First Mock Draft of 2021! Time for some craziness!!!

First Mock Draft of the Season. Okay, I am running behind on this due to AN INSANE TRADE LAST WEEK!!! Also, no combine might have hurt my momentum. Speaking of insane, this is going to be the most insane draft ever due to so many unknowns. How many guys are goingto be drafted off of 2019 performances and totally stink? How many raw guys have breakout years and then jump into the NFL and continue that momentum. The undrafted free agent market is likely going to be chock full of great signings. I am going to venture to guess that this year will be looked back upon as one of the greatest undrafted free agent years.

Per usual, I am going to set this up where I have the Should Pick and the Will Pick scenarios. So, my opinion is heavily weighted with the André opinion/analysis and my best guess with the traditional mock draft in the latter. But we all know there are outrageous things that will happen!

1.    Jaguars – Should Pick: Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson

Has there been an easier first overall pick to call since Andrew Luck? For whatever Trevor Lawrence is or will be, this has been a slam dunk the entire time. The reality is that he was a freshman phenomenon that kept it up and most cannot pull that off. He checks off almost all of the boxes that you want in a Quarterback on top of being something for fans to be excited about.

Will Pick: Same

 

2.    Jets – Should Pick: Penei Sewell OT Oregon

What they really should do is trade down and get a mint. But I will address that scenario in the future. Keeping this pick, I guess this boils down to one thing, who do you truly believe is the Can’t Miss Prospect here? In this case, I am not sure that Zach Wilson is a sure fire can’t miss. He is pretty darn good and the only thing I do not like about him is he is a bit spastic in the pocket at times and that worries me. I do not think it is time to give up on Darnold yet and there really is no reason to do so. A porous line will destroy a young QB so fix that first while you still have a strong talent under center. Having Becton and Sewell as your book ends would be phenomenal for any QB.  If Sewell can live up to be a rock solid LT then it will help Darnold short and long term. If Darnold lays another egg then the Jets can move on in a year or bring in competition from elsewhere.

 

Will Pick: Zach Wilson QB BYU

I do not see any way that they keep this spot and not go QB. Wilson is the clear number 2 in this draft and I personally think that there is a massive gap in front and behind him. 

 

3.    49ers - Should Pick: Zach Wilson QB BYU

You do not give up three first round picks for anything but a QB. The 49ers made this move so I am going to stick with their logic here. I like Wilson a lot but like I said, he seems to be a bit spastic in the pocket. The size thing does not concern me as much because we have seen plenty of guys that are successful at his size. Additionally, if this is the scenario and all goes well, then Jimmy G starts this year and Wilson can add a little bit of weight to protect himself.

 

Will Pick: Justin Fields QB Ohio State

In this scenario, Wilson is not available, so they do that silly thing and go with Fields. Man, Fields has all the tools in the world, right? Watch him play and you can see those tools on display…as well as who he is targeting on the field. He bird-dogs wide receivers like crazy and that is not going to work in the NFL. It is correctible but it is a major risk. I am really having a hard time seeing Fields being successful in the NFL.

 

4.    Falcons –  Should Pick:

Trey Lance QB North Dakota State - Again, this is a better spot for a trade down but they may not find a taker who has the ammunition to move up this far (Patriots). I have gone so back in forth on this pick with looking at the now versus the future. I do not think they want a QB but they have to know that last year was likely a one off and they will never get a shot at a top talented QB while still having a veteran in the ranks. I love watching the way that Lance plays the game. If you can polish the rough edges of a backyard QB and refine him into the talented guy that he is then you get a guy that will rival the skill set of Mahomes.

 

Will Pick: Penei Sewell OT Oregon

In this scenario it would be incredibly hard to argue this pick. Quarterback can play a long time if you protect them and I think the Falcons are in a win now mode. Matt Ryan has always been on the border of very good and great so he has the skills and protecting him can open up the door for getting the ball out to his top-notch receivers as well as opening larger holes for the running backs.

 

5.    Bengals – Should Pick: Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama

There are a lot of places that you could go here but Surtain is going to be consistent if nothing else. The Bengals have been struggling to truly find that type of CB in the first round and they have their shot here. It truly is a tough call here between Surtain and Farely but Surtain seems to be the safer pick. I know that I am likely higher on him than most and it is not a sexy pick but I think it is the right pick.

 

Will Pick: Kyle Pitts TE Florida

Pitts is very dynamic so he is going to be able to play and contribute right away. But you give up a lot when you draft a player like this because he is so good in one area and so lax in the other area that you want with a TE. He will add a great dynamic to this team theoretically but I am just not sure he is going to be enough of a difference maker.

 

6.    Dolphins – Should Pick: Micah Parsons LB Penn State

Parsons is a rare player in skill and versatility. He will be the Quarterback of this defense for years to come. I know there are the off the field issues that just came out but signs are pointing to him not being involved. However, that also means that he is going to get knocked down a little and that is a shame. To me, he is what Trevor Lawrence is to QB in this draft.

 

Will Pick: Same, this pick just makes too much sense.

 

7.    Lions – Should Pick: Ja’Marr Chase WR LSU

I am not in the same boat as many others with Chase. I do not necessarily believe that he is going to be a super star. But I do think he is going to be quietly effective as a WR every year. We have been spoiled in years past with Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, etc. But there is something to be said of a reliable target who you have faith in. I think that is what Chase is ultimately going to be. Sure, Jaylen Waddle may be more dynamic but Chase is the safer pick here. With the loss of Kenny Golliday, the Lions need to give Goff some targets.

 

Will Pick: Sorry for being boring, but same, again, this pick just makes too much sense

 

8.    Panthers – Should Pick: Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama

I know Teddy was underwhelming last year and maybe I am too big of a believer in him but I really would pass on a QB here and give Bridgewater more weapons. Guys like Waddle do not grow on trees and if Rhule could get what he got out of Curtis Samuels last year, Waddle is a major upgrade in the receiving department and just as if not more dynamic with the ball in his hands.

 

Will Pick: Trey Lance QB North Dakota State

I like the player and pick overall but I think it is going to take Lance a year to be ready. Lance needs to be drafted by the right team and I do not think the Panthers are the right team.

 

9.    Broncos – Should Pick: Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern

With the recent signing of Kyle Fuller that opens up the door to look on Offense. I have never been a big believer in Drew Lock but he deserves a chance to redeem himself. You have to throw out Slater’s height and accept that the dude can play. Maybe he starts out at guard his rookie year but he is an NFL tackle. Give Lock his protection and see what he can do.

 

Will Pick: Same, with Elway out of the room the Broncos make a smart move.

 

10.  Cowboys – Should Pick: Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina

This is a throw caution to the wind decision. The Cowboys need a CB bad and the issue is that Farley needs another back surgery. He should be ready for the start of the season but you just need to wonder about his durability over time. Is Horn enough of a downgrade to take the risk, I do not think so.

 

Will Pick: Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech

Maybe I am just throwing too much caution to the wind but combining Farley opting out and suddenly needing surgery again, I am just scared by him.

 

11.  Giants – Should Pick: TE Kyle Pitts TE Florida

I am not a big fan of the top ranked pass-rushers in this draft personally. The Giants could also consider OL here as well. Sure, they have a similar player in Evan Engram, but Pitts is better and it can only make the group of weapons more dynamic. By putting him at the number 2 TE on the team, you allow for playing to his strengths so defenses have to choose who to focus on. This is a situation where they really should just go with the best player available.

 

Will Pick: Jayson Oweh Edge Miami

Gettleman just cannot help being so Gettleman so he makes the most Gettleman of Gettleman picks after Oweh had an outrageous pro day. I tried to find plays where I like Oweh and they did not exist. He is a major boom or bust and needs to go to the right situation and this is not the right situation.

 

12.  Eagles –  Should Pick: Asante Samuel Jr. Florida State

With the WR group drying up a little and a run on CBs happening, it is tough to pass on Samuel here. I think he is getting incredibly underrated but he is going to be a star. I just do not have the same value on DaVonta Smith and think a WR can come later.

 

Will Pick: Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama

Nobody ever said life was fair and it certainly is not with the Eagles getting Waddle here along with a bonus first round pick next year. I know Waddle is a risk but I am leaning towards him being the most exciting WR in this draft. Eagles have a reliable deep threat now.

 

13.  Chargers Should Pick: Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech

Whether he stays at tackle or guard, Darrisaw could be that last piece to building a brick wall of an offensive line. Protect your investment as best as possible. Darrisaw should be stout if nothing else and has the potential to really be great. Cornerback is needed but this is a deep enough class where they can get somebody serviceable a little later.

 

Will Pick: Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama

It is outrageous that a cornerback that is this good is still available so they have to pounce on him here to make up for cutting/fading of Casey Heyward. I truly think that Surtain will be a solid presence for a long time.

 

14.  Vikings – Should Pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker OT USC

Vikings have missed on many Offensive Tackles in the past but they need to hit on somebody. Offensive Line is a clear need for them, though I think I may be a bigger fan of AVT than others. Sure, it is a slight gamble to see if he truly can stay at Tackle but it is a worthy shot at this point.

 

Will Pick: Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech

The Vikings clearly need help on the offensive line and there is value here. Darrisaw is not a sure thing but they need to take their shot and he has the potential to be great.

 

15.  Patriots– Should Pick: Mac Jones QB Alabama

I love the matching of the Patriots and Mac Jones. Sure, it is likely that they will need to move up for him but they need to target him. He has enough talent and a good head on his shoulders. That is the exact profile of every quarterback that has been successful with the Patriots.

 

Will Pick: Same – No reason to change a good thing here.

 

16.  Cardinals– Should Pick: Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech

This is that area where the risk is worth the reward at a position of need. The medicals have got to scare you a bit but the upside is an absolute steal. I know it is a different position and different injury but look at the medicals of Frank Gore coming out of college and what he is still doing.

 

Will Pick: Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina

This is going to be a draft where we look back years down the road and not believe that there were cornerbacks like Horn ripe for the picking at 16^th overall as well as numerous other guys picked after him. A steal at this point.

 

17.  Raiders– Should Pick: Trevon Moehrig S TCU

This is a situation where they need to look at their greatest need to who is best on the board to avoiding past mistakes. Moehrig is a safe pick and they need some talent and stability on the offense. Sure Christian Barmore is tempting here but he may be more of the same with the players they already have.

 

Will Pick: Same – They surprisingly make a good move here instead of the Mike Mayock, “Bet you did not think we were going to overdraft this guy” special.

 

18.  Dolphins– Should Pick: Teven Jenkins OT Oklahoma State

Jenkins has a lot going for him and should be worthy of this pick here which also helps the Dolphins a lot. They need to rebuild their line and bring in some talent so Tua has some solid protection. Not sexy but it is the right pick.

 

Will Pick: Najee Harris RB Alabama

I have a feeling that Harris is going to be a surprise first round pick. Honestly, I would not hate this pick. I think Harris’ “lack of speed” is diversion from teams. He has had big breakaway runs in his career. I just have a strange feeling that the Dolphins go for their guy here after addressing LB with their first pick. This also helps to ease pressure off of Tua.

 

19.  Washington Football Team– Should Pick: Zaven Collins LB Tulsa

I firmly believe that Collins is going to be an absolute stud in the NFL. It is always funny to me when you hear multiple different knocks on a guy that contradict each other. I have heard speed and tackling then I have heard others say those are his strength. In the end, I think he is going to be a matchup nightmare wherever he goes. He could really solidify this front seven. The question of where you line him up is the very reason that teams will not know how to attack the defense.

 

Will Pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame

There is no denying that JOK has been a beast in college and maybe he keeps that up in the NFL in the right defense. I think the Washington Football Team is a good spot for him because they have a creative coaching staff and Rivera has worked well with guys like him. But he is no sure thing.

 

20.  Bears– Should Pick: DeVonta Smith WR Alabama

Smith’s lack of weight issues are going to hurt his stock because you just do not know if he will last in the NFL. If he follows the example of how Donald Drive kept weight on then he might just make it as a top receiver in the NFL. The Bears seem to be bent on starting Andy Dalton and finding a developmental guy waiting in the wings. Allen Robinson is not going to stick around here too much longer, Mooney is a quick little speedster with potential, Smith could fit right in there and help Dalton and QBX

 

Will Pick: Same – Pace is not that silly…is he????

 

21.  Colts – Should Pick: Kwity Paye Edge Rusher Michigan

I just do not know about Paye. I mean, it is all there but he needs to actually use it. He has freakish abilities and he wins a lot and is disruptive but he is still a little one-dimensional at this point. He will need some very good coaching because he is a major boom-or-bust.

 

Will Pick: Same – This is the part of the draft where you go after a super talented guy at a position of need. Still, I am leaning towards a bust at this point.

 

22.  Titans – Should Pick: Elijah Moore WR Mississippi

It was a real toss-up for me here between WR and CB. I like Greg Newsome quite a bit but I think Moore can do more for the Titans than a CB. He will be a very nice complement to AJ Brown.

 

Will Pick: Asante Samuel Jr. CB Florida State

Samuel has all the skills that Adoree Jackson had but is more refined and feistier. He is too much of a difference maker to pass up at this point. He is up there with one of my favorite players in the draft.

 

23.  Jets– Should Pick: Carlos Basham Jr. Edge Wake Forest

Basham not only has one of the best names ever for a Defensive End but he is a really good pass-rusher too! His issues are not linked with effort but lack of coaching. He is one of those lineman that will play 15 pounds heavier than he actually is without that loss of quickness. He is such a great fit for a Saleh defense.

 

Will Pick: Jaelan Phillips Edge Miami

I have a feeling that the Jets use their second pick on a pass-rusher with potential. Originally, I had teammate Rousseau here but after he exploded at his pro day in conjunction with his excellent Senior year it increased his value enough to overlook the potential medical risk. Still, you have to think that he is only a concussion or two away from having to call it again.

 

24.  Steelers– Should Pick: Greg Newsome II CB Northwestern

The Steelers are in need of a CB and not only is Newsome the best one on the board here but there is something so Steelers about him. It is unbelievable that there are this many quality cornerbacks in this draft and Newsome is just a hair behind my top four.

 

Will Pick: Same - Steelers are a little unpredictable in the first round going from no-brainers to brain scratching reaches so it is always hard to tell but this pick makes a lot of sense for them.

 

25.  Jaguars– Should Pick: Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota

It is tempting to take one of the Offensive Tackles here. However, the Jaguars are in a unique position to play the, “will this guys be available at 33” and likely a guy such as Alex Leatherwood (I think he is an excellent fit for the Jaguars) is going to be there at that point. Bateman will be gone. The Jaguars have plenty of deep threats but they need a reliable hands and route guy like Bateman to help their new investment.

 

Will Pick: Teven Jenkins OT Oklahoma State

It would be hard to argue this pick here. Cam Robinson is just okay and may be gone after this season. Jenkins can man the right side for his rookie year and fight to become the new Left Tackle next season. Not a bad pick but it might make more sense to go with a skills position here.

 

26.  Browns– Should Pick: Jayson Oweh Edge Penn State

I am having trouble even believing myself here but Oweh needs to go to a situation like this. There is plenty of okay depth at DE on the Browns opposite Myles Garrett to where you can use Oweh as a pin his ears back pass-rusher his first few seasons while coaches hone in on his talent and if Garrett wants to chip in he can too. Still, this is a major boom or bust but you have to take your shots sometimes.

 

Will Pick: Christian Barmore DT Alabama

The Browns are going to look at Barmore and think that he is too good to pass up at this point. Sure, Barmore has his moments but he also lacks consistency. Guys like this come through every year and most cannot make it. I would not be a fan of this pick.

 

27.  Ravens– Should Pick: Azeez Ojulari Edge Georgia

The Ravens need to restock the pass-rusher cabinet and the right WR (Rashod Bateman) has been taken. Ojulari is on the light side for a pass rusher and only has one season under his belt so that is why he has fallen to the bottom of the first. With that said, he is probably too productive to pass on at this point.

 

Will Pick: Same – Even with Bateman available here Ojulari is the more needed position here and a complimentary possession receiver should be available later.

 

28.  Saints– Should Pick: Kadarius Toney WR

It is tempting to go with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah here but I am still not sure if he has a true position. Toney is certainly raw but he has all the tools and he should be able to put it all together with a bit more coaching and having a teammate like Michael Thomas.

 

Will Pick: Elijah Moore WR Mississippi

This is probably a pick your flavor type of choice here but I think that the Saints will go with the more refined player in Moore over Toney, but both have a lot of upside and are dynamic.  

 

29.  Packers– Should Pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame

Again, I am not sure what you really do with him because his position is one that does not really exist. There is no way he falls this far in reality but with him on the board and Collins being gone, you go with a coverage guy that the Packers are lacking.

 

Will Pick: Zaven Collins LB Tulsa

Maybe I am just dreaming but I really can see the board falling this way and if it does, the Packers have shown interest (they interviewed him at least), he plays a position of need, and his upside is immense. He needs to work on things and perhaps even fill out his frame a bit more, but the poor man’s Urlacher comparison does not seem off to me.

 

30.  Bills– Should Pick: Gregory Rousseau Edge Miami

Rousseau is such a strange prospect because his production did not come from the edge but on the inside. He is way too light to play inside in the NFL. I really like his upside and he looks like he could throw another 20 lbs on his frame but may not even need to. A lot of boom or bust here but if he can get his outside pass-rush moves developed, he is an absolute steal. I think this may be very similar to when Jason Pierre-Paul came out. I am not saying he will be JPP but it is a similar situation.

 

Will Pick: Carlos Basham Jr. Edge Wake Forest

Basham is going to fit the Bills like a glove. He has power, quickness, and tenacity. The Bills need a good pass-rusher in the wings and Basham will be a consistent thorn in opponent’s sides.

 

31.  Chiefs– Should Pick: Samuel Cosmi OT Texas

The Chiefs have pretty much painted themselves into a corner with the head scratching moves of cutting both starting tackles to give tackle money to a guard? So they need to reload with talented Offensive Tackles. Cosmi has been rising recently and all the tools are there. He has some sloppy moments but most of those seem correctible with a good line coach. I am not sure that he is ever going to be great but the Chiefs unfortunately need to reach slightly here because they need help at OT.

 

Will Pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker OT USC

Vera-Tucker is the best one here. As outlined before, I am a fan of his and think he is going to be very good in the NFL, so nice pick here.

 

32.  Buccaneers– Should Pick: Alim McNeill DT North Carolina State

The Buccaneers could use a young DT so bringing in a guy like McNeill who can rotate in as a rookie and learn the ropes is an absolutely perfect pick here. I really like McNeill a lot because he is a big guy that is still very athletic.

 

Will Pick: Kyle Trask QB Florida

I thought long and hard on this pick and Licht’s drafts have been really hit or miss. Logic would match McNeill up with the Buccaneers perfectly but I have a feeling that they are going to try to grab a guy here to be Brady’s caddie for a year and then take over. Trask needs a lot of refinement and the tools are there but I am not a believer in him personally.

 

So, I clearly left out a few guys that I do not have as high of an opinion on in my Should Pick scenario. I am aiming for at least one more fun filled Mock Draft with trades before the famous Andre Duarte Live Mock Draft. I will also do my usual Packer Picks and Bear Picks and any requests. Thank you for reading!