Some are even comparing him to Jason Taylor.  The Colts are a little weak and a little old at OLB so bringing in a guy that can be a part time player as he gets bigger and stronger his first year might not be a bad move.  In the “Should Take” Scenario, Taylor Decker is sitting there and he is worth the gamble at this point.  I am still wary because he looks like he does not play to his expected size and strength.

19.   Buffalo Bills – Will Take: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State.  Should Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Despite the fact that the Bills are talking QB, they will not take one here.  As per my last mock draft, pass rushing is something that Rex Ryan loves.  But I think Ogbah is going to be similar to former Florida State DE Jamal Reynolds.  There is strong consideration for either of the Clemson DEs here but in the end I am sticking with my last pick for them since Kyle Williams is getting a little long in the tooth.  In the “Should Take Scenario” Rankins is gone so Reed is the most versatile in that he can play 3-4 end, Nose, or nickel/dime lineman. 

20.   New York Jets – Will Take: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana.  Should Take: Same. The entire D’Brickashaw Ferguson thing is a bit confusing—one minute they are asking him for a pay cut and well, in the end they got that with a retirement.  He is not replaceable any time soon in that he was a leader and a good football player.  With that, the Jets will be in a slight panic mode here since they do not really have a replacement.  Jason Spriggs has as much potential as anybody in this draft but he is not a complete player just yet—which of course works both ways.  I put Spriggs, Stanley, and Decker all in the same category of high ceiling but a risk, though a part of me thinks Spriggs is the least risky of the three.  While this is a little high for Spriggs it is not totally out of the question and is really the route the Jets need to go at this point.

21.   Washington Redskins – Will Take: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  Should Take WR Corey Coleman, Baylor. Last year the Redskins showed that they go after the player they want.  In this case they will forgo what most people think of the next tier of DTs and go with the ridiculously strong Billings.  With that said, I think they should relieve themselves of the headache they have with DeSean Jackson and go with the speedy WR Corey Coleman.  Coleman could be that feisty elite WR that begins as a speedster and ends his career as a savvy WR.  He is not Steve Smith but maybe a level below Smith.

22.   Houston Texans – Will Take: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama.  Should Take: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  The Texans are going to feel like they are sitting in the Catbird seat here.  While they are disappointed that Billings is gone, A’Shawn Robinson is there for the taking.  They could also really use a WR but they can grab somebody later.  With Wilfork coming closer to the end of his career, they need to find another big man.  In the “Will Take” scenario Robinson is there for the taking in the “Should Take” Billings is there.  Either way the Texans add a strong big man to groom for the NT and address their other needs later.

23.   Minnesota Vikings-Will Take: WR Corey Coleman.  Should Take: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State.  Much to Zimmer’s dismay, he is going to have to concede to drafting an offensive player and rightfully so.  If one of the top four OT was still there, they should consider it, but they are not.  It is time to give up on Cordarrelle Patterson and bring in a true deep threat that is a legit receiver.  Since Coleman is gone in the “Should Take” scenario and there are no other legit options at WR at this point, the Vikings do in fact go defense and find an excellent complement to Harrison Smith with the best of the coverage safeties in Vonn Bell.  Again, I think Bell is comparable but not quite as good as Earl Thomas.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Will Pick: DT Robert Nkemdiche, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  While the Bengals need to replenish at WR, Nkemdiche falling this far and the Bengal’s penchant for taking chances on talented but troubled players makes perfect sense.  In a way, this is almost what Nkemdiche needs.  He know he has top 10 talent but needs a swift kick to really make it come out of him.  While Burfict lost his mind in that last game, taking a chance on him worked out for the Bengals.   

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Will Take: CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson. Should Take: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech. The “Will Take” scenario has not changed here but I still feel it is a major mistake.  While I am seeing a little bit more of why Alexander is highly rated, I like Fuller a bit better. Fuller does have the injury that he is coming off of but he still seems to be a bit stickier and smarter of a CB.

26.   Seattle Seahawks – Will Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Should Take: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson. In the “Will Take” scenario, Reed makes a lot of sense at a position of need.  I have a strange suspicion that Jaylon Smith might be snagged here as well, but that would be a tough one to call.  Without any top OT here and a growing need for pass rushers, Lawson makes the most sense among the players available as well as the Seahawks needs. I am not buying that Dodd is moving ahead of Lawson when it boils down to it.

27.   Green Bay Packers – Will Take: LB Darron Lee, Ohio State. Should Take: Same.  I went through this mock draft again; I just do not see somebody else that takes Lee until the Packers.  Lee is going to be the cover LB that the Packers have been missing.  Losing BJ Raji to retirement hurts, but there is no elite talent at DL at this point. If Billing was still available, I might be tempted to go that route.  It is interesting to me that until I did a mock draft, I did not really see how this happens or even think of Lee on the Packers but the more I look at it, the more it makes sense.

28.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will Take: WR Josh Doctson, TCU. Should Take: DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech.  Josh Doctson would make the most sense here for the Chiefs.  There is a lot of thought out there that CB is a big need, but maybe there is a reason that they let Sean Smith go—give Steven Nelson a shot in year 2.  In the “Should Take” scenario, there are a lot of other considerations here but Butler looks to be the one that can help them the most at this point.  They may be smart to take Cody Whitehair here too, but in the end Butler is the best pick of the guys available.

29.   Arizona Cardinals – Will Take: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech.  Should Take: OG Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  The Cardinals need another CB and with Fuller sitting right there, it is a great pick.  As I already stated, I think Fuller is going to be very good.  Jonathon Cooper was a mistake that they got rid of (perhaps go back in my old blog and see who predicted that one).  To remedy the mistake and strengthen the line, why not bring in Whitehair?

30.   Carolina Panthers – Will Take: OT Shon Coleman, Auburn.  Should Take: OL Vadal Alexander, LSU.  The Panthers were flat out exposed in the Super Bowl with their lack of talent on the OL. With the top tier OT off the board, they reach a bit for Coleman.  I am not sold on the next tier of OTs as they all seem to be reachers and waist benders so their technique is off a bit. Instead, they should adjust their focus to RT or G with drafting Alexander.  They can grab another OL in the next three rounds that should be comparable to any of the top LT here.

31.   Denver Broncos –Will Take: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis.  Should Take: Same.  Hopefully for the Broncos they do not trade for Kaepernick.  They made some mistakes in losing Osweiler but they can still get a solid QB here.  I am not sold on Lynch but he may be okay here.  However, they did bring in Mark Sanchez for next to nothing to hold down the fort.  Sanchez can manage the game for the time being.  With all the praise Elway received for the last few years, it looks like he really botched the Osweiler deal.  I still do not believe that Lynch is better than Cook, but he is not there in the “Should Take” scenario.  I also think there are QBs that have just as much potential later but by the end of the second they may not be there.  Therefore, this is the pick that the Broncos must make.

32.   The Patriots lost their 1^st round pick due to deflategate.

Round 2

1.       (32) Cleveland Browns—Will Take: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State.  Should Take: WR Braxton Miller, Ohio State. This is where the Brown’s brass turns around and says, “I told you so” with getting Connor Cook in the “Will Take” Scenario.  Remember, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Andy Dalton, and Derek Carr were all very good QBs that fell to the top of the 2^nd round.  In the “Should Take” scenario they drafted their QB in the first round.  While Braxton Miller is very raw at WR, he is further along than one would expect.  I have been hearing incredibly good things about his route running and passion for the position switch.  If the Browns pull off either scenario of picks they will be on their way to rebuilding.

2.       (33) Tennessee Titans-- Will Take: OT Germain Ifedi, Texas A & M.  Should Take: LB Myles Jack, UCLA. With taking Bosa in the first round, the Titans will shift their focus to the OL and take Ifedi.  Again, he looks like he reaches and waistbends at times so he needs to clean up his technique.  To me, this is a spot where you can gamble on a very talented player so in the “Should Take” scenario it makes sense to draft Myles Jack.  I fully understand not one person out there agrees with me.

3.       (34) Dallas Cowboys-- Will Take: CB William Jackson III, Houston.  Should Take: CB Mackensie Alexander.  The Cowboys will need to address CB and they go with who they perceive to be the best on the board.  I am not really sold on Jackson and he seems to be rising.  I actually think him and Eli Apple are very similar players on tape.  In the “Should Take” scenario the Cowboys take a gamble on Alexander here.

4.       (35) San Diego Chargers-- Will Take: S Darian Thompson, Boise State.  Should Take: Same. The Chargers need to replenish at Safety.  Thompson is a tough intimidating safety that can help them.  Since Bell is not available in the “Should Take” scenario, Thompson is not a bad consolation prize. He is not the athlete that Bell is but he is bigger and they have a similar feel for the game.

5.       (36) Baltimore Ravens-- Will Take: OL Cody Whitehair, Kansas State. Should Take: OL Germain Ifedi, Texas A&M. With the loss of Osemele there is a hole at guard and Whitehair has fallen to them.  In the “Should Take” scenario there is a bit more of a discussion.  A part of me would love to see the Ravens being patient and drafting Jaylon Smith here.  Another interesting option is Leonard Floyd.  In the end though, they need to add some OL help and Ifedi is probably the best option.

6.       (37) San Francisco 49ers-- Will Take: WR Braxton Miller, Ohio State. Should Take: CB Artie Burns, Miami. The 49ers need some help at both WR and CB now that they have addressed QB in the first round.  Braxton Miller could be a very interesting prospect at WR and I think is a significantly better bet than Will Fuller.  In the “Should Take” scenario Miller is not there so they look to the other side and grab Burns.  There are some varying opinions on Burns but I think he plays smart and has a higher upside than a lot of the other CBs in this draft.

7.       (38) Jacksonville Jaguars-- Will Take: LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame. Should Take: Same. This is going to be a pick that makes Jaguar fans crazy, then in 2017 they are going to see the amazing foresight of their coach and GM. Smith may never return to the player he was as it sounds like there is some ligament damage.  However, he has a lot of those things you cannot teach so the gamble here is going to make a very good 2017 Jags defense.

8.       (39) Tampa Bay Buccaneers-- Will Take: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson. Should Take: OT Shon Coleman, Auburn.  The way things fall in both scenarios is interesting.  The Buccaneers address two big needs in the first two rounds but in the “Will Take” scenario they gamble with talent in the first round and go safer in the second round.  In the “Should Take” scenario the opposite happens.  They would consider a CB as well but there is not one that is worth it here.

9.       (40) New York Giants -- Will Take: WR Michael Thomas, Ohio State. Should Take: TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas.  The Giants are looking for a compliment to Beckham as Cruz is at the end of his career.  However, they can also grab the best TE in the draft here to also compliment their WRs so that seems to be the smarter move in my eyes.

10.   (41) Chicago Bears-- Will Take: OL Vadal Alexander, LSU. Should Take: Kamalei Correa, Boise St. The Bears should continue to build their offensive line and Alexander is a solid G or RT.  They may consider CB here . With Hunter Henry going to the Giants in the previous pick they turn their attention to pass rush and Correa has been rising steadily.

11.   (42) Miami Dolphins-- Will Take: DE Kevin Dodd, Clemson. Should Take: Same. The Dolphins have two aging pass rushers. By taking Dodd here you can create a rotation that gives the older players a rest and gives Dodd some experience.

12.   (43) Los Angeles Rams-- Will Take: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State. Should Take: LB Leonard Floyd, Georgia. In the “Will Take” Scenario, Bell is still there and should be a nice addition to the defense. In the “Should Take” scenario the Rams benefit from Floyd being an odd fit in a lot of defenses.  But Fisher will find a way to use him.

13.   (44) Oakland Raiders-- Will Take: CB Artie Burns, Miami. Should Take: DE Carl Nassib, Penn State. In the Will take scenario, the Raiders addressed OT in the first round but there is not a worthy WR here so they fill a need with a talented CB to be the nickel corner or fight for a starting position.  In the Should Draft scenario, they drafted a WR in the first round but there are no OTs here.  Looking over their needs and what is here, they hedge their bets on Mario Edwards Jr, possibly not returning so they grab Nassib here.  If Edwards does come back fine, now they have a pretty interesting rotation on defense.

14.   (45) Los Angeles Rams-- Will Take:WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt. Should Take: CB Eli Apple, Ohio State.  In the “Will Take” scenario, Boyd is a good choice as he has solid hands and makes catches with his hands.  There are times where it looks like he should be a bit more physical but he is not nearly as boom or bust as the other WR the Rams have drafted over the years.  It is hard to even think that with all the WR they have drafted in the last five years (8 total) and having Kenny Britt on the team that this is a need but alas it is.  In the “Should Draft” scenario, this is about where Apple should go and he can be the number two CB in this situation which is what I feel he should be.

15.   (46) Detroit Lions-- Will Take: DE Carl Nassib, Penn State. Should Take: WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt. The Lions continue the rebuild of their Defensive Line by bringing in Nassib.  I am not totally sold on Nassib as he has some boom or bust potential to me, and I think a comparable WR to the ones available here can be found later in the draft.  In the “Should Draft” scenario, Boyd and Michael Thomas are available but Boyd is the safer pick here and compliments what the Lions have.

16.   (47) New Orleans Saints-- Will Take: OG Joshua Garnett, Stanford.  Should Take: Same. The offensive line needs a bit of juice so Garnett makes perfect sense here.  At this point we are pushing the second tier of OG so they need to take one while they are here.

17.   (48) Indianapolis Colts-- Will Take: DL Chris Jones, Mississippi State.  Should Take: OLB Kyler Fackrell, Utah State.  In the “Will Take” scenario, the Colts got their pass rusher in round 1.  That means they can move on to other needs.  There are no OT of note at this point so now and they need some help on the DL.  Jones has a lot of potential as a run-stopping DE who may be able to push the pocket a bit.  In the “Should Take” scenario they still need a pass rushing OLB so Fackrell should fit the bill.  I am not quite as high on him as others and in fact noticed a LB I like better on Utah State while watching him.

18.   (49) Buffalo Bills-- Will Take: DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech. Should Take: S Jalen Mills, LSU.  In the “Will Take” scenario, the Bills did not get their run stopping DL to eventually replace Kyle Williams and Butler is too talented to pass up.  In the “Should Take” scenario, Mills is not a top tier Safety but is a much needed upgrade from anybody they have.

19.   (50) Atlanta Falcons-- Will Take: LB Joshua Perry, Ohio State. Should Take: Same. The Falcons need to continue to build their defense and they need a LB.  Perry is most likely going to end up in the Middle for them.  In both scenarios, this is the right move.

20.   (51) New York Jets -- Will Take: QB Cardale Jones Ohio State. Should Take: Dak Prescott, Mississippi State. I like Dak Prescott and Christian Hackenberg better now, but Jones has a lot of talent once he gets some actual coaching. I think the Jets will go with potential.  The Jets have a QB friendly team in that they have WR that can compensate for off throws. A pass rushing OLB would be nice here but the well has dried up, so go with the QB.  With that said, I like Prescott more than Jones and a bit more than Hackenberg.  If we look at all three of these QBs in particular, Prescott is the one that has gotten better over time whereas Jones and Hackenberg regressed.

21.   (52) Houston Texans-- Will Take: RB Derrick Henry, Alabama. Should Take: Same. For the second round in a row a player that fits the Texans needs falls to them.  I am not sure what to think of Henry.  His skills are off the charts but he just does not seem like an every down player.  With that said, this is an excellent pick for the Texans in both scenarios.

22.   (53) Washington Redskins-- Will Take: WR Will Fuller, Notre Dame.  Should Take: DT Kenny Clark, UCLA.  In the “Will Take” Scenario, the Redskins got their DL in the first round so they go with a WR in the second.  I think Fuller is really being overrated because of his speed.  He needs a lot of work so I would avoid him.  In the “Should Take” scenario, they picked a WR in the first round, so they go with a DL.  I am giving Clark and edge over Austin Johnson as he seems to push the pocket a little better as well as disengage from blocks a bit better.

23.   (54) Minnesota Vikings-- Will Take: S Su’a Cravens USC. Should Take: WR Michael Thomas, Ohio State.  Again, this is a reverse of what happened in the “Should Take” “Will Take” scenarios from the first round.  However, I do not think Cravens is going to be very good.  His refusal to work out for teams rubs me the wrong way.  I am also not sure that he is a good compliment to Harrison Smith, and may have a better future as a LB.  Again, I am a little back and forth on Thomas but he is the best option at a spot of need at this point.

24.   (55) Cincinnati Bengals-- Will Take: WR Leonte Caroo, Rutgers. Should Take: Same.  The Bengals need to replenish what they lost in the offseason at WR.  Caroo should be an upgrade over both Jones and Sanu and he works out perfectly in both scenarios.

25.   (56) Seattle Seahawks-- Will Take:DE/LB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia. Should Take: OT Le’Raven Clark, Texas Tech. The Seahawks need to replenish their pass rush a little bit so they go with Jenkins who is a bit more of a pass rushing specialist at this point.  In the “Should Take” Scenario, the well is drying up on OT so they reach a little bit to get the best one on the board.  Plain and simple, it is amazing the Wilson has managed the way that he has with such a terrible OL.

26.   (57) Green Bay Packers-- Will Take: DT Kenny Clark, UCLA. Should Take: DL Austin Johnson. In the “Will Take” Scenario, the Packers land a perfect DL to continue to build their front.  With Clark not there and the players on the board in the “Should Take” scenario, the Packers roll the dice on Johnson, though he needs some coaching before he will be ready and he may not be much more than a very good run stuffer.

27.   (58) Pittsburgh Steelers-- Will Take: S Jalen Mills, LSU. Should Take: CB William Jackson III, Houston. The Steelers continue the rebuild of their secondary by taking Mills to fill the Safety role.  In the “Should Take” scenario it is going to be full on, mud on the wall technique.  Really though, it is that they will not have an opportunity to get two really talented CBs like this in the future. I am not positive that Jackson has the awareness but the talent is there.

28.   (59) Kansas City Chiefs-- Will Take: S Karl Joseph, West Virginia. Should Take: WR Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma. In the “Will Take” scenario, the Chiefs got their WR in the first round so they can move on to other needs. Joseph is a quality safety that should complement Eric Berry in the defensive backfield.  In the “Should Take” scenario they did not get their WR and that is a major need.  Thankfully there are still a few talented players to choose from.  There are some varying opinions on Shepard but I think he is going to be very good as he sees the field well.

29.   (60) New England Patriots-- Will Take: OT Jerald Hawkins, LSU.  Should Take: Same. The Patriots need to continue to protect Brady and Hawkins is a solid player—he is just a little on the light side for a left tackle.  In both scenarios, this is the logical pick.

30.   (61) New England Patriots-- Will Take: DL Jonathan Bullard, Florida.  Should Take: DE Chris Jones, Mississippi State.  There has been talk that Bullard could be one of the best in this draft but he is just not there yet.  This seems like a Patriots pick as they like to roll the dice on players like Bullard.  In the “Should Take” Scenario, Jones is still available and is a bit further along than Bullard so they go that route.

31.   (62) Carolina Panthers-- Will Take: OT Le’Raven Clark, Texas Tech. Should Take: DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State.  When you are exposed on a national level it really amplifies that exposure so the Panthers need to keep drafting OTs to fill the cracks.  However, in the “Should Take” scenario, there is nobody worth taking at this point so they should roll the dice with a pass rusher.  There is some temptation to take Jordan Jenkins here, but he may be more of a 3-4 OLB than a DE so Calhoun makes a bit more sense here.

32.   (63) Denver Broncos-- Will Take: TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas. Should Take: DL Adolphus Washington.  In the “Will Take” scenario, this seems to be too good to be true for the Broncos as they fill the gap from a few years ago and creating a more QB friendly environment by grabbing Henry here.  In the “Should Take” scenario, there is some thought to go after an ILB but Washington is a good fit to replace Malik Jackson as a push the pocket 3-4 end.

So that does it for my first ever 2 round mock draft!  It is amazing what happens when you start to look at how things may fall and pick players that you think are good fits for different teams.  Keep tuning in, especially Packer and Bear fans….

Post Free Agency Frenzy Mock Draft!

After a crazy first week of Free Agency the scope has changed a bit.  We had some insane money go to above average players and some shrewd moves too. I do not know how the Jaguars can warrant paying Malik Jackson all of that money and I am scratching my head at paying Chase Daniels and Sam Bradford a combined $25 Million dollars.  The Eagles spent the week freeing up cap space and then ate up a bunch of it so I am perplexed.  The Texans should be commended for taking two players at essentially the going rate for a good player at both positions in signing Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. 

For Mock Draft 3.0 I am sticking with the dual scenario of who I think they Will Pick and who I think they Should Pick. 

1.       Tennessee Titans – Will pick: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  I am still maintaining that this will and should be the pick here.  As per last week’s notes, a lot of thought out there is that the Titans will go with offense but there are times when you need to look at an elite talent that can play either the 3-4 End position (more likely) or 3-4 LB.  Bosa will give it all on every play and should be a difference maker. I know he did not test as well with the 40 at the combine but we all know that it is an overrated drill.  The only thing it changes is that he is likely to be more of a DE than OLB.    

2.       Cleveland Browns – Will Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  Should Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  No change from last week.  However, with the way that things have gone in Cleveland last week, the Browns need to find somebody willing to trade up if possible.  They had a lot of holes, did not fill any of the holes, and lost a lot of players they needed to keep.  If nobody is willing to trade they go with Goff.  As per last week’s notes, I like Goff a little better now, but there is something in Goff’s game tape that bothers me about the way he throws the ball.  He just does not seem as far ahead as Wentz to me. Again, Wentz is high character, has shown that taking a step up in competition does not affect his play, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder which is important with a QB. I really like the way that he handles himself and he will be a good fit for the Browns.  I am starting to think of him as the anti-Manziel.  You know, talented and confident not cocky and questionable talent.  I also think it would not hurt to bring in a second QB later in the draft just in case whoever they pick falters and they need an alternative (the Gus Frerotte move).

3.       San Diego Chargers – Will Pick: OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  With the Chargers signing Casey Hayward (it happened literally as I was typing this up), it solidifies my thoughts on this pick. As per my previous notes, Tunsil is not Orlando Pace but I like his temperament on the field a lot.  If you watch some of his tape, you notice a guy that is looking for first his assignment and then for who is next.  I like a guy like that and so will his teammates.  When round 2 rolls around they should have their pick of safeties.  Again, the bottom line is that King Dunlap has always been inconsistent and should never have been given a second contract. Tunsil will help immediately and for the long haul.

4.       Dallas Cowboys – Will Pick: LB Myles Jack UCLA. Should Pick: CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State.  I am maintaining that the Cowboys take Myles Jack here.  I looked further into Myles Jack and I saw a few more splash plays but I still do not see the player that everybody is talking about.  I am also starting to think he may be a better RB prospect than LB prospect.  I just really feel that the Cowboys are going to take him even with bringing back McClain—he just seems like a Jerry Jones kind of player.  With that said, I think Jalen Ramsey is the best player available here and it would be an upgrade over anybody on the team including last year’s first round pick, Byron Jones.  Again, he reminds me a bit of Charles Tillman but with a lot more athletic ability and has some Darrelle Revis in him.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars - Will Pick: DB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State. Should Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Florida.  Since Ramsey is there in the “Will Pick” scenario, the Jaguars grab him here and it helps to solidify their defense.  Since he is gone in the “Should Pick” scenario, Hargreaves is not a bad consolation prize and in many years would be the top CB, he just does not have the size or quite the power of Ramsey.  Either way, it is a nice pick here.  Again, I see some Chris McCalister in him.

 

6.       Baltimore Ravens – Will Pick: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon.  Should Pick: Same. There is no change since last week.  Buckner is the right pick for the Ravens. Even with Spence available at this point, Buckner fits what the Ravens need a bit more. Buckner has a high ceiling and has shown that he can be that rare powerful 3-4 end with length.

7.       San Francisco 49ers – Will Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Should Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State.  I know there is a lot of thought here about taking a QB.  It is really going to be up to Kelly to convince Baalke that he can use the QBs they have and grab somebody he can mold later.  With that said, I am maintaining both picks from last week.  As per last week’s notes, I am having a hard time not putting Conklin ahead of Stanley.  I think there is such a huge gap between Tunsil and these two but after this there are a lot of guys that are pretty similar.  I give Conklin the edge because I see a better player who is more refined. 

8.       Philadelphia Eagles (From Dolphins) – Will Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State.  Should Pick: Same.  If the Eagles had not invested so much in QB already I would say that this is a slam dunk for taking a QB.  I think that the trade up to this slot is more about freeing up some cash and securing the player that they wanted in this draft.  Running Back has strangely been a bit devalued in the draft due to some busts.  However, it really should not be and this will be the resurgence of that.  I do believe that Elliot is the best looking RB prospect (last year Gurly was a gamble due to injury) to come out in the last few years.

9.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky. Should pick: Same.  The draft falls the way that the Buccaneers needed it to in both scenarios.  Spence has fallen a little bit due to some disappointment at the Combine.  However, Spence has elite talent and unlike some of the guys that get in trouble.  He has shown that he is willing to get help and change his ways.  The Buccaneers have been struggling to find a solid pass rush for a number of years.  Pairing Spence with a line that features Gerald McCoy will make both players better.

10.   New York Giants – Will Pick: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama.  Should Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  With the upgrades that the Giants have made at pass-rusher, they will shift their focus over to LB, which they need to address as well.  Ragland is not going to bring some of the things that Beason brought the last few years but he should still bring leadership and swagger to the team.  Again, I think it would be smart to grab a QB of the future here since they will not have an opportunity like this one.  As per what was stated last week, everybody revels at transitions like Favre to Rodgers or what we thought we would see with Manning to Osweiler.  But in those cases, especially the former, it takes foresight.  Taking one of the top two now and having a good QB for another 10 years or more will look genius.  Plus when his next contract comes up, you can get him back for a good rate since he has not totally shown his value yet and you give him time to develop mentally and physically.

11.   Chicago Bears – Will Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Flordia.  Should Pick: DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss. The Bears have brought in two MLBs in the first week of free agency.  They can now shift their focus elsewhere.  In the “Will Pick” Scenario Hargreaves is there and would further support their defense.  In the “Should Pick” scenario Hargreaves is not there.  This is an interesting scenario because the Bears could also use an OT.  However, Nkemdiche might be a perfect 3-4 DE and nickel and dime rusher and is too good to pass up at this point.

12.   New Orleans Saints – Will Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole MIss.  Should Pick: Same.  In looking through the Saint’s roster, it seems like they need to help out their gaining QB more than anything.  While I do not think Treadwell is the best WR in this draft, he is the best compliment to Cook and what they need at this point in the draft.

13.   Miami Dolphins (From Eagles) – Will Pick:  CB Eli Apple, Ohio State. Should Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Even with the addition of Maxwell the Dolphins will still try to address CB.  The issue is that Apple is not the answer. I am having a hard time seeing him as an elite player, he looks more like a player with potential who needs to learn a bit still.  With how hurt Brandon Albert has been during his career, though he did start 14 games last year, it might not be a bad idea to load up with Stanley here and play him at guard until he is ready to shift over to OT.

14.   Oakland Raiders – Will Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. Should Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  As was the case last week, in the “Will Pick” scenario Conklin is the perfect pick for them.  He is a grinder that reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga.  In the “should pick” scenario however, Conklin is gone and so is Stanley.  Given that they have brought in Bruce Irving it is going to be interesting to see what their focus will be here.  In the “Should Pick” scenario there are a few good players for the Raiders, any of the top three DL available here, though I like Sheldon Rankins the best here, Reggie Ragland, though Heeney is better than advertised, taking a WR here since Crabtree has always been temperamental, or addressing the Offensive Line.  In the end, Taylor Decker is the best OL left so they go that route.

15.   Los Angeles Rams – Will Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  Should Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State. There is no change from last week.  It sounds like the Rams will be in this type of scenario and it is perfect for them.  In the “will pick” scenario Wentz is there for the taking and would be a steal.  In the “should pick” scenario, Wentz being gone at this point, Cook is there and this is really where he should go.  I know that the combine caused a few concerns with Cook but I think he is the real deal.  Either way, this pick is an absolute slam dunk touchdown goal! I really just do not see it with Paxton Lynch.  I am at a bit of a loss as to why Cook is not rated higher.

16.   Detroit Lions – Will Pick: DT Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss. Should pick: Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  With the retirement of Calvin Johnson, WR seems like a priority even with the signing of Marvin Jones.  The Lions resigned Haloti Ngata but he is really getting up there in years.  With the quality of DT here it is going to be tough to pass them up, even with some good DE there, DT makes the most sense.  Nkemdiche is the top DT prospect and would fit really well next to Ngata.  In the “Should Pick” scenario, Nkemdiche is gone.  Jarran Reed, A’shawn Robinson, and Sheldon Rankins are all in group 2 of the DTs with Nkemdiche being in group 1 talent wise.  It really scares me when two players from the same school at the same position who play literally next to each other are top prospects.  Both will probably be good but there is always a risk.  Reed is probably the safer of the two and the better player depending on who you ask.  With Rankins though, you are getting a very quick player who is a better pass rusher than run stopper but he is pretty good in both areas.  I just see Rankins as the better player here because he is more dynamic than the other two.

17.   Atlanta Falcons – Will Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  Should draft: Same.  I was very confused by the signing of Mohammed Sanu, he is a possession receiver that drops the ball?  With that signing it shifts the Falcons needs as well.  While it may be odd to bring in two players from the school at the same position two years in a row, Clemson did sport a pretty fantastic pass rush this year.  Kevin Dodd is slowly getting moved ahead of Lawson, but there is a reason as to why Lawson was considered the better player pre-combine, therefore, Lawson should be the pick.

18.   Indianapolis Colts – Will Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  Should Take: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama .  The Colts need to keep rebuilding their offensive line and Decker being available here is a gift.  While there are plenty of DL that could really help them, they will have a shot at somebody there later.  In the “Should Pick” scenario, Decker is gone and Ragland would be too good to pass up at a position that is getting a little old and could use some juice like Ragland.

19.   Buffalo Bills – Will Take: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State.  Should Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Pass-rushing is something that Rex Ryan loves.  As per what I stated last week, Ogbah is not going to be good in the NFL, he is one trick pony that looks to stop when the action is going the other way.  Kyle Williams has been an overachiever for a long time but he is getting a little long in the tooth.  With some may top notch DL available at this point the Bills should take the best one available.  In the “Should Take Scenario” Rankins is gone so Reed is the most versatile in that he can play 3-4 end, Nose, or nickel/dime lineman. 

20.   New York Jets – Will Take: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia.  Should Take: Same. No change from last week and if anything, their free agent moves should solidify this pick, unless of course they do in fact lose Fitzpatrick, then they would have to reach for a QB here.  Floyd needs to fill out his frame and comes with a lot of risk in that he is spindly and comes from a program where OLBs have been very hit or miss.  However, the Jets are a team that has big men to cover up for Floyd and protect him while he gets better and bigger.  If Floyd is to go to any team, this is the one team that seems to be a great fit for him and his current skill set.

21.   Washington Redskins – Will Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Should Take: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama. With their defensive line needing a boost and with a lot of the top players gone, Reed is the best pick here in the “Will Take” Scenario.  In the “Should Take” Reed is gone, Robinson makes sense here.  With that said, there should be serious consideration for either WR Corey Coleman at this point.  The Redskins have some WRs that are role players or average at this point.  Jackson is dynamic sometimes but how long is he going to last?    

22.   Houston Texans – Will Take: WR, Corey Coleman, Baylor.  Should Take: WR Josh Doctson, TCU.  No team may have helped themselves more than the Texans in Free Agency.  With that said, they could use some help on the OL.  Cody Whitehair is a consideration, but why not give that new QB some weapons?  Coleman and Doctson are both very good players—Coleman has better long speed and Doctson is a little savvier.  I like Doctson because he plays with instincts and smarts so I would pick him over Coleman but either way it is a solid pick.

23.   Minnesota Vikings-Will Take: DE Kevin Dodd, Clemson.  Should Take: G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Much like last week, I think Zimmer is going to be staring at a pass rusher that he cannot pass up but this time it is Dodd.  The defense is stacked for the most part so I am not sure if that is a necessity or a luxury at this point.  They should also consider Vonn Bell here but even with the addition of Alex Boone, I am looking at the interior of their offensive line and thinking, why not grab your flavor of the top 2 guards and be done with it? It is not clear as to if they are going to use Boone at guard or Tackle but why not strengthen the line as a whole?  Guards are never a sexy pick but interior pressure for a mildly mobile QB is always tough so solidifying the position here is a great idea.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Will Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU. Should Pick: WR Corey Coleman, Baylor.  The Bengals are moving on without Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu so they need to replenish at WR.  With Doctson available here in the “Will Pick” scenario they go that direction.  Since he is gone in the “Should Pick” scenario they go with the next best WR in Coleman.

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Will Take: CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson. Should Take: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State. No change from last week.  As per last week’s notes, I really wanted to see the player that Alexander thinks he is on the field.  I even put aside the fact that he was from Clemson and a DB.  I just do not see the player that others are talking about on film.  He seems lazy in his zones and lacks instincts.  Part of me thinks that it may be a little high for him, but he is the best safety of this type in the draft, so go for it.  Bell is not big or intimidating but if you watch him on tape, he sees the play and reads it very well.  He reminds me a bit of Earl Thomas when he came out of Texas but not as refined, but perhaps a very similar potential.

26.   Seattle Seahawks – Will Take: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama.  Should Take: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana. In the “Will Take” scenario, Robinson is too good to pass up at a position of need.  However, the smarter pick is to finally get protection for Wilson and the well will dry up by round 2 with the run on OTs. Spriggs is not dynamite but he is the best OT here and he is better than what they have at RT and possibly LT at this point.

27.   Green Bay Packers – Will Take: LB Darron Lee, Ohio State. Should Take: Same.  No change from last week.  I keep wondering if I am crazy in thinking he will be here. Though I really like some linebackers later in this draft, Nick Vigil in particular, if the draft falls this way Lee is the right pick.  Lee is still an odd ball to a degree but I think there is a great LB in there and he will solidify the dime package. The temptation to take a TE here is there but TEs can be found later in the draft.  Lee is of similar Nick Barnett when he came out of Oregon, but a better athlete and he fits the Will Linebacker position so he can be there during Nickel and Dime defenses as well.

28.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will Take: CB Kendall Hunter, Virginia Tech. Should Take: Same.  A wide receiver would be nice here but the next best WR would be a gamble here.  Instead they go with the third best cornerback in Kendall Hunter.  I really like Hunter’s temperament on the field and I think he plays smart.  He is coming off an injury that is minor but he would be an excellent replacement for the loss of Sean Smith.

29.   Arizona Cardinals – Will Take: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  Should Take: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  The Cardinals need some youth on their DL as well as a CB.  With the top CBs gone and a player in Rankins that is too good to pass up at this point, it is an easy pick.  However, in the “Should Pick” scenario, Rankins is not there.  With that said, the Cardinals have taken chances on players in the past and Billings just needs a little motivation.  With their current needs, Billings is a solid pick.

30.   Carolina Panthers – Will Take: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana.  Should Take: OL Vadal Alexander. No change from last week, as per last week’s notes, the Panthers rolled the dice and ended up losing in the end by going with suspect OTs last year.  With Spriggs sitting there in the “Will Take” scenario it is a no brainer.  However, in the “Should Take” scenario the next couple of OTs are not worth it.  However, Alexander played Tackle in college and may be a nice fit at RT for the Panthers.  Worst case scenario, they get better in the interior of the line which still helps them out a lot.

31.   Denver Broncos –Will Take: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis.  Should Take: Same.  The Broncos had a really bad week to say the least.  However, they did bring in Mark Sanchez for next to nothing to hold down the fort.  Sanchez can manage the game for the time being.  With all the praise Elway received for the last few years, it looks like he really botched the Osweiler deal.  Due to this, it is cause for a little bit of panic and grabbing a QB that may be nothing more than a decent starter.  I still do not believe that Lynch is better than Cook, but he is not there in the “Should Take” scenario.  I also think there are QBs that have just as much potential later but by the end of the second they may not be there.  Therefore, this is the pick that the Broncos should make.

32.   The Patriots lost their 1^st round pick due to deflategate.

Thank you for reading this week!

Post-Combine/Cusp of Free Agency frenzy Mock Draft

After the Combine, a few things have come out with some players and some guys that I am moving up or down.  Teams are already agreeing in principle to some pretty dumb things too! This mock draft will feature who I think they will pick and who I think they should pick. The medical news about Jaylen Smith changes things.  You have to feel really bad for him.  Some of my notes will be the same or similar to last posting but there are some additions as well.

1.       Tennessee Titans – Will pick: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  A lot of thought out there is that the Titans will go with offense but there are times when you need to look at an elite talent that can play either the 3-4 End position (more likely) or 3-4 LB.  Bosa will give it all on every play and should be a difference maker. I know he did not test as well with the 40 at the combine but we all know that it is an overrated drill.  The only thing it changes is that he is likely to be more of a DE than OLB.    

2.       Cleveland Browns – Will Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  Should Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State . Even with Goff looking impressive at the combine, I still put Wentz ahead of him.  I like Goff a little better now, but there is something in Goff’s game tape that bothers me about the way he throws the ball.  He just does not seem as far ahead as Wentz to me. Again, Wentz is high character, has shown that taking a step up in competition does not affect his play, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder which is important with a QB. I really like the way that he handles himself and he will be a good fit for the Browns.  I am starting to think of him as the anti-Manziel.  You know, talented and confident not cocky and questionable talent.

3.       San Diego Chargers – Will Pick: OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  I keep thinking about this one but if the draft fell this way, they need the top offensive lineman more than a DB and the gap between the top OT and the second OT seems large to me.  Tunsil is not Orlando Pace but I like his temperament on the field a lot.  If you watch some of his tape, you notice a guy that is looking for first his assignment and then for who is next.  I like a guy like that and so will his teammates.  When round 2 rolls around they should have their pick of safeties.  Weddle seems to be all but gone and Jalen Ramsey could be really interesting here but I just do not see them going that route.  Again, the bottom line is that King Dunlap has always been inconsistent and should never have been given a second contract.  Tunsil will help immediately and for the long haul.

4.       Dallas Cowboys – Will Pick: Myles Jack LB UCLA. Should Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky.  I keep watching tape on Jack and I do not see what everybody is talking about.  He is a great athlete and he has swagger, but I don’t see the command or taking over the games.  Maybe I am watching the wrong games?  Spence did not test as well as expected at the Combine and Jack tested better than expected at this point and looks to be able to recover.  As per what I said last week, the Cowboys were burned bad last year by taking Randy Gregory (though not that bad) so why take another pass rusher who has had a troubled past?  Spence is an elite talent, he has stayed out of trouble, and wants to keep it that way.  Gregory is either addicted to drugs, immaturity, or ignorance or a combination of all three?  How else can you explain somebody that cannot cut out the stuff long enough for a one year NFL career?  Spence has improved and Gregory kept getting in trouble so those were two different situations and Spence is the right player here. I know he did not test the way they would have liked at the combine but his tape is too good to pass up at this point. I see a much higher ceiling with Spence and I think he is going in the right direction now. There should be a lot of thought here for Jalen Ramsey as well, but typically it is the pass rush that makes the secondary better and it is harder to find a top pass rusher.  CB can come in round 2.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars - Will Pick: DB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State. Should Pick: Same.  I am not sure if Ramsey is really that much like Charles Woodson.  He reminds me a bit of Charles Tillman but with a lot more athletic ability and has some Darrelle Revis in him. The Jaguars are riddled with okay but not great talent at both CB and S.  At this point, it would be a mistake to pass up on an elite talent like Ramsey.

 

6.       Baltimore Ravens – Will Pick: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon.  Should Pick: Same. Even with Spence available at this point (in the will pick category), Buckner fits what the Ravens need a bit more. Buckner has a high ceiling and has shown that he can be that rare powerful 3-4 end with length.

7.       San Francisco 49ers – Will Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Should Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State.  I am having a hard time not putting Conklin ahead of Stanley.  I think there is such a huge gap between Tunsil and these two but after this there are a lot of guys that are pretty similar.  I give Conklin the edge because I see a better player who is more refined.  Think of it this way, the Cowboys gambled on Tyron Smith and won, but it was still a gamble.  I did not think Smith was worth the gamble at the time and was wrong but how many times do you really want to gamble this high in the draft?  This is an unfortunate desperation move but the 49ers need to fix their depleted OL. With Kaepernick currently being the cocky person that he is and refusing to play, this seems like a good time to grab a QB.  However, Kelly can find the right QB for him later in the draft since he relies on a skill set that is not quite as coveted by other teams.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Will Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida. Should Pick: Same. Even with the addition of Maxwell the Dolphins need some good young talent at CB and Hargreaves is a good fit.  There is a major gap in talent between the top two CBs in this draft and the next tier.  They could still get a talented guy in round 2 but Hargreaves might have the chance to be elite and the others available will only be good.  He reminds me a bit of Chris McAlister.

9.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky. Should Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  If things fall the way that they do here, Spence is not available in the “should pick” category so Lawson is the next man up.  As per what I stated last week I am rarely a fan of Clemson defensive players in the first round, history shows that they have not worked out too well for the last 25 years or so.  With that said, the Buccaneers need some pass rush from the ends and Lawson strings moves together to be as relentless as possible. There is certainly some thought on Emmanuel Ogbah, but from what I saw of him, his motor seems questionable.  I want to see a guy that plays through every play and plays for the play not the sack. Ogbah just reminds me too much of Jamal Reynolds.

10.   New York Giants – Will Pick: DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss.  Should Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  It is hard to argue against Nkemdiche being the right pick here.  In the Will Pick Scenario Goff is gone but Wentz is there so that would also be a good pick.  But why a QB when you have Eli Manning?  In all fairness Manning just had an off 2013 but I still think he is a time bomb, but he is the QB for a few more years.  The Giants will likely not have a shot at a potential top tier QB for a while so why not bite the bullet now and take one.  Everybody revels at transitions like Favre to Rodgers or what we may see with Manning to Osweiler.  But in those cases, especially the former, it takes foresight.  Taking one of the top two now and having a good QB for another 10 years or more will look genius.  Plus when his next contract comes up, you can get him back for a good rate since he has not totally shown his value yet and you give him time to develop mentally and physically. With that said, Nkemdiche would also be an excellent pick for the Giants.

11.   Chicago Bears – Will Pick: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama.  Should Pick: Same. The Bears need some swagger at the middle linebacker position and Ragland makes too much sense to pass up at this point.  He will never be the coverage type and that is not easy to find but he will be a great leader.

12.   New Orleans Saints – Will Pick: CB Eli Apple, Ohio State.  Should Pick: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech. The last mock draft I was a little goofy with my Saints pick.  I still think bringing in Ezekiel Elliot would be smart but the Saints really need a CB worse.  I am not buying into Eli Apple, but there are a lot of people out there that like him.  I would be tempted to take a chance on a few players here but Fuller is my #3 CB in this draft.  He is coming off of injury but he should be fine.  I just do not see it with Apple and Mackensie Alexander. 

13.   Philadelphia Eagles – Will Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  Should Pick:  DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss.  At this point, Nkemdiche is too talented to pass up in the “should pick” scenario.  It would be hard to argue the Decker pick as they need to rid themselves of the overly cocky Jason Peters and get a good young tackle.  It is a flip of the coin as to if you would pick Decker at RT or LT with Lane Johnson on the team but he should fit either one.  Again though, I like Jack Conklin better.

14.   Oakland Raiders – Will Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. Should Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame.  In the will pick scenario Conklin is the perfect pick for them.  He is a grinder that reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga.  In the “should pick” scenario however, Conklin is gone.  This was a tough call for me because I really also like Sheldon Rankins for the Raiders but with the hybrid scene that they run, it is a little harder to project him here.  Still, it was a battle for me because Rankins could really solidify the pass rush with Mack and Edwards also on the field with him.  In the end though, the Raiders need to take a chance on a top OL and Stanley gets the slight edge here over Decker.

15.   Los Angeles Rams – Will Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  Should Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State. It sounds like the Rams will be in this type of scenario and it is perfect for them.  In the “will pick” scenario Wentz is there for the taking and would be a steal.  In the “should pick” scenario, Wentz being gone at this point, Cook is there and this is really where he should go.  I know that the combine caused a few concerns with Cook at the combine but I think he is the real deal.  Either way, this pick is an absolute slam dunk touchdown goal!

16.   Detroit Lions – Will Pick: DT Jarran Reed DT, Alabama. Should Pick: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  The Lions need to rebuild their defensive line and there are some very good DL this year and any way you slice it, even if Calvin Johnson retires, the Lions have to look at DL here.  Jarran Reed, A’shawn Robinson, and Sheldon Rankins are all in group 2 of the DTs with Nkemdiche being in group 1 talent wise.  It really scares me when two players from the same school at the same position who play literally next to each other are top prospects.  Both will probably be good but there is always a risk.  Reed is probably the safer of the two and the better player depending on who you ask.  With Rankins though, you are getting a very quick player who is a better pass rusher than run stopper but he is pretty good in both areas.  I just see Rankins as the better player here because he is more dynamic than the other two.

17.   Atlanta Falcons – Will Pick: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State.  Should Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU.  I had a very hard time figuring out who they may take here.  I think that Quinn might want to add even more juice to the pass rush.  However, I think that is a mistake both in concept and in player in this case.  Ogbah is a one trick pony with a questionable motor.  On the other hand, the first round is a time to grab a difference maker.  With the release of Roddy White and the players that are in this draft I think that it would be very astute to grab a WR here.  I like Corey Coleman but the more I watch Doctson, the more I think he might be the best WR in this draft.  He lacks some of the physical tools that Coleman and Laquon Treadwell have, but his instincts, hands, and quickness put him ahead of them. 

18.   Indianapolis Colts – Will Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State.  Should Pick: Same .  The Colts will have a shot at a top tier talent.  I know in my last post I said this is not the right spot but looking at the players in this draft and how inserting a top RB could change their offense, it is too tempting.  Elliot has all the running talent and the instincts you want in a RB.  Remember, the Colts were desperate enough to trade away for Trent Richardson a few years ago.  Elliot is a far superior talent to Richardson when he came out and was drafted at the top of the draft.

19.   Buffalo Bills – Will Pick: DL Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  Should Pick: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Kyle Williams has been an overachiever for a long time but he is getting a little long in the tooth.  With some may top notch DL available at this point the Bills should and will take the best one available.  In the “Should Take Scenario” Rankins is gone so Reed is the most versatile in that he can play 3-4 end, Nose, or nickel/dime lineman. 

20.   New York Jets – Will Pick: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia.  Should Pick: Same. While I think the Jets should throw that curveball here and take a QB, nobody that is worthwhile is there.  Floyd needs to fill out his frame and comes with a lot of risk in that he is spindly and comes from a program where OLBs have been very hit or miss.  However, the Jets are a team that has big men to cover up for Floyd and protect him while he gets better and bigger.  If Floyd is to go to any team, this is the one team that seems to be a great fit for him and his current skill set.

21.   Washington Redskins – Will Pick: A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama.  Should Pick: Same. With their defensive line needing a boost and with a lot of the top players gone, Robinson makes the most sense in both scenarios.  With that said, there should be serious consideration for either WRs Laquon Treadwell or Corey Coleman at this point.  The Redskins have some WRs that are role players or average at this point.  Jackson is dynamic sometimes but how long is he going to last?    

22.   Houston Texans – Will Pick: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis.  Should Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  The Texans will be jumping for joy to get Lynch here, but I really do not think they should be.  I have never been a big fan of Flacco and Lynch seems like a less refined version of him.  He could be a nice QB but he is not a game changer.  I also have some suspicions that they will reach for RB Derrick Henry here.  Again, a nice player but he is really not worth this slot and has a degree of risk.  With that said they need an OT with Duane Brown getting up there in age and to fill in the other side.  When round 2 rolls around, the QB needy teams are going to have taken their guy so they may have a shot in round 2 at Lynch or even better Dak Prescott (maybe even the third for him who knows) whom I like better than Lynch.

23.   Minnesota Vikings-Will Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  Should Pick: G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Zimmer is going to be staring at a pass rusher that he cannot pass up in Lawson.  The defense is stacked for the most part so I am not sure if that is a necessity or a luxury at this point.  I am looking at their interior of their offensive line and thinking, why not grab your flavor of the top 2 guards and be done with it?  Guards are never a sexy pick but interior pressure for a mildly mobile QB is always tough so solidifying the position here is a great idea.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Will Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss. Should Pick: WR Corey Coleman, Baylor.  The Bengals are letting both Marvin Jones (It looks like free agency is going to overpay for him) and Mohammed Sanu walk it appears.  That mean that they have a gap to fill.  It sounds like they may be in need of some DBs as well but Treadwell and Coleman are far too dynamic and potential excellent compliments to AJ Green to let them slide past this slot.  I am not totally sold on Treadwell and I think Coleman has a higher upside so I would go with him over Treadwell.

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Will Pick: CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson. Should Pick: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State. I really wanted to see the player that Alexander thinks he is on the field.  I even put aside the fact that he was from Clemson and a DB.  I just do not see the player that others are talking about on film.  He seems lazy in his zones and lacks instincts.  Bell might be a little high here because he is more of a coverage type of guy but the Steelers need to add juice in all the Defensive Backfield.  Bell is not big or intimidating but if you watch him on tape, he sees the play and reads it very well.   

26.   Seattle Seahawks – Will Pick: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  Should Pick: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana. The Seahawks have never shied away from players with issues but that have a lot of talent.  Billings would be a nice fit for them.  However, the smarter pick is to finally get protection for Wilson and the well will dry up by round 2 with the run on OTs. Spriggs is not dynamite but he is the best OT here and he is better than what they have at RT and possibly LT at this point.

27.   Green Bay Packers – Will Pick: LB Darron Lee, Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  Though I really like some linebackers later in this draft, if the draft falls this way Lee is the right pick.  Lee is still an odd ball to a degree but I think there is a great LB in there and he will solidify the dime package. The temptation to take a TE here is there but TEs can be found later in the draft.  Lee is of similar ilk to Nick Barnett but a better athlete and he fits the Will Linebacker position so he can be there during Nickel and Dime defenses as well.

28.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU. Should Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss.  If Doctson is there, this is a slam dunk, as I have expressed already, I think he might be quietly the best WR in this draft.  The chiefs have been getting by with little to no talent at WR until last year and they still needed help so there should be little hesitation to take a target here.  With Doctson and Coleman being gone in the “Should Take” scenario they go with the next of the top tier WRs in Treadwell.   

29.   Arizona Cardinals – Will Pick: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech.  Should Pick: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  The Cardinals need some youth on their DL as well as a CB.  Fuller would be a great pick here to play opposite Peterson. However, with Fuller gone in the “Should Take” scenario, Billings makes the most sense here.

30.   Carolina Panthers – Will Pick: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana.  Should Pick: OL Vadal Alexander. The Panthers rolled the dice and ended up losing in the end by going with suspect OTs last year.  With Spriggs sitting there in the “Will Take” scenario it is a no brainer.  However, in the “Should Take” scenario the next couple of OTs up are not worth it.  However, Alexander played Tackle in college and may be a nice fit at RT for the Panthers.  Worst case scenario, they get better in the interior of the line which still helps them out a lot.

31.   Denver Broncos –Will Pick: OG Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Should Pick: TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas.  Should Take:  The Broncos are going to need to rebuild their offensive line a bit and Whitehair is a really nice fit.  Assuming they do in fact pay for Osweiler, they need to protect him as well as help him out a bit here.  Since Whitehair is not there in the “Should Take” scenario, Henry is the best all-around TE and compares favorably to last year’s top player Maxx Williams, if not a little bit better.  Either move will help them out.

32.   The Patriots lost their 1^st round pick due to deflategate.

So there you have it.  Free Agency in the next few weeks will change some of this so we will revisit as soon as things calm down a little.  On a final note, it is going to be interesting to see who takes a chance on Jaylon Smith.  He is the type of player that did not rely solely on physical gifts so the instincts should still be there.  He might end up being a very good player even with the nerve damage.