Thursday, April 26, 2018

Mock Draft 3.0 - Will Take and Should Take


Mock Draft 3.0


The final mock draft features two categories, Will Take and Should Take. Will Take represents my predictions of who the team is actually going to take. Should Take is my opinion of who the best player is for that team at that spot. Given the unpredictability of trades, I am going to go back to no trade rules. However, I will make note if a team should move up or if I think they are likely to move up. To make up for teams that do not have a first round pick, projections of who they may pick will follow the Eagles pick.


1. Browns

Will Take – Josh Allen QB Wyoming – I am a little confused on all the misdirection but I have a feeling that Dorsey will look at the potential of Allen and give him the edge here. It takes a lot of guts to do this at this spot under the gun; both Mayfield and Darnold are considered safer picks.

Should Take - Saquon Barkley RB Penn State – I know that a RB is a risk in that they do not always last long. Let’s remove the amazing on the field skills from Barkley for a moment. I heard a report about all the different players at the combine hanging out and going out…except Barkley, he was in his room, he was all football all the time. I hear he even sticks to a stricter diet than most. Now, back to the football field, he is an amazing football player who also understands how to slip defenders and not take as big of hits. Take the best player in the draft 100% of the time.


2. Giants

Will Take: Saquon Barkley RB Penn State – In this scenario the Giants are going to realize that passing up on Barkley would be the most foolish decision they could make. Chubb is a great player but Barkley could further extend the life of Manning and give him something that he has never truly had.  

Should Take: Bradley Chubb DE NC State – After hearing a conversation with Steve Spagnuola discussing Davis Webb and his practice routine, I am convinced that they are more than willing to give him another year or two to prove that he can be the heir to Manning. With that said, the Giants should do the smart thing here and grab a player they could really use. Make no mistake here either, even if they still had Jason Pierre-Paul, this would be the pick they should make.


3. Jets

Will Take – Sam Darnold QB USC – No matter what, this is going to be a QB but the Jets will need to decide which one it will be. The Jets are going to go with Darnold here thinking that he is lower risk than Mayfield but I would thoroughly disagree. Darnold has skills and is a winner but you have to question his decisions at times.

Should Take – Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma – Mayfield is available and I think he is the best fit for the Jets and might be the safest option at QB in this draft. One of the most dangerous intangible traits a QB can have is a chip on their shoulder and Mayfield has that. Let’s be honest here, if Mayfield was 6-3 there would be no debate on him being the best QB in this draft. Remember, Drew Brees fell to the first pick of round 2 because of something as silly as this. Teams need winners and that is what Mayfield is. The difference between Mayfield and Darnold is that Darnold does not make as good of decisions.


4. Browns

Will Take – Quenton Nelson G Notre Dame – In this scenario, the Browns have their QB so they go with the best player on the board. I know a guard going 4th overall seems a little high but if you can get a guy that turns out to be a hall of famer that plays for you for a decade at any position (okay maybe not punter) it does not matter where you took him. In this case, Nelson may also be able to play right tackle but it is hard to say for sure.

Should Take – Lamar Jackson QB Louisville – I keep looking over the QBs and I like Josh Allen a lot. However, in both cases you are looking at a guy that should sit and develop for at least half of the season. So why not go with the guy that has more potential? Jackson could use a little more weight on his frame and he needs to clean up some of his footwork I suppose. I just think you need to be all in here. Can you imagine what people will say about this draft five years from now if the Browns get both Barkley and Jackson even if Jackson is only average?


5. Broncos

Will Take - Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma – Elway is odd and it sounds like he will just keep drafting QBs until he gets it right. I do have a fear that he is going to do something nutty here. However, Mayfield is the safest QB in this draft and has the moxy that this team needs at QB. I feel bad for Case Keenum, he is a good QB but cannot escape being a placeholder here.

Should Take – Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech – Edmunds is a somewhat enigmatic pick here as it is not clear as to where he should play. But a good Defensive Coordinator should be fine with that, why not create a new position for him like Arizona did with Deone Bucannon? That is to say, move him around and scheme to his strengths.


6. Colts

Will Take – Bradley Chubb DE/OLB North Carolina State – This is a total slam dunk for the Colts, they traded down and still got the player they were likely after. Odds are one of the QBs taken ahead of him will be a bust and people will look back and say “They should have just taken Chubb” it is going to be crazy on draft night when this happens!

Should Take – Quenton Nelson G Notre Dame – With the way things are falling in this scenario, this is also a no brainer pick. Solidify your line with a great player that will dominate for years to come.


7. Buccaneers

Will Take – Derwin James S Florida State – I guess this is a pick your poison type of situation. James is a better athlete than Fitzpatrick but less production. I have a feeling that the hype of James is going to push him over the edge here.

Should Take - Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama – Fitzpatrick is just too great of a football player to pass on here. Like Tremaine Edmunds, you can play to his strengths and have the offense guessing what you are going to do with him and who he is covering. Likely, he is a safety but you can drop him into the slot as well.


8. Bears – (I think it is extremely likely that the Bills or Cardinals trade up to this spot to get Lamar Jackson and the Bears could use the extra compensation)

Will Take – Roquan Smith ILB Georgia – This is a tough call here because Tremaine Edmunds makes sense but given that the Bears had Smith in for a visit (I might also be hearing Chris’ voice in the back of my head here) I think they go with Smith. There are a lot of good players available here and the Bears need help on the O-line but the Bears could use a more athletic LB in the middle too.

Should Take - Mike McGlinchey T Notre Dame – With Nelson getting picked already, the Bears do the next best thing and grab his teammate who is also a very good football player. The Bears have brought in weapons for Trubisky, now it is time to protect him. I am not quite sure if McGlinchey is a LT or RT but he should be very good on either side and can start right away. I am very much a build your lines first type of person so this makes the most sense to me even if it is a little high.


9. 49ers – (I think it is extremely likely that the Bills or Cardinals trade up here, whichever team missed out with trading up with the Bears and draft Josh Rosen)

Will Take – Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama – This is a great way to continue to strengthen their defense with a very dynamic player. If the 49ers truly stay here and grab Fitzpatrick, it may turn out to be an absolute steal and instant upgrade.

Should Take - Derwin James S Florida State – James could bring some leadership and swagger to this defense. John Lynch may also need to strap on the shoulder pads and give James some pointers. While I do not know if James is all hype or not, he has the tools and is worth the risk here.


10. Raiders

Will Take - Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech – The Raiders have been strangely quiet about their LBs and I suspect they feel they are going to be able to get a good player in the draft at that position. Edmunds may even be able to give the Raiders some outside rushing eventually but for the time being will man the middle.

Should Take – Roquan Smith LB Georgia – Without Edmunds on the board, the Raiders fill their need with a better ILB that is super athletic but has less long term potential. Regardless of which LB they pick, it may end up splitting hairs when we compare them 5 years down the road.


11. Dolphins

Will Take - Calvin Ridley WR Alabama – The Dolphins seem content with hanging onto Tannehill but they need to provide him with some weapons to work with. Ridley is the most dynamic WR in this draft and has a lot of untapped potential still.

Should Take – Josh Allen QB Wyoming – Josh Allen represents a gamble but watch his tape, he makes some throws that are crazy. Strictly potential, I think he has almost as much as Jackson. The Dolphins never should have drafted Tannehill when they did (I said that at the time as well) and it is time to erase that mistake.  


12. Bills

Will Take - Lamar Jackson QB Louisville – As I said, I think that the Bills will likely trade up to get Jackson or Rosen. In this scenario Jackson is here so they grab their new franchise QB and he will be a steal after sitting on the bench for a year.

Should Take – Will Hernandez G UTEP – Call me crazy all you want here but I am not sure that any of the QBs left in this scenario are a worthwhile risk. AJ McCarron is a functional starter so if you give him protection he might just turn out to be pretty successful. With that said, I did seriously consider taking Mason Rudolph here but I thought that he was a bit too similar to McCarron. Hernandez might turn out to be every bit as dominant as Nelson. This might be a AJ Green or Julio Jones comparison in a few years. Obviously not as sexy though, we are talking about guards.


13. Redskins

Will Take - Josh Rosen QB UCLA – The Redskins have other needs but with Rosen being here, they are going to think about their future. I will make no bones about my opinion of him, he will be a bust. There is something about him and the way he plays that reminds me a bit of Cade McNown when he was coming out of college. If you are not from Chicago, you do not know that I just used a swear word when I said McNown. With that said, at least Rosen never tried to illegally get a handicap sticker for his car.

Should Take – Courtland Sutton WR Southern Methodist – Just be smart about this, your team needs a big WR for your new QB. Sutton is certainly a risk here and both Ridley and DJ Moore are the more dynamic players but Sutton can offer the physical play that the other WR on the Redskins lack.


14. Packers –

Will Take and Should Take - Denzel Ward CB Ohio State – The Packers need a CB to go with last year’s top pick Kevin King. The Packers did sign two holdover players in Tramon Williams and the insurance of Davon House so it will take the pressure off of Ward. If Ward really comes in on fire, either of those two can drop down the depth chart to nickel or dime. I know that logic might say pass rusher here but Ward is the best player on the board.


15. Cardinals

Will Take and Should Take - Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State – With both scenarios playing out this way I think Rudolph is the right pick here. It is likely that the Cardinals will have traded up to land Rosen in the Will Take scenario. With that said, Rosen and Darnold are available in the Should Take scenario so why not take one of them? Well, frankly speaking I do not have as much faith in either of them as I do in Rudolph. Rudolph has been a winner every year and is being very underrated at this point.


16. Ravens

Will Take - Courtland Sutton WR SMU – Sutton is a bit unrefined but the talent is there. It is hard to argue with this pick as the Ravens need somebody to rely on and throw to. They made a bid for Dez Bryant apparently, why not get the younger and less mouthy version of him?

Should Take – Calvin Ridley WR Alabama - With Sutton gone they go with Ridley who is likely just as much of a gamble as Sutton. Ridley is dynamic and worth the gamble at this point. A part of me really would think about DJ Moore here, he is used to below average QBs throwing to him and Flacco is at least average.


17. Chargers –

Will Take - Connor Williams OT Texas – The Chargers continue to ignore OL in the first round and really really really need to do something about that. McGlinchey is gone so they go with the next OT on their board. With that said, I think this is a mistake, Williams has never put it all together and is just too much of a gamble on potential alone.

Should Take – Vita Vea DT Washington – Are you getting Haloti Ngata or Danny Shelton here? I am not sure that Vea is either one but I do think he is better than Shelton. Even if he is just a space eater, the Chargers could use him with the trouble that Liuget is in. I hate to have them ignore OL here, but they need to go with the best player that can help them and look for an OT later.


18. Seahawks

Will Take and Should Take - Josh Jackson CB Iowa – Jackson just seems to be the perfect fit for the Seahawks and how they play defense. The parallels between Jackson’s combine and Richard Sherman’s combine performances are also very interesting to me. While he is not Sherman, Sherman has proven that you do not need to be lighting fast to be a good CB.


19. Cowboys

Will Take – Maurice Hurst DT Michigan – The Cowboys tend to buy into the hype of players many times, Hurst is an overhyped player whose game tape does not match up to the hype in my opinion. The Cowboys will look at him as a talented player that has fallen. I think this would be a big mistake.

Should Take – Taven Bryan DT Florida – Without a dynamite MLB here, the Cowboys should go with the best player on the board that can help them. I am not buying into the “Mini-JJ Watt” nonsense but I think Bryan is going to be a great and versatile player. The Cowboys need to continue to add players like Bryan.


20. Lions

Will Take and Should Take - Marcus Davenport DE Texas-San Antonio – It just makes far too much sense to take Davenport at this point. Davenport is such a great fit here as he really is more of a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 linebacker, the Lions can be patient with him and allow him to develop over a few years. By year 3 he should be very good and they can then exercise the 5th year option on him.


21. Bengals –

Will Take: Vita Vea DT Washington – With Geno Atkins getting a little older and a lot of average talented players at DT, the Bengals go with the dancing bear in the hopes that he will be able to translate that talent and be more than just a space-eater.

Should Take: Da’Ron Payne – Payne might just turn out to be the second best DT in this draft behind Taven Bryan. While the stats may never truly show his value, he will be a very good all-around DT both as a rusher and as a run stuffer. Having Geno Atkins to show him the ropes should help to. I did really consider Leighton Vander Esch or DJ Moore here too. Both could help with correcting previous mistakes.


22. Bills

Will Take and Should Take - James Daniels C Iowa –The loss of Eric Wood presents a major hole in the offensive line so from a position standpoint, this makes perfect sense. However, this is a move to just bring in an excellent football player and protection for their new investment. Daniels looks like he is going to be very special. I know in the Should Take scenario Darnold is sitting there along with Rosen but maybe I believe in AJ McCarron more than I should. With that said, can you imagine the protection any QB will have and the lanes that will be cleared for the RBs? This really could start to turn into a special draft with these two players on the OL. Again, call me crazy all you want, I like it!


23. Patriots

Will Take - Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado – The more I think about it, the more this pick seems like a Patriots pick and player. Oliver needs some work on his zone game but his man to man skills are very good and he is a tough player.

Should Take – Sam Darnold QB USC – This is where the talent becomes too great to pass up and this is a good spot for Darnold. He can be molded for a year or two before Brady is forced to hang up the cleats. I know we want to think he can play forever but a strange thing happens to QBs when they get into those 40s.


24. Panthers

Will Take and Should Take – Jaire Alexander CB Louisville – Previously I had Hughes here. But the more I look into it the more I think that Alexander has a slight edge over Hughes. Both are very similar players but Alexander has better experience.


25. Titans

Will Take and Should Take – Leighton Vader Esch LB Boise State – This draft just seems to be full of these LBs that can play multiple positions. LVE can be moved around a little bit but will likely be tested as an ILB first and then might play a little OLB in the future. Either way, it is a position of need.


26. Falcons

Will Take – Taven Bryan DT Florida State – This is another great match for a team that could really use a guy like Bryan. I suspect that they will want to put a little more weight on him so he holds up a bit better at DT but that is down the road. For now, he just needs to keep doing what he does.

Should Take – Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma – In this scenario, the top DTs are gone so they can grab somebody later. Ryan Schraeder is a decent RT but Brown should be an upgrade. The guy had a terrible combine, I get it, but he faced up to it and was legitimately embarrassed by it. Look at the tape, the guy can play. This turns into a real steal in this scenario and the Falcons have two bookend tackles for a number of years.


27. Saints

Will Take - Hayden Hurst TE South Carolina – The Saints want to give Brees new weapons and his tight ends have been a bit iffy these last couple of years. Hurst is mature and is a solid all around tight end but I was stunned when I first started looking at tape that he was this highly thought of. He seems more like a 3rd – 4th rounder to me and I would prefer a few other TEs here. But, I am not the Saints and Hurst should be solid.

Should Take – DJ Moore WR Maryland – I want to say that I really truly think that Moore could turn out to be the best of the WR in this draft. There is a bit of an unknown with him but he sure looks good to me. He would be the perfect complement to Michael Thomas and is better than the recently lost Willie Snead.


28. Steelers

Will Take and Should Take - Rashaan Evans LB Alabama – Evans is a solid player and the Steelers need to fill the hole created by the loss of Shazier. There are no guarantees that Shazier is out for good but it sounds like he will be out for 2018. If he comes back, you have two very talented ILBs in 2019. If not, then you have covered yourself. A part of me does not like this pick but that may just be emotionally charged since I want to see Shazier come back. Evans is a good little LB that should have some of the same dynamic traits as Shazier though I am not sure if he is quite at his level.


29. Jaguars

Will Take - DJ Moore WR Maryland – Moore is used to poor quarterback play and Bortles is better than poor. Moore is a smart and explosive player who will do well in the NFL. Nice pick here to help a team that needs to reload their WRs. Like I said, Moore is one of my favorite players in this draft.

Should Take – Anthony Miller WR Memphis – Miller may not exactly be a first round talent on the surface. However, the more you watch him the more you have to ponder if he was the reason why Riley Ferguson and to a lesser degree Paxton Lynch looked as good as they did. The Jaguars need a reliable WR and Miller will fit that bill even if he may never be a top 5 WR.


30. Vikings

Will Take – Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame – It is strange to think that he will fall this far but if you look at the board it is quite possible. While there may be some thought of the Patriots taking him at 23, they have other plans in mind so McGlinchey falls into the laps of the Vikings and is a steal.

Should Take – Martinas Rankin OT Mississippi State – With most of the top OTs gone at this point (Connor Williams is a bust to me and I am not as hot on Kolton Miller) the Vikings go with a strong candidate to play LT and Reiff plays RT. It may not look like a good pick here or even in the first season but Rankin could turn out to be the best OT in this draft in a few years.


31. Patriots –

Will Take and Should Take- Brian O’Neil OT Pitt – Don’t ask me why, but I have a feeling that this is how things will fall. Per what I previously said, the Patriots target and hone in on underappreciated OL that have loads of potential. Think about when they drafted Sebastian Vollmers, I loved him at the time but had him as a 4th or 5th, not a 2nd and it worked. Even Logan Matkins was considered an odd pick for the end of the 1st round. O’Neil is still growing and is smart, athletic, powerful for his size, and has plenty of growth potential at a position they need. In the Should Take scenario, there are plenty of pass rushers available but the Patriots will find those later O’Neil is on the rise and may not be there. I really like the potential of O’Neil.

  
32. Eagles

Will Take - Will Hernandez OG UTEP– Plain and simple, Hernandez does not belong here and should never fall this far, but the board pushed him down and the Eagles walk away with a steal.

Should Take – Sam Hubbard DE Ohio State – Hubbard is getting pushed down too far on some boards but he has been a darn good player. With the mistake of Michael Bennett (he is older too) and the loss of Vinny Curry, Hubbard could be a nice young replacement to continue to strengthen an already strong pass rush.


Teams without a first round pick – Obviously a lot can happen after the first round. Both the Texans and the Rams will not have a pick until round 3 and the Chiefs will have their first pick in round 2. In all cases it is a little hard to project so here is a good fit for each team that should be available.


Kansas City Chiefs (2nd round 54) – Tim Settle DT Virginia Tech – Settle is a strong space eater that can strengthen the center of the defense. While he is not the flashiest of players, he should be a solid addition to the Chiefs.


Houston Texans (3rd round 68) – Austin Corbett C/G Nevada – Corbett is a nasty little player that should help to strengthen some of the holes in the Texans line. He is being a little underrated at this point in time so he should be there in the 3rd.


Los Angeles Rams (3rd round 87) – Micah Kiser ILB Virginia – The Rams are my favorite team to crash and burn this year (I don’t mean that I want them to, I just think they will). The Washington Redskins used to try to buy their teams in Free Agency. But what happens when you bring in too many personalities at once, the team starts to fall apart and divide. With that said, they needed some picks to reload for the inevitable collapse. They are going to miss out on a good player that would fit them well by being this far down. Kiser is not a bad player and he fits a need, but it is going to be tough sailing in the future.


There are certainly some strong opinions here and some players that many are projecting will go by the end of the first round. With that said, we know it never plays out that way. Now that we are upon the draft, let’s have some fun and see what happens. In the end, for all of us draftniks this and everything that is in here is all fun! But we do want to see our favorite teams take our favorite players of course.

Look out tomorrow for yet another post on round 1 before rounds 2 and 3 start!

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