Hello Draft Compass Fans! Time for the annual Should Pick and Will Pick Mock Draft of 2023.
Per usually, I will assert my not so humble opinions on what each team should do and what they will do (many times against my recommendation should they call me on draft day). No trades for this mock draft but I will be stunned if there are not multiple trades in the top 5 – 10 picks. Hot off the presses is the Aaron Rodgers trade, which is why this is not in video form.
For a quick skim here are the picks and the detailed breakdown of choices will be below that:
1. Panthers – The Panthers traded up with purpose. While there is always the “they know who they want” thought, I think they knew that they liked a few QBs in this instance and they did a deep dive to ensure that they got the best one.
Should Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State – Really, this feels more like Stroud is a better overall fit and probably a bit less of a risk. With that being said, Stroud and Bryce Young are both going to be really great QBs so it is truly a flip of a coin here. I personally like the higher floor of Stroud.
Will Pick: Same – Stroud makes a ton of sense here and the Panthers traded up for a reason.
2.Texans – For a while, I did not buy that the Texans were interested in a QB. I am still not totally positive either but they certainly would not stay in this spot if they are actually sticking with Davis Mills. I am putting it at 80% moving on from him but I am not sure they should.
Should Pick: Bryce Young QB, Alabama – Bryce Young has literally done everything he can to prove he is a top QB and the one thing he cannot control is his height which is the knock on him. I know height matters but all the other tools to overcome that matter as well. The Texans are not going to pass up the potential for this exciting of a player.
Will Pick: Same – Though I am very tempted to go defense here and roll with Davis Mills.
3. Cardinals – The Cardinals are a mess right now and it is a textbook example of why it is dangerous to build a team around one player who fits one scheme. Cardinals should look to take a QB in the second or third round to compete for the temporary starting spot. In the first round though, build up the missing parts on the team.
Should Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois - A toss up between the CB and the Edge but in this case, the Cardinals should go CB as it is the greater need looking down their roster. Witherspoon is feisty and a playmaker that will lead the defense. I know it is tough to consider a CB for 3rd overall but long-term this will look like a solid pick.
Will Pick: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama – It would be tough to argue this pick as Anderson looks to be a consistently good pass-rusher that could be great. It is just a question of if he can become the highest end pass-rusher in this class as the ceiling of a few others may be higher.
4. Colts – The Colts have made it clear that they are continuing to pursue their QB and this time, they will turn to the draft instead of veteran. It is hard to argue against doing so since the veterans have not really worked out for them. Signing Minshew was very smart as he can hold down the fort. The real question: will any of the remaining QBs prove worthy?
Should Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky - I was really back and forth here on this pick but kept coming to the conclusion that the Colts have painted themselves in a corner and need a QB. Levis is going to be quite the gamble. A part of me wanted to just go Hendon Hooker but he could be had later so they would trade down if they went that route.
Will Pick: Same – The rumors of the Colts being interested in Levis as far back as January only reinforces this thought. Levis' stock is just climbing so much and I feel like teams are going to see Josh Allen when he is really more like Jake Locker, though I think he will be serviceable at least.
5. Seahawks – I really want the Seahawks to go all in on QB here but it just does not make any sense at this point with who is available. Do not be surprised if they trade down with their second 1st round pick or just take a QB with that pick. At this point, defense looks to be the best spot to address.
Should Pick: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama – The Seahawks have long gambled on a lot of potential prospects at Edge for years. It is time to go the safer route. You know what you have in Anderson and he will give it his all.
Will Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia – With Anderson gone and potentially good pass-rushers (or a QB) available later, Carter is clearly the best talent available. It’s tough to really think of a DT as worthy of this high of a pick but we have never seen a guy quite like Carter. If he can buckle down and refine his skills beyond being just a physical freak, he could be generational.
6. Lions – It is ironic that the Seahawks and Lions have one pick after the other as both picks were from snookering other clubs with their aging QBs. A lesson that has harmed any team trying to trade their veteran QB this offseason and in the future. However, the Lions are okay at QB and can build upon other parts of their team in a draft strong on defense at the top.
Should Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia – The Lions focused on pass-rush last year and can address CB later but cannot miss out on the potential of a massive cog for the middle of the defense here.
Will Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois – With Carter gone at this point and less of a need for a pass-rusher, the Lions can focus on getting a true dominant CB. It is hard to argue against this pick other than a lack of ideal size.
7. Raiders – I said it last year and I will say it again, Josh McDaniel is a terrible and cocky coach. The stories of him alienating his players are astounding and that press conference where Carr got emotional tells it all. Josh McDaniel made a huge mistake with the Broncos on a QB and my suspicion is that it will happen again.
Should Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern - I do not think the QB is here and I am a bigger fan of Skoronski than Johnson, though it really is a toss up. I just feel that Skoronski is the safer pick, similar to when Tristan Wirfs came out.
Will Pick: Anthony Richardson QB, Florida – If you were going to bake a pie and the Raiders are the pie crust and Josh McDaniel is the filling, you are still getting the same old thing. Raider’s Management will see the tools and potential and McDaniel will think he can mold any QB (see how well he molded Tim Tebow) into a winner. My issue with Richardson is not how raw he is. My issue is that he has come off as cocky and as if he thinks he does not need a ton of work. I do not see this ending well.
8. Falcons – There are some that believe that the Falcons are in the market for a QB. I am not buying that one bit. Ridder showed enough potential to build the team around him. So the Falcons do just that.
Should Pick: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech - There is mild risk involved with Tyree Wilson but if all goes well, he is going to be a very good power pass-rusher. The Falcons need to take the pressure off of a young QB so they build their defense up first.
Will Pick: Same – The Falcons will be happy to take Wilson here.
9. Bears – The Bears did a great job of adding a good player in the process of moving down along with getting some extra capital. Now the work begins with getting players that can help them to take it to the next level.
Should Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – Cornerback is likely not the top of their list but Gonzalez can be as good as he wants to be. The knock on him is that he lacks an edge but that may be a little off and let’s face it, when you have the potential to earn a ton of money by giving yourself an edge, you tend to do it. I think this would be a very smart pick for them.
Will Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern – The Bears could use another Offensive Lineman and Skoronski is consistent and you know what you have with him. Certainly not the most exciting pick but a smart one here.
10. Eagles – The Eagles are in full on bonus round here so they can shop for the best player available.
Should Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State – Not their greatest need here but adding some juice and a chippy player at CB could really solidify the defense. The Eagles have very solid CBs to start this year if Porter is not quite ready. If he is, boom, you have a starting CB for the next decade or so.
Will Pick: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa - Van Ness needs to be eased in and can continue to be a designated pass rusher for a season or two. It is a luxury pick for the Eagles and they can look down the road with a guy that is more talent than true production at this point.
11. Titans – Titans can really go a lot of different directions. We will see if they strike a deal for a QB or go with what they have. I am thinking the latter. That means, improve your team for the current QB and future QB. Regardless of which QB they roll with this year, they will need protection.
Should Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State - The recent release of Taylor Lewan creates a big hole that Johnson will fill. Easy pick here based on needs.
Will Pick: Same – The Titans have telegraphed their needs a bit here.
12. Texans – The Texans are back on the board and have a lot of very good players to choose from here to build their team.
Should Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State – A month ago I was thinking I was higher on JSN than many others but things have sorted themselves out and he is the top WR now. Metchie possibly coming back allows for some decent depth but adding JSN to go along with a young QB is going to make life much easier for him.
Will Pick: Same – This will allow for Ryans and the Texans to focus later efforts on defense where there is more depth in the draft.
13. Packers – Gutekunst is a bit mysterious with his picks sometimes. The Packers seemed to care about moving up two slots (or maybe it is strictly value and they end up trading down). Unfortunately, a possible target in JSN was just taken so he is out. While he said that clearly Safety and Tight End are needs for the Packers, I am not so sure he follows through with that, especially with the underwhelming athletic testing of the Safeties in this draft.
Should Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame – With JSN gone, I just go back to this being the guy I want so I take him here. But likely, the Packers trade down from this spot and grab him later. This is a do not overthink it moment where the Packers need to address the greatest position of need. I was willing to roll with Bobby Tonyan in the past but he clearly never reached his potential (and signed elsewhere). Kincade is fun to watch and has some insane physical tools but Mayer is the more well-rounded of the two. Throw out his physical testing and just watch the tape: he will be good in this league.
Will Pick: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia – Nolan Smith is off the charts athletic and Gutekunst is going to be enamored with his skills. It is hard to argue with this pick other than Smith is a little small. But he will be playing OLB and the guy has serious cover skills.
14. Patriots – The Patriots are always a wild ride when it comes to drafting. They used to be able to hit on signing veterans or trading for underappreciated ones. Those days are gone so they need to start changing things up.
Should Pick: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa – The Patriots need to roll the dice on potential here and Van Ness is a worthwhile gamble. Some days I think JJ Watt and somedays I think he has no technique and may never find it. Still, the ceiling on him is far too high to ignore.
Will Pick: Myles Murphy, Edge Rusher Clemson – The Patriots were looking at Nolan Smith who was just taken one pick ahead of them. But Belichick will still be happy with an edge rusher who is oozing with potential. Murphy certainly has risk involved and you wonder why he did not progress but the same was said of Rashan Gary.
15. Jets – The Rodgers trade does not effect anything for the Jets who are picking just two slots lower now. The Jets have telegraphed through free agency that they are looking to draft a tackle here.
Should Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee – What a difference a month can make for certain players! Last month when I first started looking at mock drafts, it looked like Wright was a solid 2-3. Now he goes top 15. While I do think that talent wise this is a little high, it is what the Jets need to do. It is clear that there is reason for Wright to jump up, he has all the tools and pieces. Questions are on consistency against top competition but those things happen and he is experienced enough to know what you have with him. The Jets need somebody like that right now.
Will Pick: Same – The Jets have focused on weapons for their QB through Free Agency, now they will focus on protecting him.
16. Commanders – I guess the question is, do you really believe in Sam Howell? I sure do not. If the Commanders truly do then they can address some other areas of need in the back 7 of the defense.
Should Pick: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee – Maybe this is early for him, maybe his college system was built for him, maybe he is a little overaged, and he is injured. But putting on the tape shows a refined QB that takes control of the field and makes good decisions. The overaged thing is also a little odd to me. For example, Kurt Warner was 28 years old when he took over for the Rams. The Rams offered up multiple 1sts and other compensation for and older Matthew Stafford. If you think he is your man, take him.
Will Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State – The Commanders have a bunch of average at best players at CB right now so a CB makes a lot of sense. Porter plays with an edge so he will be good for this team as well. Not a bad pick but maybe not the right pick for them.
17. Steelers – The Steelers have a few holes on defense to fill so the draft has set itself up to help them in both scenarios. It is just a matter of which direction to go.
Should Pick: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State – Maybe not the guy most Steelers fans want right now but they need a MLB bad. Henley certainly is a bit of a gamble here but his upside is immense. Bush did not work out so they try their hand at it again. This time, they get a guy who is more of a coverage type than a thumper.
Will Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – Gonzalez should not fall this far but the draft just happened to go in a different direction and the Steelers reap the benefits. He can be as good as he wants to be but needs to focus on the game itself. I think he can do it and this is a steal (no pun there)
18. Lions – The Lions still have a few holes on defense and one on offense that they could address here. It is a question of if there is a TE that they want more than addressing the defense.
Should Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland – Having addressed DT with their first pick the Lions can now bring attention to CB and Banks appears to be an excellent fit for what they will want in a CB. TE is a really tempting pick here but the draft is deep enough at that position that they can find the right guy later.
Will Pick: Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson – Having taken a CB with their first pick they will swing back around and grab a solid DT here. Bresee’s game has been centered around playing smart and assignment sure and the pressure will not be on him to be a big play guy right away. That works to the favor of both the player and the team.
19. Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have a few holes they need to fill with this pick. But the smart move is to let the QBs currently on the roster duke it out and give help to whichever one wins the job.
Should Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas – Robinson is such a wild card as he could go before this or could fall victim to the lower value of RBs. No matter what though, he is not getting past the Buccaneers who really need a RB bad. Robinson has all of the tools that Fournette had but he is niftier and has a better attitude.
Will Pick: Same – No way that Robinson falls any further than this.
20. Seahawks – The Seahawks have really struggled to find good players at a few different positions in the last decade or so. They addressed the DL in both scenarios already so it is time to look on the other side.
Should Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia – Jones is not quite the prospect that Skoronski or Johnson are and does not have the experience of Wright so he fell a bit here. He is not a top tier player but he could be a very good one for a number of years. The Seahawks have needed that at tackle for quite some time.
Will Pick: Same – The Seahawks need to invest in the OL and Jones is the more versatile of the 2nd tier OTs.
21. Chargers – The Chargers are more in the mode of building towards the future at this point in time so they are in a good spot to assess the roster and take somebody that they can be patient with.
Should Pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU – The Chargers seem to have a “type” when it comes to WR and Johnston falls into that category. He is not a complete player as he still needs to learn the nuances of the position. There are two players currently on the roster that he can learn from for the next season or two. Nice fit and worthy gamble here.
Will Pick: Same – This is one of those picks that seem destined to happen but who really ever knows?
22. Ravens – Eric DeCosta has struggled with his 1st round picks since taking over as the GM so he needs to right the ship here. While there are a few needs, the Ravens can also go for best player available.
Should Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College – While the signing of OBJ strengthens the WR room to a degree, it is time that we admit that he really is a one dimensional player. Flowers needs to refine himself a little bit as well as add a little more weight if possible. If he really dedicates himself, he can be a very good WR.
Will Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh – I want to like Kancey but there is this little voice in my head that just keeps reminding me that just because he is short and from Pitt does not mean he is Aaron Donald. He is high effort but having the shortest arms of any top defensive tackle since Chris Zorich might be telling. Zorich was a fine player but he was never a dominant player and I feel like Kancey’s ceiling could be Chris Zorich.
23. Vikings – The Vikings likely overachieved last year so this spot is not helping them fully address their needs. Still, there are some good players to be had here so they should make out just fine.
Should Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland – Banks has some of the best tools of any CB in this draft and tape to back up his abilities. The Vikings have missed on a lot of CBs in the first few rounds of the draft so they are bound to hit on the right one eventually, right? I believe that Banks is going to be the right one.
Will Pick: Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson – Essentially the two scenarios just swap between the Lions and the Vikings. Both could use a CB and a DT to strengthen their defenses. Banks is not available and it would be a reach for the next tier of CBs so the Vikings make a smart move here and strengthen the middle of their D-Line.
24. Jaguars – The Jaguars are one of the most interesting examples of just how much a toxic coach can harm a team. Of course it takes the right coach to fix that team. Clearly the Jaguars have a lot of talent and a bright future so it is just a matter of bringing in another player that can help build the young team and bring them to the next level.
Should Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah – Kincade’s film is so much fun to watch as he makes it look real easy sometimes. His injury is of minor concern and he puts forth effort to block, he is just not very good at it yet. Additionally, he probably needs to add a little weight to even out. On the Jaguars, he should be an instant weapon and Pederson will be creative in how he uses him.
Will Pick: Same – The Jaguars have a need at TE and Kincade is the best receiving TE in the class.
25. Giants – Despite doing well last year, the Giants feel like they still have a long way to go on both sides of the ball. Addressing the best player available on either side would be prudent here.
Should Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC – Addison is more of a sneaky receiver than dominant one as he knows the position and works the field well. The Giants need to bring in some more playmakers at WR to help Daniel Jones as Jones is more of a system QB than game changing quarterback. Addison is likely to be a complimentary receiver long-term but he could be a really good one.
Will Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama – The Giants need defensive back help in general. Branch is a projection to safety as he was more of a slot coverage player in college. However, his tackle rate is incredibly impressive so moving him all around the field would be prudent. He could really become an interesting chess piece similar to LeRoy Butler or Minkah Fitzpatrick.
26. Cowboys – The Cowboys are in a bit of a transition on offense but most of the pieces are there. I would love it if they were aggressive on draft day and found a compliment to Tony Pollard. But Robinson is gone and it is too early for Charbonnet. So they will need to turn their attention elsewhere.
Should Pick: Nolan Smith, Edge/LB, Georgia – Smith would be a LB on the Cowboys that could move up to standing edge during passing downs. In watching tape on him, I felt that his coverage ability was being a little undersold so I think he projects well to OLB. Imagine all the attention going to Micah Parsons and then Smith is the sneaky one on the other side that gets the sack.
Will Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame – While the thought of Nolan Smith is quite tempting, he is off the board and the Cowboys need a TE after losing Schultz. Mayer is better than Schultz and would be a strong starter for years so this is an easy pick for the Cowboys.
27. Bills – The Bills biggest need at this point is in the defensive backfield but they should not reach for anybody. Their board should be stacked with a lot of “best player available”.
Should Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama – Branch is the only safety worth a first round pick it would seem. With him being available and the Bills having a need there, this pick is a perfect match.
Will Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College – Stefan Diggs cannot play forever and the Bills could use a WR in the wings who can be a specialized player at first. A great situation for Flowers being able to learn the nuances of being a WR from Diggs for a few years and the Bills to have somebody for the future.
28. Bengals – I am not sure why the Bengals soured on Jonah Williams so quickly. Perhaps they thought he would be okay switching to the right side after they signed Orlando Brown Jr? In any case, they created an unnecessary need in the process. Do they address it here or wait?
Should Pick: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State – Jones is the prototypical grinding right tackle. Get him into a little better shape after a full season in the NFL by having him drop a few pounds and he can be an emergency LT as well. This solves the short-term and long-term problems for them. It also allows them to official move on from Jonah Williams (Jets or Titans need a Tackle?)
Will Pick: Same – This is an excellent fit for the Bengals.
29. Saints – The Saints were smart to bring Carr in as their QB. They have a strong enough team for him to be successful. Building up both the offensive and defensive lines would be prudent.
Should Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh – Maybe I just think this is a perfect situation for Kancey or maybe I just want him to be successful. But I think Dennis Allen could be creative with how he uses Kancey and make him an x-factor type defender.
Will Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida – The Saints have not been able to get their interior quite right. Torrence can be a road grading brute to help to solve this issue. Additionally, getting the top guard at 29 is a win for them.
30. Eagles – The Eagles swing back around and it still feels like they are in the bonus round here. Defense is likely still the name of the game here though offense is not out of the question.
Should Pick: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson – Having addressed CB with their first pick the Eagles take a swing at a guy that can rotate in to give Graham some relief and develop his first year. There is a lot to like about Murphy physically and no need to put too much pressure on him as he learns the finer points.
Will Pick: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern – Adebawore can play both inside and outside and be a nice compliment to Jordan Davis or make a push to the outside if need be. Taking two DL in the first round might seem excessive but it could also set the position for a long time. Both players may seem like gambles but the physical tools are well worth it for a team with few immediate needs.
31. Chiefs – The Chiefs always seem to just be in a reloading mode as Andy Reid is clearly a top-notch coach. With that said, they let a pass-rusher go so that will jump that up the list of needs if a good one is still available here.
Should Pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State – Anudike-Uzomah is a fairly polish pass-rusher who can step right in. Like all rookies, there will be some bumps along the way but he should contribute immediately and be a long-term asset.
Will Pick: Same – This is a nice pick for the Chiefs who have no need to reach and can just grab a top player at any position of need.
That is a wrap!
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