First Round Review - Quality Rank and Risk Rank

Hello Draft Compass Fans. Here is my quick review of the first round. As in the past, I like to do Quality Rankings and Risk Rankings since grading is a bit futile. This year was tough. I liked almost every player with a few exceptions. Quality Ranking means how well the team did with the fit of the player, the players skill level, and where they were picked to a small degree. Risk Rank refers to how risky of a player I think they are.

	Team	Name	Comments	Quality Rank (1 highest - 31 lowest)	Risk Rank (1 highest - 31 lowest risk)
1	Panthers	QB Bryce Young	Bryce Young has done literally everything ever asked of him to prove that he is a top QB and he has been successful at it. But his size has got to frighten Panther fans a little bit in the sense that it is a bigger game so he will still need to make adjustments and his body may not hold up so that is the high risk factor. But if he can avoid that and continue to evolve his game as he has, you have a potential hall of famer.	4	11
2	Texans	QB CJ Stroud	I think Stroud is likely the best QB to come out of this draft. He just looked so silky smooth throwing at the combine and save his best game for last. I think that is a view of the future. But with few exceptions (P. Manning, Luck, Lawrence) QBs are always a risky pick so it is tough to move him any higher than this.	5	16
3	Texans	EDGE Will Anderson Jr	Anderson is a hard worker with a lot of talent. He gives it his all so he leads with the both the highest quality and lowest risk pick in the draft.	1	31
4	Colts	QB Anthony Richardson	I will make no secret that I think this is the worst pick in the first round. Richardson has tools to work with so that bumps up his quality but he is the riskiest. He acted like he does not need work in the pre-draft process.	12	1
5	Seahawks	CB Devon Witherspoon	Witherspoon and Anderson seem to be the best bets in this draft from both a talent and low risk standpoint. Witherspoon is probably not going to be Sauce Gardner	2	30
6	Cardinals	OT Paris Johnson Jr.	This was probably a little early for him but the talent is there. He is not as refined as the two proceeding OTs but he has a much higher ceiling. Likely he will be just fine in the NFL but there is still a lot of risk for the 6th overall pick.	14	12
7	Raiders	EDGE Tyree Wilson	I was wrong, the Raiders did not bumble this pick for a change. Wilson is not Will Anderson but he would be the top pass-rusher in other years. His game is a bit more power than finesse (he has that too of course) and he has shown he can play consistently at a high level. Low risk factor and a high quality player here.	8	26
8	Falcons	RB Bijan Robinson	There are so few holes in Robinson's game as he runs with a balance of speed, agility, and power. He does not have the attitude problems linked with some of the top RBs in years past. He also is incredibly versatile too. High end talent and the right attitude equals low risk.	3	29
9	Eagles	DT Jalen Carter	Carter's talent is legit. But I keep thinking about him not being prepared for his pro day. That is what makes me think he is risky. Work ethic could lead to eating his way out of the league or it could be that he ends up being a high end player that needs a lot of rest throughout the game.	6	2
10	Bears	OT Darnell Wright	Wright looks to be a very good football player who will likely work out as a solid but not high end starter. So relatively low risk rate but also not high quality per se.	20	18
11	Titans	OT Peter Skoronski	There is talk that Skoronski may not be a tackle in the NFL so we will see about that but you know he is going to be good if he fits more as a guard. Either way, he is so darn consistent and such a hard worker that he has quality with little risk.	11	28
12	Lions	RB Jahmyr Gibbs	I like the player a lot but the fit is a bit odd. He has high end talent so while this is a reach, it is not a bad pick. Risk factor is high medium since he might be more of a role player and this is too high for that.	23	13
13	Packers	EDGE Lukas Van Ness	Lukas Van Ness certainly has a lot of the tools to be an incredible football player. But he is still blossoming. His game is center on power and it is much harder to overpower OTs in the NFL so his risk factor is high. He will need to learn a lot of the nuances of the game first.	9	7
14	Steelers	OT Broderick Jones	Jones was always the riskiest of the OTs in the first round. I think he is a fine player and will probably be good but there is some Jason Smith to him. So high risk with decent potential reward.	21	6
15	Jets	EDGE Will McDonald IV	McDonald played some lower level competition and he is really undersized. I like the player but this is about a round too early if you ask me. It really felt like the Jets panicked here and took the guy they had slated for round 2. With that said, there is a lot of talent here so he could boom which leads to a high risk factor.	29	5
16	Commanders	CB Emmanuel Forbes	Forbes was certainly a surprise pick this high. I am not so sure he has the talent to match here either. His take away stats are impressive but he is just too light to deal with physical WRs at this point. If a little extra weight does not slow him down too much then the Commanders have something. But he poses a major risk.	31	3
17	Patriots	CB Christian Gonzalez	I was a big fan of Gonzalez for sure. But there are parts of his demeanor that feel very Jeff Okudah to me and that is where some of the risk factor comes in. However, his tools are great and he never should have fallen this far.	16	19
18	Lions	MLB Jack Campbell	A situation where the player himself is not a bad player but he is a bit of an odd fit in today's NFL (Reggie Ragland is a similar example but Campbell is better) and this is too early for him. His risk factor is mostly tied with him not really ever turning into a high end player.	30	10
19	Buccaneers	DT Calijah Kancey	I am still not sure if Kancey is going to be great in the NFL. I like him and his effort and all but I am just not sure that he is a high end talent. That said, you know what you have in him so he is medium low risk.	24	21
20	Seahawks	WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba	JSN has proven that he can be a great player in college. However, the nagging hamstring is one of those things  to give you a little pause. He is also not an elite athlete but a good athlete. That said, I would be stunned if he does not pan out. He has just been too consistently good.	7	27
21	Chargers	WR Quentin Johnston	Johnston has the tools but there are a few clunky parts to his game in respect to change of direction. There have been a lot of receivers like him in the past that have done well (the two on the Chargers) and some that could never put it together (Laquon Treadwell) so the risk factor is certainly there.	18	15
22	Ravens	WR Zay Flowers	Flowers is quicker than he is fast which is not a total negative for a WR, it is just who he is. He has shown that he is an elite player thus far aside from his height. He has the tools to be good but anytime you are a shorter player, it means there is a bit more to overcome. If he fails, it is not going to be due to lack of effort and dedication. I consider him to be the better version of Hollywood Brown.	13	24
23	Vikings	WR Jordan Addison	Addison has a lot of the things you want in an NFL receiver. He is a little undersized and not a burner (though fast enough). The good news for him is that he does not need to be the guy as he will complement Jefferson. That boards well for him. Still, I have been tricked before with guys like Sterling Shepard and Josh Doctson that had a similar style of play.	17	23
24	Giants	CB Deonte Banks	Banks is a great athlete who is feisty with a short memory. Those are most of the traits you need to be successful as a CB. With that being said, his risk factor is linked with awareness of the ball in the air and where he is on the field. Those are things that can be partially taught/practiced and refined. So some risk factor but he is teetering as middle of the road in that respect.	19	14
25	Bills	TE Dalton Kincaid	Kincaid has some spectacular tools to work with and his tape is beautiful. But he is still working on the nuances of TE blocking skills and caliber of competition has to be factored in. That leads to some slight risk but I tend to think he is going to be a tick down from a player like Kelce but anybody would take that at 25.	15	20
26	Cowboys	DT Mazi Smith	I like Mazi Smith as a role player in a 3-4 defense. But his role is one-dimensional. There is a lot of natural talent to work with here so there is potential to take the next step. But he did not do so in college and that leads to a higher risk factor. I cannot figure out what the Cowboys thought process was with this pick at all.	28	9
27	Jaguars	OT Anton Harrison	I like Harrison but he probably is more of a second round talent. The bottom of the first is not a bad spot for him and I like him better than any of the top OTs from last year. Still I think his ceiling is average NFL starter. So lower quality but less risk.	27	22
28	Bengals	EDGE Myles Murphy	I was never particularly high on Murphy. He has all the tools but has not taken that next step. That spells a high risk factor to me. If he can put it together this is a great pick but history is not on his side so I think this is a relatively low quality pick.	26	4
29	Saints	DT Bryan Bresee	Bresee is an interesting one here. His ceiling is low but his floor is high. He is likely to never be a high-end starter but he could be a guy that does all the small things that the Saints will appreciate. So lower quality but relatively safe.	25	25
30	Eagles	EDGE Nolan Smith	Nolan Smith is an incredibly athlete who looked the part in college. The stats are not as good as the potential player since he played on such a great defense. But he is very undersized. I am not so sure that the Eagles was the right team for him to go to so there is high potential to bust. With that said, if he does, my bet is that he does well for the next team that will know how to best use him.	10	8
31	Chiefs	EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah	For where they got him I think Felix Anudike-Uzomah is a fine player. I projected him to the Chiefs. He still poses a slight risk factor in that he is not a complete player just yet. Coaching can fix his flaws though.	22	17

 

Let's get ready for day 2!

Packer Picks Scenarios and some of my favorite players

Welcome Draft Compass Fans. Are we ready for some Packer Picks? I have run something like 25 or so different mock drafts sometimes with trades and sometimes without. I used the Pro Football Focus Engine. 

Here are my top three ones for the no trade scenario and trade scenario. A lot is contingent in each one on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and where he goes. In all of the scenarios I tried to set the parameters of a medium balance among each of the sliders so it should be fair...well, I could not resist, I did do one with "Randomness" cranked up just to see what would happen as well. 

No Trades

This first one represents the best all around of the top of my no trade scenarios. I am left with being disappointed with the TE selection though. I am still questioning if LaPorta or Tucker Kraft is who I want after Darnell Washington is gone in the 2nd. Kraft will probably be the better long term player but LaPorta is more NFL ready. Higgins in the 7th is a projection to TE.

Again Smith-Njigba is the key here but getting 3 defensive backs is a nice bonus. Doubling down on the Brown and Johnson Jr could solidify the Safety position. Deuce Vaughn would be such a cool player to have on the Packers. He is role player but he plays like somebody six inches taller and 25 pounds heavier with great hands. I think the Darren Sproles comparison is off but the uniqueness of both is present. Iosivas in the 7th is a great developmental prospect, I doubt that happens though.

Smith-Njigba was gone in this scenario but Nolan Smith is a nice player to get in the first, just a gamble. Rashee Rice is the highlight here as he can be the savvy slot in the Packers offense. I think of him as very similar to James Jones. Josh Whyle is a player I am a huge fan of but I just did not have the opportunity to get him in a lot of my simulations. 

Trades

This top one provides the most complete of the trade scenario drafts and only features a single trade up to get Darnell Washington and swap of fifth and sixth round picks. Getting Mazi Smith with 45 is a great haul. Riley Moss I am projecting to a role that is similar to L'Darius Sneed as a hybrid CB and S or perhaps strictly S. 

 

This one features JSN as not available at 13 so a swap with the Buccaneers allows us to land Michael Mayer and some extra picks. The beauty with this one is that still grab a bunch of players I really like in Tippmann (as a guard or center), Rice, I am a huge fan of Sydney Brown and Anthony Johnson Jr., Trice is the bonus between them. Doubling down with two TEs that are good blockers with good hands allows for more versatility, though less speed. 

Clearly, getting JSN would be top priority for me. This one also features a trade up for Darnell Washington but then having Jammer Gibbs still available at 45 is just too much for me to pass up. He is a top playmaker and could create for some creative formations in addition to a long-term option. I was heavy on Edge here because it is a gamble on talent with the three later ones. Brooks is really a DL but he is one of my favorite players for the mid rounds. Speaking of favorite players, Juice Scruggs is such a great one to watch because he just gets the job done even if it is sometimes ugly.

Runner Up

Making a trade up to grab both JSN and Michael Mayer would make this draft. I am projecting Ringo to Safety here then swinging back and grabbing Anthony Johnson Jr. The problem is that this one leaves me hanging with a few positions I would have liked to address, particularly a second TE.

Randomness cranked up

Not much more to say than this one creates a ridiculous scenario. No way that something like this would happen but it tells you the story of what happens with AI dreams. Clearly cranking the random just means that every GM loses their sense of mind.

Overall Assessment

I have some clear favorites here across virtually all of my simulations. JSN, Michael Mayer, or Darnell Washington are all catalysts for me. If the Packers can get JSN and one of those TEs or One of those TEs and Rashee Rice, I would consider that to be a very successful draft on that alone. 

Anthony Smith Jr. is one I would absolutely love the Packers to have and they likely will double down on Safety and I like Sydney Brown in that mix too. Karl Brooks is one of my favorites that I would love to see on the Packers. He is a not quite as stout Mike Daniels in my book. 

Trying to find a second TE was tough for me. Other priorities jumped ahead but the Packers probably need to draft two. I would even be in for combination scenario of Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington but that could be a bit of overkill.

There are a limited number of QBs that fall into the mid to late rounds that I like. Essentially, Clayton Tune or Stetson Bennett. Keeping in mind, I have total faith in Jordan Love but we need our Matt Flynn type to be a backup. Bennett is the most interesting to me because he has clear flaws but he has still managed to be successful. 

Then the later rounds, I am consistent with wanting Jake Moody as the Packers probably need to draft a kicker. I am not positive that Robert Beal will be there but if he is I think he is better than advertised. Then of course, RYAN GREENHAGEN! Greenhagen made 31 tackles in one game. Watch that game, it was against Nebraska and he was all over the field. Is he a top athlete, nope. But he could be an interesting prospect to fill in at MLB in a pinch and be a demon special teamer. 

Ones that were not a common theme but I am a huge fan of:

- Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State - This guys is getting so underrated by the media. Yeah he is a little short but he is good in coverage and sticks his nose in there. He reminds me a little bit of Tyrann Mathieu.  

- Joe Tippmann, C/G, Wisconsin - Paul Alexander was working with him and made mention that he was asking a lot of questions and picking up on things quickly. That is good enough for me to want him as a challenger to the interior of the Packers offensive line.

- Juice Scruggs, C, Penn State - This guy gets my Scott Wells/AQ Shipley award. He is not going to be pretty but he will be very good in the NFL.

- Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue - A perfect sneaky slot receiver with quickness and good hands. I have seen a comparison to Jared Abbrederis but I think he is more like Ricky Proehl. He is going to find a way to be successful in the NFL.

- Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State - He got a little lost in the mix of the simulations but I feel as if he could be a very nice pick in the 5th and 6th rounds

- Andre Jones, Edge, Louisiana - He was a guy I looked into much later in the process so he kept slipping my mind in the simulations. With that said, I think he could be a late round steal and he has time to develop on the Packers

We are just one day away from the draft. I cannot wait!

Hello Draft Compass Fans! Time for the annual Should Pick and Will Pick Mock Draft of 2023.

Per usually, I will assert my not so humble opinions on what each team should do and what they will do (many times against my recommendation should they call me on draft day). No trades for this mock draft but I will be stunned if there are not multiple trades in the top 5 – 10 picks. Hot off the presses is the Aaron Rodgers trade, which is why this is not in video form. 

For a quick skim here are the picks and the detailed breakdown of choices will be below that:

 

 

1. Panthers – The Panthers traded up with purpose. While there is always the “they know who they want” thought, I think they knew that they liked a few QBs in this instance and they did a deep dive to ensure that they got the best one. 

 

Should Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State – Really, this feels more like Stroud is a better overall fit and probably a bit less of a risk. With that being said, Stroud and Bryce Young are both going to be really great QBs so it is truly a flip of a coin here. I personally like the higher floor of Stroud.

 

Will Pick: Same – Stroud makes a ton of sense here and the Panthers traded up for a reason.

 

 

2.Texans – For a while, I did not buy that the Texans were interested in a QB. I am still not totally positive either but they certainly would not stay in this spot if they are actually sticking with Davis Mills. I am putting it at 80% moving on from him but I am not sure they should.

 

Should Pick: Bryce Young QB, Alabama – Bryce Young has literally done everything he can to prove he is a top QB and the one thing he cannot control is his height which is the knock on him. I know height matters but all the other tools to overcome that matter as well. The Texans are not going to pass up the potential for this exciting of a player.

 

Will Pick: Same – Though I am very tempted to go defense here and roll with Davis Mills.

 

 

3. Cardinals – The Cardinals are a mess right now and it is a textbook example of why it is dangerous to build a team around one player who fits one scheme. Cardinals should look to take a QB in the second or third round to compete for the temporary starting spot. In the first round though, build up the missing parts on the team. 

 

Should Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois - A toss up between the CB and the Edge but in this case, the Cardinals should go CB as it is the greater need looking down their roster. Witherspoon is feisty and a playmaker that will lead the defense. I know it is tough to consider a CB for 3^rd overall but long-term this will look like a solid pick.

 

 

Will Pick: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama – It would be tough to argue this pick as Anderson looks to be a consistently good pass-rusher that could be great. It is just a question of if he can become the highest end pass-rusher in this class as the ceiling of a few others may be higher.

 

 

4. Colts – The Colts have made it clear that they are continuing to pursue their QB and this time, they will turn to the draft instead of veteran. It is hard to argue against doing so since the veterans have not really worked out for them. Signing Minshew was very smart as he can hold down the fort. The real question: will any of the remaining QBs prove worthy?

 

Should Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky - I was really back and forth here on this pick but kept coming to the conclusion that the Colts have painted themselves in a corner and need a QB. Levis is going to be quite the gamble. A part of me wanted to just go Hendon Hooker but he could be had later so they would trade down if they went that route. 

 

Will Pick: Same – The rumors of the Colts being interested in Levis as far back as January only reinforces this thought. Levis' stock is just climbing so much and I feel like teams are going to see Josh Allen when he is really more like Jake Locker, though I think he will be serviceable at least.

 

 

5. Seahawks – I really want the Seahawks to go all in on QB here but it just does not make any sense at this point with who is available. Do not be surprised if they trade down with their second 1^st round pick or just take a QB with that pick. At this point, defense looks to be the best spot to address.

 

Should Pick: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama – The Seahawks have long gambled on a lot of potential prospects at Edge for years. It is time to go the safer route. You know what you have in Anderson and he will give it his all.

 

Will Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia – With Anderson gone and potentially good pass-rushers (or a QB) available later, Carter is clearly the best talent available. It’s tough to really think of a DT as worthy of this high of a pick but we have never seen a guy quite like Carter. If he can buckle down and refine his skills beyond being just a physical freak, he could be generational.

 

 

6. Lions  – It is ironic that the Seahawks and Lions have one pick after the other as both picks were from snookering other clubs with their aging QBs. A lesson that has harmed any team trying to trade their veteran QB this offseason and in the future. However, the Lions are okay at QB and can build upon other parts of their team in a draft strong on defense at the top. 

 

Should Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia – The Lions focused on pass-rush last year and can address CB later but cannot miss out on the potential of a massive cog for the middle of the defense here. 

 

Will Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois – With Carter gone at this point and less of a need for a pass-rusher, the Lions can focus on getting a true dominant CB. It is hard to argue against this pick other than a lack of ideal size.

 

 

7. Raiders – I said it last year and I will say it again, Josh McDaniel is a terrible and cocky coach. The stories of him alienating his players are astounding and that press conference where Carr got emotional tells it all. Josh McDaniel made a huge mistake with the Broncos on a QB and my suspicion is that it will happen again. 

 

Should Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern - I do not think the QB is here and I am a bigger fan of Skoronski than Johnson, though it really is a toss up. I just feel that Skoronski is the safer pick, similar to when Tristan Wirfs came out.

 

Will Pick: Anthony Richardson QB, Florida – If you were going to bake a pie and the Raiders are the pie crust and Josh McDaniel is the filling, you are still getting the same old thing. Raider’s Management will see the tools and potential and McDaniel will think he can mold any QB (see how well he molded Tim Tebow) into a winner. My issue with Richardson is not how raw he is. My issue is that he has come off as cocky and as if he thinks he does not need a ton of work. I do not see this ending well.

 

 

8. Falcons – There are some that believe that the Falcons are in the market for a QB. I am not buying that one bit. Ridder showed enough potential to build the team around him. So the Falcons do just that. 

 

Should Pick: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech - There is mild risk involved with Tyree Wilson but if all goes well, he is going to be a very good power pass-rusher. The Falcons need to take the pressure off of a young QB so they build their defense up first.

 

Will Pick: Same – The Falcons will be happy to take Wilson here.

 

 

9. Bears – The Bears did a great job of adding a good player in the process of moving down along with getting some extra capital. Now the work begins with getting players that can help them to take it to the next level.

 

Should Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – Cornerback is likely not the top of their list but Gonzalez can be as good as he wants to be. The knock on him is that he lacks an edge but that may be a little off and let’s face it, when you have the potential to earn a ton of money by giving yourself an edge, you tend to do it. I think this would be a very smart pick for them.

 

Will Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern – The Bears could use another Offensive Lineman and Skoronski is consistent and you know what you have with him. Certainly not the most exciting pick but a smart one here.

 

 

10.  Eagles – The Eagles are in full on bonus round here so they can shop for the best player available.

 

Should Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State – Not their greatest need here but adding some juice and a chippy player at CB could really solidify the defense. The Eagles have very solid CBs to start this year if Porter is not quite ready. If he is, boom, you have a starting CB for the next decade or so.

 

Will Pick: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa - Van Ness needs to be eased in and can continue to be a designated pass rusher for a season or two. It is a luxury pick for the Eagles and they can look down the road with a guy that is more talent than true production at this point. 

 

 

11. Titans – Titans can really go a lot of different directions. We will see if they strike a deal for a QB or go with what they have. I am thinking the latter. That means, improve your team for the current QB and future QB. Regardless of which QB they roll with this year, they will need protection.

 

Should Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State - The recent release of Taylor Lewan creates a big hole that Johnson will fill. Easy pick here based on needs. 

 

Will Pick: Same – The Titans have telegraphed their needs a bit here.

 

 

12. Texans – The Texans are back on the board and have a lot of very good players to choose from here to build their team.

 

Should Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State – A month ago I was thinking I was higher on JSN than many others but things have sorted themselves out and he is the top WR now. Metchie possibly coming back allows for some decent depth but adding JSN to go along with a young QB is going to make life much easier for him.

 

Will Pick: Same – This will allow for Ryans and the Texans to focus later efforts on defense where there is more depth in the draft.

 

 

13. Packers – Gutekunst is a bit mysterious with his picks sometimes. The Packers seemed to care about moving up two slots (or maybe it is strictly value and they end up trading down). Unfortunately, a possible target in JSN was just taken so he is out. While he said that clearly Safety and Tight End are needs for the Packers, I am not so sure he follows through with that, especially with the underwhelming athletic testing of the Safeties in this draft.

 

Should Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame – With JSN gone, I just go back to this being the guy I want so I take him here. But likely, the Packers trade down from this spot and grab him later. This is a do not overthink it moment where the Packers need to address the greatest position of need. I was willing to roll with Bobby Tonyan in the past but he clearly never reached his potential (and signed elsewhere). Kincade is fun to watch and has some insane physical tools but Mayer is the more well-rounded of the two. Throw out his physical testing and just watch the tape: he will be good in this league. 

 

Will Pick: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia – Nolan Smith is off the charts athletic and Gutekunst is going to be enamored with his skills. It is hard to argue with this pick other than Smith is a little small. But he will be playing OLB and the guy has serious cover skills.

 

 

14. Patriots – The Patriots are always a wild ride when it comes to drafting. They used to be able to hit on signing veterans or trading for underappreciated ones. Those days are gone so they need to start changing things up. 

 

Should Pick: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa – The Patriots need to roll the dice on potential here and Van Ness is a worthwhile gamble. Some days I think JJ Watt and somedays I think he has no technique and may never find it. Still, the ceiling on him is far too high to ignore.

 

Will Pick:  Myles Murphy, Edge Rusher Clemson – The Patriots were looking at Nolan Smith who was just taken one pick ahead of them. But Belichick will still be happy with an edge rusher who is oozing with potential. Murphy certainly has risk involved and you wonder why he did not progress but the same was said of Rashan Gary.

 

 

15. Jets – The Rodgers trade does not effect anything for the Jets who are picking just two slots lower now. The Jets have telegraphed through free agency that they are looking to draft a tackle here.

 

Should Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee – What a difference a month can make for certain players! Last month when I first started looking at mock drafts, it looked like Wright was a solid 2-3. Now he goes top 15. While I do think that talent wise this is a little high, it is what the Jets need to do. It is clear that there is reason for Wright to jump up, he has all the tools and pieces. Questions are on consistency against top competition but those things happen and he is experienced enough to know what you have with him. The Jets need somebody like that right now.

 

Will Pick: Same – The Jets have focused on weapons for their QB through Free Agency, now they will focus on protecting him.

 

16. Commanders – I guess the question is, do you really believe in Sam Howell? I sure do not. If the Commanders truly do then they can address some other areas of need in the back 7 of the defense.

 

Should Pick: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee – Maybe this is early for him, maybe his college system was built for him, maybe he is a little overaged, and he is injured. But putting on the tape shows a refined QB that takes control of the field and makes good decisions. The overaged thing is also a little odd to me. For example, Kurt Warner was 28 years old when he took over for the Rams. The Rams offered up multiple 1sts and other compensation for and older Matthew Stafford. If you think he is your man, take him.

 

Will Pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State – The Commanders have a bunch of average at best players at CB right now so a CB makes a lot of sense. Porter plays with an edge so he will be good for this team as well. Not a bad pick but maybe not the right pick for them.

 

17. Steelers – The Steelers have a few holes on defense to fill so the draft has set itself up to help them in both scenarios. It is just a matter of which direction to go. 

 

Should Pick: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State – Maybe not the guy most Steelers fans want right now but they need a MLB bad. Henley certainly is a bit of a gamble here but his upside is immense. Bush did not work out so they try their hand at it again. This time, they get a guy who is more of a coverage type than a thumper.

 

Will Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon – Gonzalez should not fall this far but the draft just happened to go in a different direction and the Steelers reap the benefits. He can be as good as he wants to be but needs to focus on the game itself. I think he can do it and this is a steal (no pun there)

 

18. Lions – The Lions still have a few holes on defense and one on offense that they could address here. It is a question of if there is a TE that they want more than addressing the defense.

 

 

Should Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland – Having addressed DT with their first pick the Lions can now bring attention to CB and Banks appears to be an excellent fit for what they will want in a CB. TE is a really tempting pick here but the draft is deep enough at that position that they can find the right guy later.

 

Will Pick: Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson – Having taken a CB with their first pick they will swing back around and grab a solid DT here. Bresee’s game has been centered around playing smart and assignment sure and the pressure will not be on him to be a big play guy right away. That works to the favor of both the player and the team.

 

19. Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have a few holes they need to fill with this pick. But the smart move is to let the QBs currently on the roster duke it out and give help to whichever one wins the job.

 

Should Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas – Robinson is such a wild card as he could go before this or could fall victim to the lower value of RBs. No matter what though, he is not getting past the Buccaneers who really need a RB bad. Robinson has all of the tools that Fournette had but he is niftier and has a better attitude.

 

Will Pick: Same – No way that Robinson falls any further than this.

 

20. Seahawks – The Seahawks have really struggled to find good players at a few different positions in the last decade or so. They addressed the DL in both scenarios already so it is time to look on the other side.

 

Should Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia – Jones is not quite the prospect that Skoronski or Johnson are and does not have the experience of Wright so he fell a bit here. He is not a top tier player but he could be a very good one for a number of years. The Seahawks have needed that at tackle for quite some time.

 

Will Pick: Same – The Seahawks need to invest in the OL and Jones is the more versatile of the 2^nd tier OTs.

 

21. Chargers – The Chargers are more in the mode of building towards the future at this point in time so they are in a good spot to assess the roster and take somebody that they can be patient with.

 

Should Pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU – The Chargers seem to have a “type” when it comes to WR and Johnston falls into that category. He is not a complete player as he still needs to learn the nuances of the position. There are two players currently on the roster that he can learn from for the next season or two. Nice fit and worthy gamble here.

 

Will Pick: Same – This is one of those picks that seem destined to happen but who really ever knows?

 

 

22. Ravens – Eric DeCosta has struggled with his 1^st round picks since taking over as the GM so he needs to right the ship here. While there are a few needs, the Ravens can also go for best player available.

 

Should Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College – While the signing of OBJ strengthens the WR room to a degree, it is time that we admit that he really is a one dimensional player. Flowers needs to refine himself a little bit as well as add a little more weight if possible. If he really dedicates himself, he can be a very good WR.  

Will Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh – I want to like Kancey but there is this little voice in my head that just keeps reminding me that just because he is short and from Pitt does not mean he is Aaron Donald. He is high effort but having the shortest arms of any top defensive tackle since Chris Zorich might be telling. Zorich was a fine player but he was never a dominant player and I feel like Kancey’s ceiling could be Chris Zorich.

 

23. Vikings – The Vikings likely overachieved last year so this spot is not helping them fully address their needs. Still, there are some good players to be had here so they should make out just fine.

 

Should Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland – Banks has some of the best tools of any CB in this draft and tape to back up his abilities. The Vikings have missed on a lot of CBs in the first few rounds of the draft so they are bound to hit on the right one eventually, right? I believe that Banks is going to be the right one.

 

Will Pick: Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson – Essentially the two scenarios just swap between the Lions and the Vikings. Both could use a CB and a DT to strengthen their defenses. Banks is not available and it would be a reach for the next tier of CBs so the Vikings make a smart move here and strengthen the middle of their D-Line.

 

 

24. Jaguars – The Jaguars are one of the most interesting examples of just how much a toxic coach can harm a team. Of course it takes the right coach to fix that team. Clearly the Jaguars have a lot of talent and a bright future so it is just a matter of bringing in another player that can help build the young team and bring them to the next level. 

 

Should Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah – Kincade’s film is so much fun to watch as he makes it look real easy sometimes. His injury is of minor concern and he puts forth effort to block, he is just not very good at it yet. Additionally, he probably needs to add a little weight to even out. On the Jaguars, he should be an instant weapon and Pederson will be creative in how he uses him.

 

Will Pick:  Same – The Jaguars have a need at TE and Kincade is the best receiving TE in the class.

 

25. Giants – Despite doing well last year, the Giants feel like they still have a long way to go on both sides of the ball. Addressing the best player available on either side would be prudent here.

 

Should Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC – Addison is more of a sneaky receiver than dominant one as he knows the position and works the field well. The Giants need to bring in some more playmakers at WR to help Daniel Jones as Jones is more of a system QB than game changing quarterback. Addison is likely to be a complimentary receiver long-term but he could be a really good one.

 

Will Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama – The Giants need defensive back help in general. Branch is a projection to safety as he was more of a slot coverage player in college. However, his tackle rate is incredibly impressive so moving him all around the field would be prudent. He could really become an interesting chess piece similar to LeRoy Butler or Minkah Fitzpatrick.

 

26. Cowboys – The Cowboys are in a bit of a transition on offense but most of the pieces are there. I would love it if they were aggressive on draft day and found a compliment to Tony Pollard. But Robinson is gone and it is too early for Charbonnet. So they will need to turn their attention elsewhere.

 

Should Pick: Nolan Smith, Edge/LB, Georgia – Smith would be a LB on the Cowboys that could move up to standing edge during passing downs. In watching tape on him, I felt that his coverage ability was being a little undersold so I think he projects well to OLB. Imagine all the attention going to Micah Parsons and then Smith is the sneaky one on the other side that gets the sack. 

 

Will Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame – While the thought of Nolan Smith is quite tempting, he is off the board and the Cowboys need a TE after losing Schultz. Mayer is better than Schultz and would be a strong starter for years so this is an easy pick for the Cowboys.

 

27. Bills – The Bills biggest need at this point is in the defensive backfield but they should not reach for anybody. Their board should be stacked with a lot of “best player available”.

 

Should Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama – Branch is the only safety worth a first round pick it would seem. With him being available and the Bills having a need there, this pick is a perfect match.

 

Will Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College – Stefan Diggs cannot play forever and the Bills could use a WR in the wings who can be a specialized player at first. A great situation for Flowers being able to learn the nuances of being a WR from Diggs for a few years and the Bills to have somebody for the future.

 

28. Bengals – I am not sure why the Bengals soured on Jonah Williams so quickly. Perhaps they thought he would be okay switching to the right side after they signed Orlando Brown Jr? In any case, they created an unnecessary need in the process. Do they address it here or wait?

 

Should Pick: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State – Jones is the prototypical grinding right tackle. Get him into a little better shape after a full season in the NFL by having him drop a few pounds and he can be an emergency LT as well. This solves the short-term and long-term problems for them. It also allows them to official move on from Jonah Williams (Jets or Titans need a Tackle?)

 

Will Pick: Same – This is an excellent fit for the Bengals.

 

29. Saints – The Saints were smart to bring Carr in as their QB. They have a strong enough team for him to be successful. Building up both the offensive and defensive lines would be prudent.

 

Should Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh – Maybe I just think this is a perfect situation for Kancey or maybe I just want him to be successful. But I think Dennis Allen could be creative with how he uses Kancey and make him an x-factor type defender. 

 

Will Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida – The Saints have not been able to get their interior quite right. Torrence can be a road grading brute to help to solve this issue. Additionally, getting the top guard at 29 is a win for them. 

 

30. Eagles – The Eagles swing back around and it still feels like they are in the bonus round here. Defense is likely still the name of the game here though offense is not out of the question.

 

Should Pick: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson – Having addressed CB with their first pick the Eagles take a swing at a guy that can rotate in to give Graham some relief and develop his first year. There is a lot to like about Murphy physically and no need to put too much pressure on him as he learns the finer points.

 

Will Pick: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern – Adebawore can play both inside and outside and be a nice compliment to Jordan Davis or make a push to the outside if need be. Taking two DL in the first round might seem excessive but it could also set the position for a long time. Both players may seem like gambles but the physical tools are well worth it for a team with few immediate needs.

 

31. Chiefs – The Chiefs always seem to just be in a reloading mode as Andy Reid is clearly a top-notch coach. With that said, they let a pass-rusher go so that will jump that up the list of needs if a good one is still available here.

 

Should Pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State – Anudike-Uzomah is a fairly polish pass-rusher who can step right in. Like all rookies, there will be some bumps along the way but he should contribute immediately and be a long-term asset.

 

Will Pick: Same – This is a nice pick for the Chiefs who have no need to reach and can just grab a top player at any position of need.

 

That is a wrap!

 

 

 

 

André and Chris do their 10th annual NFL Mock Draft

Welcome to the first first posting of 2023! Unfortunately, I ran out of time this year and videos are not happening. I had one ready for a Should Do and Will Do scenario...and then Rodgers gets traded. But have no fear, I will still blog about it. HOWEVER, Chris and I did our 10th annual mock draft on Sunday so for your enjoyment and to mark it down for historical perspective. Keep in mind, this is not what we think will happen on draft day. This is what we would do if we were the General Managers of the respective teams. 

Round 1

Chris took the first pick last year so André will take odds in the first round and Chris takes evens. Exceptions are when Bears pick, Chris will take Bears pick and then André takes two picks in a row. We played out the scenario with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets making a trade in the second round so the Rodgers trade that happened roughly an hour ago will not be reflected.

Round 1 Recap: Chris was very surprised with André taking Stroud to start with. The tables quickly turned with Chris choosing to go defense with the Texans. Which caused the chain reaction of André trading up with the Seahawks to get Bryce Young. A few GMs were heartbroken but those were the biggest stunners.

Round 2

Chris takes the odds in the second round and André takes evens. When Packers pick then Andre takes that pick and the Chris takes the next two. Presumption is that the Packers and Jets make a trade with Aaron Rodgers and part of the trade is pick 42.

Round 2 Recap: A lot of offensive line flying off the shelf here. The love that Chris and André have for Centers in this draft was evident in this round. After I (André) made my pick of Antonio Johnson for the Packers, I had some small regret thinking I could have doubled down on TEs and got a good Safety later.

Round 3

We flip back to André having the first pick...except the Bears had the first pick so Chris got two picks in a row to start it off. Also, we messed up the order at one point in time, but that was fine by us and we continued. 

Round 3 Recap: It is interesting as this is where you start to struggle with guys that you would love a team to have as well as some players that we clearly liked more than many others. That haul that the 49ers get at the end of this round feels like they are getting three really good players. It felt like this was a round to get a lot of under appreciated players as well.

10th Mock Draft in the books. More content to come but again, time was my enemy in 2023 so no videos but I will post the Should Do Will Do scenario for the first round.