Playing the Odds with Quarterbacks

With the discussion of Quarterbacks in this draft and the 49ers making the huge jump up it really got me thinking. I was curious about years where there were multiple Quarterbacks taken in the first round and what the general success rate was. 

The thought here is that when one or two QBs go in the first round there is more potential for reaches. When there are four or more QBs taken in the first round, sure the final one may be a reach, but that provides you with a good sample size of good QBs. Given this, I took all of the drafts from 1983 – 2018 (2020 is too early to tell of course but I personally think it is going to be a major outlier) and judged if somebody was a total bust and obviously, there is also still hope for 2018 QBs. My criteria for being a bust is probably a little more qualitative but I judged somebody a bust if they were not at least a decent starter for a number of years in the NFL and the big one is if they finished with a lower TD to INT ratio the they were busts (Sorry Joe Namath, you still are the most overrated Hall of Famer of all time and would be a bust). The toughest one was deciding on 2003 with Byron Leftwich and Rex Grossman. I gave the nod to Leftwich. 1987 also presented some issues but I put only Kelly Stouffer in the bust category, everybody else had longer careers and had some shining moments. Tony Eason just squeezes his way into not falling into my bust category. With that said, feel free to judge for yourself at the bottom.

With all of this said, we are looking at a 58% success rate. For the fun of it, I am rounding that down to 50% for this exercise. Given this and that the 2021 draft could have possibly 6 first rounder QBs I wanted to play the odds of who would make it and who would not.

 

Successful
Trevor Lawrence	Clemson	Seriously, this is the easiest call of all. His success, pressure experience, and cool demeanor coming out of college is rare.  I would be absolutely stunned if he does not work out.
Mac Jones	Alabama	I feel like Jones is never going to be a star but we are going to reflect back on his career and consider him to be a solid Quarterback.
Trey Lance	North Dakota State	The toughest call for the successful QBs because he is so raw and inexperienced. Still, when I watch him, I see a Quarterback who is charismatic and has the drive to be successful.
Busts
Justin Fields	Ohio State	I cannot get over his bird-dogging of receivers. He just looks robotic in his decision making. I think he is the biggest bust among the top QBs
Kyle Trask	Florida	Trask just does not fit into the first round in my eyes. But I think he I going to be a 1st round reach. He is not bad but will not be a savior for a franchise even if he is developed over time. He is right at the border of Leftwich type career but a hair below
Zach Wilson	BYU	The toughest call of all here because I really like Wilson. But his spastic moments in the pocket scare me a little bit. I fear that he is the David Carr of this draft in that he may develop PTSD and fear after getting smacked around a little. With that said, I put him in this category only for this exercise. I think he is going to be good in the NFL.

 

Historic 1983 – 2018 (Busts in Orange)
2018	1	1	Baker Mayfield	Browns	Oklahoma
2018	3	3	Sam Darnold	Jets	USC
2018	7	7	Josh Allen	Bills	Wyoming
2018	10	10	Josh Rosen	Cardinals	UCLA
2018	32	32	Lamar Jackson	Ravens	Louisville
2012	1	1	Andrew Luck	Colts	Stanford
2012	2	2	Robert Griffin	Redskins	Baylor
2012	8	8	Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	Texas A&M
2012	22	22	Brandon Weeden	Browns	Oklahoma State
2011	1	1	Cam Newton	Panthers	Auburn
2011	8	8	Jake Locker	Titans	Washington
2011	10	10	Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	Missouri
2011	12	12	Christian Ponder	Vikings	Florida State
2004	1	1	Eli Manning	Chargers	Mississippi
2004	4	4	Philip Rivers	Giants	North Carolina State
2004	11	11	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	Miami (OH)
2004	22	22	J.P. Losman	Bills	Tulane
2003	1	1	Carson Palmer	Bengals	USC
2003	7	7	Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	Marshall
2003	19	19	Kyle Boller	Ravens	California
2003	22	22	Rex Grossman	Bears	Florida
1999	1	1	Tim Couch	Browns	Kentucky
1999	2	2	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	Syracuse
1999	3	3	Akili Smith	Bengals	Oregon
1999	11	11	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	Central Florida
1999	12	12	Cade McNown	Bears	UCLA
1987	1	1	Vinny Testaverde	Buccaneers	Miami (FL)
1987	6	6	Kelly Stouffer	Cardinals	Colorado State
1987	13	13	Chris Miller	Falcons	Oregon
1987	26	26	Jim Harbaugh	Bears	Michigan
1983	1	1	John Elway	Colts	Stanford
1983	7	7	Todd Blackledge	Chiefs	Penn State
1983	14	14	Jim Kelly	Bills	Miami (FL)
1983	15	15	Tony Eason	Patriots	Illinois
1983	24	24	Ken O'Brien	Jets	California-Davis
1983	27	27	Dan Marino	Dolphins	Pittsburgh

 

Thanks for reading!!!