As usual, the Draft Compass provides different lines of reality between the different types of Mock Drafts. As is the case every year this addition focuses in on two teams, The Packers and The Bears. No requests for another team but that can always happen in the future
This line of reality focuses on the team needs and the
players that I think they should pick that would likely be available at
that pick. As was the case as last year, I did a series of draft simulations
(at least a dozen but maybe more) to assess my thoughts on both of teams, who
will likely be there, and who should be picked. Comparing each of the
simulations I came to specific conclusions on where certain guys should likely
be taken. Additionally, I have a Priority
Free Agent pick for each team as well.
Packers Picks: Like
usual, Gutekunst did an excellent job of making it so he did not need to reach
for anybody. Maybe I will eat these words but I am at a loss as to why the
general media feels the Packers need to reach for an Offensive Tackle in the
first round is beyond me. The way I see it, the Packers can identify and take
whoever is the top MLB, WR, or CB in round one and then go from there. They
could also use another good DL or two–a nickel 3-technique and a run stuffer in
that order. They should also double down on a few positions. We all know, it is
highly unlikely the Packers hang onto all of their picks but I will stick with
no trades. But seriously, he is trading up in round 1.
Needs: Middle
Linebacker, Cornerback, Wide Receiver, Defensive Line, Offensive Tackle, speedy
or one cut running back, maybe TE/H-Back
Round 1 (29) – Zaven
Collins LB Tulsa – The first time I put on tape to watch this guy gave me
little doubt as to how good he is going to be in the NFL. I am not sure if he
falls this far or not but if he does, they should grab him right away. If they
traded up for him (as Gutekunst loves to do) great. Everywhere the ball is, he
is there. Watching his tape reminded me
of Blake Martinez when it comes to ball tracking but he is a significantly
better athlete with more coverage skills. If he is drafted ahead of the
Packers, I might cry. But just in case….Back-up
plan: Asante Samuel Jr. CB Florida State – I understand that Samuel is 5-10
and 180 lbs but he plays much bigger than that. Cornerback is such an
interesting position because swagger (a fine line between that and cockiness)
and a short memory are such intangible skills that they need to have. Samuel
has both. You better believe that this guy has been training his whole life
(Much like Jaycee Horn who will also be a stud) to be better than his dad.
There is just so much fun in watching him play.
Round 2 (62) – Scenario
1 Packers Get Zaven Collins in the first round: Alim McNeal DT North Carolina State – It is so hard to project
where McNeal is going to be drafted. However, if he is here I think it is an
easy pick. The combination of getting a big strong DL to go with a crazy
athlete LB in the first changes the defense. I firmly believe that McNeal is
only scratching the surface of what he can do with some good coaching.
If McNeal is gone: Consideration
1: Liam Eichenberg T Notre Dame – While the Packers need at OT is
overblown, Eichenberg is an incredible quality pick here that can take his time
to develop and fill in if needed. You need tough guys on the Offensive Line and
Eichenberg earned that designation in college.
Consideration 2 if Eichenberg
is also gone (I know I am really going down my board list here) - Quinn Meinerz
C Wisconsin-Whitewater – Wouldn’t it have been something if he was never
invited to the Senior Bowl? Maybe just a Shrine Game invite to get his name on
the map. Much as Ali Marpet did a few years ago, Meinerz showed up to those
practices ready to play and looked to be the best OL there. This is me under
the impression that Dyami Brown WR North
Carolina (more on that below) will be take already or he would be a great
pick here. He is simply just the best player on the board here
Scenario 2 the
Packers pick Asante Samuel Jr. in the first round: Jamin Davis LB Kentucky – There
are certainly some concerns here with him being more of an athlete than LB but
put on the tape, he is pretty good. Now, because of the former, he may get
overdrafted so…back-up plan: Jabrill Cox
LB LSU – Cox is not as complete of a player but the Packers could use a
coverage LB and Cox fits that bill. The thing to really like about Cox is that
he is always fighting to show he is better than others think he is. Linebackers
need to be willing to throw their gloves off to fight and I think Cox has that
in him.
Round 3 (92) – Benjamin
St. Juste CB Minnesota – This pick is prime time to select a CB and St.
Juste is on the rise. I did highly consider Thomas Graham Jr. CB Oregon who I also like quite a bit (Packers
interview him) but I am giving St. Juste the edge here because he is can be a
force on the outside. Sure, he is a gamble, but he is worthy one.
Round 4 (135) – Cade
Johnson WR South Dakota State – There are bigger name guys in this draft at
WR and smaller guys getting a little more press than Johnson. But throw on the
game tape and watch him play. He is not just a jitter bug as his hands are
legit. Yeah, there will be some adjustments that need to made and some coaching
and so forth. But I foresee him to a Rodger favorite. He reminds me so much of
Greg Jennings but a little skinnier and less outspoken (Greg Jennings, what are
you doing saying that?). He will be a darn good kick returner his rookie year
and slowly work his way into the offense here and there.
Round 4 (142) – D’Ante
Smith T East Carolina – Smith is not ready for the NFL yet but has both the
tools, ridiculous build, and desire to be good. The Packers can be patient here
and develop him for a few years down the road where he takes over at RT.
Round 5 (173) –
Shemar Jean-Charles CB Appalachian State - One of my draft crushes here. I
loved watching game tape on Shemar Jean-Charles. He reminds me so much of when
I watched tape on Steven Nelson where is not the biggest or fastest (though in
both cases on-field speed looks pretty good) but man he is feisty. I love the
way he plays the game and never backs down. He is likely just a slot cornerback
but that is essentially a starting position.
Round 5 (178) – Tre
Walker WR San Jose State – Walker had a lousy pro day and that has likely
given some teams some pause. He is also a bit skinny too but he can give Donald
Driver a call and have him coach him through some extra meals. The bottom line
here is that Walker is a little rough around the edges and needs to learn some
of the nuances of catching and securing the ball. However, he has agility and
quicks that cannot be taught. That bodes well for both kick returning and run
after the catch.
Round 6 (214) –
Darius Stills DL West Virginia – Another draft crush of mine. Watching
Stills play is like watching a Jedi deflect blaster shots. He just never stops
fighting through the defensive line and strings moves together well. He reminds
me so much of Mike Daniels but he is not a strong wrestler type. With that
being said, any offensive lineman that takes even a tenth of a second break from
Stills is going to lose. He is always around the ball. If he falls this far,
and it sounds like he might, he is going to be an appreciated part of any team.
Probably just a rotational player or Nickel rusher but that is fine.
Round 6 (220) – Jimmy
Morrissey C Pittsburg – NFL Centers are made from a combination of brains,
anger, and scrappiness. Morrissey has all of these traits. In 2009 (The
previous blog: http://mercurianstarchild.blogspot.com/2009/03/)
I had A.Q. Shipley as the last entry on my “Ugly” list and was pretty high on
him for the same reasons. Shipley just retired this year due to injury. I have
a feeling that Morrissey is of the same ilk.
Round 7 (256) – Gary
Brightwell RB Arizona – Brightwell is a pure runner at this point as his
pass protection woes kept him off the field apparently. Still, watching some of
his runs are a thing of beauty. No running back comes into the NFL with great
blocking skills so Brightwell can learn on the job. He is an all potential
player here with some possibility for a few runs here and there but he could be
an excellent complement to the Thunder and Lightning of AJ Dillon and Aaron
Jones respectively. Worth a look here.
Priority Undrafted
Free Agent: Taylor Riggins Edge Buffalo – Riggins was overshadowed by
Koonce at Buffalo but he was a legit good player there. His biggest issues come
from playing with his hand in the dirt, move him back to a 3-4 Outside
Linebacker and you may really have something.
Bears Picks: The Bears are all over the place with needs and many are self-inflicted wounds here. They finally have a first round pick again so that helps. There should be a very good player at both Cornerback and Offensive Tackle when they pick in the first. Quarterback is going to be tricky because the best will be gone when they pick in the first and not likely worth it in the 2nd with one exception. I find it to be a small miracle that the Bears did not fire Pace after last year. His decisions are incredibly head scratching at times, so who knows what they will do.
Needs: Offensive
Tackle, Cornerback, Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Safety, Coverage ILB
Round 1 (20) – Alijah Vera-Tucker OT USC – In nearly
every draft scenario I did, this was the pick for the Bears. AVT may have
played guard in college up until this past season but he is a legit tackle in
the NFL. Maybe he is never a superstar but the Bears need to get some stability
at the tackle position and AVT is a good starting point. Other Considerations: Greg Newsome II CB Northwestern or whoever is the
top CB at this spot (the top 5 are all pretty darn good)
Round 2 (52) – Dyami
Brown WR North Carolina – The Bears seem pretty bent on trying to move on
from their receiving room minus Mooney. Brown is the next in line among the WR and
is a solid overall option. He is probably not a lead dog but should be a good
complimentary receiving threat if he does not develop into a top receiver. The one contingency – If Kyle Trask is
available here then the Bears should jump on taking him. But nobody else at QB
is worth it here in my book.
Round 3 (83) – Tay
Gowen CB University of Central Florida – I have seen Gowen all over the
board and I get it, he is from a medium sized school, but he has a skill set
that would dictate he should be able to step up no problem. The Bears cannot
afford to pass up a CB in their first three picks. If they take a CB in the first round – Brady Christensen OT BYU –
Do not believe the thoughts that he needs to play guard in the NFL. He is a
legit OT who protected Zach Wilson very well.
Round 5 (164) – Simi Fehoko WR Stanford – The Bears
need to try to double down on receiver because they are going to start losing
WR soon. Fehko is raw but his upside is huge and has shown some impressive
flashes. That is precisely what the 5th round is for.
Round 6 (204) – Tommy
Doyle T Miami (OH) – The MAC has put out some solid offensive lineman over
a number of years. Doyle may not be ready right away but in the long run he
could be a beast of a Right Tackle. The light needs to turn on for him but for
a 6th round pick, he may be an amazing steal.
Round 6 (208) – Sam
Ehlinger QB Texas – Doubling down at QB is not a bad idea if Trask is
drafted. If not, I honestly do not care for any of the QBs that go after him
all the way up to Ehlinger. Go back and watch the Senior Bowl game and you will
see that Ehlinger outplayed essentially every QB in the game. Every year I try
to find the next Tim Rattay and nobody quite gets there but I am going to keep
trying. Ehlinger has all of the same traits and physical limitations. But in
the end, a game manager can help you to not lose the game.
Round 6 (221) – Christina
Uphoff S Illinois State – Uphoff is going to be taking a jump in
competition and he is likely a low end starting safety in the NFL. However, he
could be a chess piece as a nickel linebacker or run stopping safety. Just as
important is that guys like him are the background special teams players that
every team quietly needs.
Round 6 (228) – Mac
MacCain III CB North Carolina A&T – Likely the CBs will have dried up
by this point so why not take a shot at a smaller school guy who has all the tools
and instincts. There will be a jump in competition but the Bears need to start
throwing some mud on the wall here.
Undrafted Targets –
Brady Davis QB Illinois State – The Bears should continue to throw mud on
the wall here. Davis has every right to be in the conversation for a priority
free agent if not a draftable prospect. Any Quarterback that is tough enough to
go back into a game with a torn ACL and throw a TD is somebody that you should
have in camp competing. Here is the reality, he has some of the same tools as a
lot of the other QBs in the second tier of QBs in this draft. I like him more
than most of those QBs but because he went to a small school, he is going to go
much later if not go undrafted.
Happy Draft Eve!
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