Post Free Agency Frenzy Mock Draft!

After a crazy first week of Free Agency the scope has changed a bit.  We had some insane money go to above average players and some shrewd moves too. I do not know how the Jaguars can warrant paying Malik Jackson all of that money and I am scratching my head at paying Chase Daniels and Sam Bradford a combined $25 Million dollars.  The Eagles spent the week freeing up cap space and then ate up a bunch of it so I am perplexed.  The Texans should be commended for taking two players at essentially the going rate for a good player at both positions in signing Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. 

For Mock Draft 3.0 I am sticking with the dual scenario of who I think they Will Pick and who I think they Should Pick. 

1.       Tennessee Titans – Will pick: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  I am still maintaining that this will and should be the pick here.  As per last week’s notes, a lot of thought out there is that the Titans will go with offense but there are times when you need to look at an elite talent that can play either the 3-4 End position (more likely) or 3-4 LB.  Bosa will give it all on every play and should be a difference maker. I know he did not test as well with the 40 at the combine but we all know that it is an overrated drill.  The only thing it changes is that he is likely to be more of a DE than OLB.    

2.       Cleveland Browns – Will Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  Should Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  No change from last week.  However, with the way that things have gone in Cleveland last week, the Browns need to find somebody willing to trade up if possible.  They had a lot of holes, did not fill any of the holes, and lost a lot of players they needed to keep.  If nobody is willing to trade they go with Goff.  As per last week’s notes, I like Goff a little better now, but there is something in Goff’s game tape that bothers me about the way he throws the ball.  He just does not seem as far ahead as Wentz to me. Again, Wentz is high character, has shown that taking a step up in competition does not affect his play, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder which is important with a QB. I really like the way that he handles himself and he will be a good fit for the Browns.  I am starting to think of him as the anti-Manziel.  You know, talented and confident not cocky and questionable talent.  I also think it would not hurt to bring in a second QB later in the draft just in case whoever they pick falters and they need an alternative (the Gus Frerotte move).

3.       San Diego Chargers – Will Pick: OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  With the Chargers signing Casey Hayward (it happened literally as I was typing this up), it solidifies my thoughts on this pick. As per my previous notes, Tunsil is not Orlando Pace but I like his temperament on the field a lot.  If you watch some of his tape, you notice a guy that is looking for first his assignment and then for who is next.  I like a guy like that and so will his teammates.  When round 2 rolls around they should have their pick of safeties.  Again, the bottom line is that King Dunlap has always been inconsistent and should never have been given a second contract. Tunsil will help immediately and for the long haul.

4.       Dallas Cowboys – Will Pick: LB Myles Jack UCLA. Should Pick: CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State.  I am maintaining that the Cowboys take Myles Jack here.  I looked further into Myles Jack and I saw a few more splash plays but I still do not see the player that everybody is talking about.  I am also starting to think he may be a better RB prospect than LB prospect.  I just really feel that the Cowboys are going to take him even with bringing back McClain—he just seems like a Jerry Jones kind of player.  With that said, I think Jalen Ramsey is the best player available here and it would be an upgrade over anybody on the team including last year’s first round pick, Byron Jones.  Again, he reminds me a bit of Charles Tillman but with a lot more athletic ability and has some Darrelle Revis in him.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars - Will Pick: DB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State. Should Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Florida.  Since Ramsey is there in the “Will Pick” scenario, the Jaguars grab him here and it helps to solidify their defense.  Since he is gone in the “Should Pick” scenario, Hargreaves is not a bad consolation prize and in many years would be the top CB, he just does not have the size or quite the power of Ramsey.  Either way, it is a nice pick here.  Again, I see some Chris McCalister in him.

 

6.       Baltimore Ravens – Will Pick: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon.  Should Pick: Same. There is no change since last week.  Buckner is the right pick for the Ravens. Even with Spence available at this point, Buckner fits what the Ravens need a bit more. Buckner has a high ceiling and has shown that he can be that rare powerful 3-4 end with length.

7.       San Francisco 49ers – Will Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Should Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State.  I know there is a lot of thought here about taking a QB.  It is really going to be up to Kelly to convince Baalke that he can use the QBs they have and grab somebody he can mold later.  With that said, I am maintaining both picks from last week.  As per last week’s notes, I am having a hard time not putting Conklin ahead of Stanley.  I think there is such a huge gap between Tunsil and these two but after this there are a lot of guys that are pretty similar.  I give Conklin the edge because I see a better player who is more refined. 

8.       Philadelphia Eagles (From Dolphins) – Will Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State.  Should Pick: Same.  If the Eagles had not invested so much in QB already I would say that this is a slam dunk for taking a QB.  I think that the trade up to this slot is more about freeing up some cash and securing the player that they wanted in this draft.  Running Back has strangely been a bit devalued in the draft due to some busts.  However, it really should not be and this will be the resurgence of that.  I do believe that Elliot is the best looking RB prospect (last year Gurly was a gamble due to injury) to come out in the last few years.

9.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky. Should pick: Same.  The draft falls the way that the Buccaneers needed it to in both scenarios.  Spence has fallen a little bit due to some disappointment at the Combine.  However, Spence has elite talent and unlike some of the guys that get in trouble.  He has shown that he is willing to get help and change his ways.  The Buccaneers have been struggling to find a solid pass rush for a number of years.  Pairing Spence with a line that features Gerald McCoy will make both players better.

10.   New York Giants – Will Pick: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama.  Should Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  With the upgrades that the Giants have made at pass-rusher, they will shift their focus over to LB, which they need to address as well.  Ragland is not going to bring some of the things that Beason brought the last few years but he should still bring leadership and swagger to the team.  Again, I think it would be smart to grab a QB of the future here since they will not have an opportunity like this one.  As per what was stated last week, everybody revels at transitions like Favre to Rodgers or what we thought we would see with Manning to Osweiler.  But in those cases, especially the former, it takes foresight.  Taking one of the top two now and having a good QB for another 10 years or more will look genius.  Plus when his next contract comes up, you can get him back for a good rate since he has not totally shown his value yet and you give him time to develop mentally and physically.

11.   Chicago Bears – Will Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves III, Flordia.  Should Pick: DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss. The Bears have brought in two MLBs in the first week of free agency.  They can now shift their focus elsewhere.  In the “Will Pick” Scenario Hargreaves is there and would further support their defense.  In the “Should Pick” scenario Hargreaves is not there.  This is an interesting scenario because the Bears could also use an OT.  However, Nkemdiche might be a perfect 3-4 DE and nickel and dime rusher and is too good to pass up at this point.

12.   New Orleans Saints – Will Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole MIss.  Should Pick: Same.  In looking through the Saint’s roster, it seems like they need to help out their gaining QB more than anything.  While I do not think Treadwell is the best WR in this draft, he is the best compliment to Cook and what they need at this point in the draft.

13.   Miami Dolphins (From Eagles) – Will Pick:  CB Eli Apple, Ohio State. Should Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Even with the addition of Maxwell the Dolphins will still try to address CB.  The issue is that Apple is not the answer. I am having a hard time seeing him as an elite player, he looks more like a player with potential who needs to learn a bit still.  With how hurt Brandon Albert has been during his career, though he did start 14 games last year, it might not be a bad idea to load up with Stanley here and play him at guard until he is ready to shift over to OT.

14.   Oakland Raiders – Will Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. Should Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  As was the case last week, in the “Will Pick” scenario Conklin is the perfect pick for them.  He is a grinder that reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga.  In the “should pick” scenario however, Conklin is gone and so is Stanley.  Given that they have brought in Bruce Irving it is going to be interesting to see what their focus will be here.  In the “Should Pick” scenario there are a few good players for the Raiders, any of the top three DL available here, though I like Sheldon Rankins the best here, Reggie Ragland, though Heeney is better than advertised, taking a WR here since Crabtree has always been temperamental, or addressing the Offensive Line.  In the end, Taylor Decker is the best OL left so they go that route.

15.   Los Angeles Rams – Will Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  Should Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State. There is no change from last week.  It sounds like the Rams will be in this type of scenario and it is perfect for them.  In the “will pick” scenario Wentz is there for the taking and would be a steal.  In the “should pick” scenario, Wentz being gone at this point, Cook is there and this is really where he should go.  I know that the combine caused a few concerns with Cook but I think he is the real deal.  Either way, this pick is an absolute slam dunk touchdown goal! I really just do not see it with Paxton Lynch.  I am at a bit of a loss as to why Cook is not rated higher.

16.   Detroit Lions – Will Pick: DT Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss. Should pick: Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  With the retirement of Calvin Johnson, WR seems like a priority even with the signing of Marvin Jones.  The Lions resigned Haloti Ngata but he is really getting up there in years.  With the quality of DT here it is going to be tough to pass them up, even with some good DE there, DT makes the most sense.  Nkemdiche is the top DT prospect and would fit really well next to Ngata.  In the “Should Pick” scenario, Nkemdiche is gone.  Jarran Reed, A’shawn Robinson, and Sheldon Rankins are all in group 2 of the DTs with Nkemdiche being in group 1 talent wise.  It really scares me when two players from the same school at the same position who play literally next to each other are top prospects.  Both will probably be good but there is always a risk.  Reed is probably the safer of the two and the better player depending on who you ask.  With Rankins though, you are getting a very quick player who is a better pass rusher than run stopper but he is pretty good in both areas.  I just see Rankins as the better player here because he is more dynamic than the other two.

17.   Atlanta Falcons – Will Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  Should draft: Same.  I was very confused by the signing of Mohammed Sanu, he is a possession receiver that drops the ball?  With that signing it shifts the Falcons needs as well.  While it may be odd to bring in two players from the school at the same position two years in a row, Clemson did sport a pretty fantastic pass rush this year.  Kevin Dodd is slowly getting moved ahead of Lawson, but there is a reason as to why Lawson was considered the better player pre-combine, therefore, Lawson should be the pick.

18.   Indianapolis Colts – Will Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  Should Take: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama .  The Colts need to keep rebuilding their offensive line and Decker being available here is a gift.  While there are plenty of DL that could really help them, they will have a shot at somebody there later.  In the “Should Pick” scenario, Decker is gone and Ragland would be too good to pass up at a position that is getting a little old and could use some juice like Ragland.

19.   Buffalo Bills – Will Take: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State.  Should Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Pass-rushing is something that Rex Ryan loves.  As per what I stated last week, Ogbah is not going to be good in the NFL, he is one trick pony that looks to stop when the action is going the other way.  Kyle Williams has been an overachiever for a long time but he is getting a little long in the tooth.  With some may top notch DL available at this point the Bills should take the best one available.  In the “Should Take Scenario” Rankins is gone so Reed is the most versatile in that he can play 3-4 end, Nose, or nickel/dime lineman. 

20.   New York Jets – Will Take: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia.  Should Take: Same. No change from last week and if anything, their free agent moves should solidify this pick, unless of course they do in fact lose Fitzpatrick, then they would have to reach for a QB here.  Floyd needs to fill out his frame and comes with a lot of risk in that he is spindly and comes from a program where OLBs have been very hit or miss.  However, the Jets are a team that has big men to cover up for Floyd and protect him while he gets better and bigger.  If Floyd is to go to any team, this is the one team that seems to be a great fit for him and his current skill set.

21.   Washington Redskins – Will Take: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Should Take: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama. With their defensive line needing a boost and with a lot of the top players gone, Reed is the best pick here in the “Will Take” Scenario.  In the “Should Take” Reed is gone, Robinson makes sense here.  With that said, there should be serious consideration for either WR Corey Coleman at this point.  The Redskins have some WRs that are role players or average at this point.  Jackson is dynamic sometimes but how long is he going to last?    

22.   Houston Texans – Will Take: WR, Corey Coleman, Baylor.  Should Take: WR Josh Doctson, TCU.  No team may have helped themselves more than the Texans in Free Agency.  With that said, they could use some help on the OL.  Cody Whitehair is a consideration, but why not give that new QB some weapons?  Coleman and Doctson are both very good players—Coleman has better long speed and Doctson is a little savvier.  I like Doctson because he plays with instincts and smarts so I would pick him over Coleman but either way it is a solid pick.

23.   Minnesota Vikings-Will Take: DE Kevin Dodd, Clemson.  Should Take: G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Much like last week, I think Zimmer is going to be staring at a pass rusher that he cannot pass up but this time it is Dodd.  The defense is stacked for the most part so I am not sure if that is a necessity or a luxury at this point.  They should also consider Vonn Bell here but even with the addition of Alex Boone, I am looking at the interior of their offensive line and thinking, why not grab your flavor of the top 2 guards and be done with it? It is not clear as to if they are going to use Boone at guard or Tackle but why not strengthen the line as a whole?  Guards are never a sexy pick but interior pressure for a mildly mobile QB is always tough so solidifying the position here is a great idea.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Will Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU. Should Pick: WR Corey Coleman, Baylor.  The Bengals are moving on without Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu so they need to replenish at WR.  With Doctson available here in the “Will Pick” scenario they go that direction.  Since he is gone in the “Should Pick” scenario they go with the next best WR in Coleman.

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Will Take: CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson. Should Take: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State. No change from last week.  As per last week’s notes, I really wanted to see the player that Alexander thinks he is on the field.  I even put aside the fact that he was from Clemson and a DB.  I just do not see the player that others are talking about on film.  He seems lazy in his zones and lacks instincts.  Part of me thinks that it may be a little high for him, but he is the best safety of this type in the draft, so go for it.  Bell is not big or intimidating but if you watch him on tape, he sees the play and reads it very well.  He reminds me a bit of Earl Thomas when he came out of Texas but not as refined, but perhaps a very similar potential.

26.   Seattle Seahawks – Will Take: DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama.  Should Take: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana. In the “Will Take” scenario, Robinson is too good to pass up at a position of need.  However, the smarter pick is to finally get protection for Wilson and the well will dry up by round 2 with the run on OTs. Spriggs is not dynamite but he is the best OT here and he is better than what they have at RT and possibly LT at this point.

27.   Green Bay Packers – Will Take: LB Darron Lee, Ohio State. Should Take: Same.  No change from last week.  I keep wondering if I am crazy in thinking he will be here. Though I really like some linebackers later in this draft, Nick Vigil in particular, if the draft falls this way Lee is the right pick.  Lee is still an odd ball to a degree but I think there is a great LB in there and he will solidify the dime package. The temptation to take a TE here is there but TEs can be found later in the draft.  Lee is of similar Nick Barnett when he came out of Oregon, but a better athlete and he fits the Will Linebacker position so he can be there during Nickel and Dime defenses as well.

28.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will Take: CB Kendall Hunter, Virginia Tech. Should Take: Same.  A wide receiver would be nice here but the next best WR would be a gamble here.  Instead they go with the third best cornerback in Kendall Hunter.  I really like Hunter’s temperament on the field and I think he plays smart.  He is coming off an injury that is minor but he would be an excellent replacement for the loss of Sean Smith.

29.   Arizona Cardinals – Will Take: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  Should Take: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  The Cardinals need some youth on their DL as well as a CB.  With the top CBs gone and a player in Rankins that is too good to pass up at this point, it is an easy pick.  However, in the “Should Pick” scenario, Rankins is not there.  With that said, the Cardinals have taken chances on players in the past and Billings just needs a little motivation.  With their current needs, Billings is a solid pick.

30.   Carolina Panthers – Will Take: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana.  Should Take: OL Vadal Alexander. No change from last week, as per last week’s notes, the Panthers rolled the dice and ended up losing in the end by going with suspect OTs last year.  With Spriggs sitting there in the “Will Take” scenario it is a no brainer.  However, in the “Should Take” scenario the next couple of OTs are not worth it.  However, Alexander played Tackle in college and may be a nice fit at RT for the Panthers.  Worst case scenario, they get better in the interior of the line which still helps them out a lot.

31.   Denver Broncos –Will Take: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis.  Should Take: Same.  The Broncos had a really bad week to say the least.  However, they did bring in Mark Sanchez for next to nothing to hold down the fort.  Sanchez can manage the game for the time being.  With all the praise Elway received for the last few years, it looks like he really botched the Osweiler deal.  Due to this, it is cause for a little bit of panic and grabbing a QB that may be nothing more than a decent starter.  I still do not believe that Lynch is better than Cook, but he is not there in the “Should Take” scenario.  I also think there are QBs that have just as much potential later but by the end of the second they may not be there.  Therefore, this is the pick that the Broncos should make.

32.   The Patriots lost their 1^st round pick due to deflategate.

Thank you for reading this week!

Post-Combine/Cusp of Free Agency frenzy Mock Draft

After the Combine, a few things have come out with some players and some guys that I am moving up or down.  Teams are already agreeing in principle to some pretty dumb things too! This mock draft will feature who I think they will pick and who I think they should pick. The medical news about Jaylen Smith changes things.  You have to feel really bad for him.  Some of my notes will be the same or similar to last posting but there are some additions as well.

1.       Tennessee Titans – Will pick: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  A lot of thought out there is that the Titans will go with offense but there are times when you need to look at an elite talent that can play either the 3-4 End position (more likely) or 3-4 LB.  Bosa will give it all on every play and should be a difference maker. I know he did not test as well with the 40 at the combine but we all know that it is an overrated drill.  The only thing it changes is that he is likely to be more of a DE than OLB.    

2.       Cleveland Browns – Will Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  Should Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State . Even with Goff looking impressive at the combine, I still put Wentz ahead of him.  I like Goff a little better now, but there is something in Goff’s game tape that bothers me about the way he throws the ball.  He just does not seem as far ahead as Wentz to me. Again, Wentz is high character, has shown that taking a step up in competition does not affect his play, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder which is important with a QB. I really like the way that he handles himself and he will be a good fit for the Browns.  I am starting to think of him as the anti-Manziel.  You know, talented and confident not cocky and questionable talent.

3.       San Diego Chargers – Will Pick: OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi. Should Pick: Same.  I keep thinking about this one but if the draft fell this way, they need the top offensive lineman more than a DB and the gap between the top OT and the second OT seems large to me.  Tunsil is not Orlando Pace but I like his temperament on the field a lot.  If you watch some of his tape, you notice a guy that is looking for first his assignment and then for who is next.  I like a guy like that and so will his teammates.  When round 2 rolls around they should have their pick of safeties.  Weddle seems to be all but gone and Jalen Ramsey could be really interesting here but I just do not see them going that route.  Again, the bottom line is that King Dunlap has always been inconsistent and should never have been given a second contract.  Tunsil will help immediately and for the long haul.

4.       Dallas Cowboys – Will Pick: Myles Jack LB UCLA. Should Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky.  I keep watching tape on Jack and I do not see what everybody is talking about.  He is a great athlete and he has swagger, but I don’t see the command or taking over the games.  Maybe I am watching the wrong games?  Spence did not test as well as expected at the Combine and Jack tested better than expected at this point and looks to be able to recover.  As per what I said last week, the Cowboys were burned bad last year by taking Randy Gregory (though not that bad) so why take another pass rusher who has had a troubled past?  Spence is an elite talent, he has stayed out of trouble, and wants to keep it that way.  Gregory is either addicted to drugs, immaturity, or ignorance or a combination of all three?  How else can you explain somebody that cannot cut out the stuff long enough for a one year NFL career?  Spence has improved and Gregory kept getting in trouble so those were two different situations and Spence is the right player here. I know he did not test the way they would have liked at the combine but his tape is too good to pass up at this point. I see a much higher ceiling with Spence and I think he is going in the right direction now. There should be a lot of thought here for Jalen Ramsey as well, but typically it is the pass rush that makes the secondary better and it is harder to find a top pass rusher.  CB can come in round 2.

5.       Jacksonville Jaguars - Will Pick: DB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State. Should Pick: Same.  I am not sure if Ramsey is really that much like Charles Woodson.  He reminds me a bit of Charles Tillman but with a lot more athletic ability and has some Darrelle Revis in him. The Jaguars are riddled with okay but not great talent at both CB and S.  At this point, it would be a mistake to pass up on an elite talent like Ramsey.

 

6.       Baltimore Ravens – Will Pick: DE DeForest Buckner, Oregon.  Should Pick: Same. Even with Spence available at this point (in the will pick category), Buckner fits what the Ravens need a bit more. Buckner has a high ceiling and has shown that he can be that rare powerful 3-4 end with length.

7.       San Francisco 49ers – Will Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. Should Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State.  I am having a hard time not putting Conklin ahead of Stanley.  I think there is such a huge gap between Tunsil and these two but after this there are a lot of guys that are pretty similar.  I give Conklin the edge because I see a better player who is more refined.  Think of it this way, the Cowboys gambled on Tyron Smith and won, but it was still a gamble.  I did not think Smith was worth the gamble at the time and was wrong but how many times do you really want to gamble this high in the draft?  This is an unfortunate desperation move but the 49ers need to fix their depleted OL. With Kaepernick currently being the cocky person that he is and refusing to play, this seems like a good time to grab a QB.  However, Kelly can find the right QB for him later in the draft since he relies on a skill set that is not quite as coveted by other teams.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Will Pick: CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida. Should Pick: Same. Even with the addition of Maxwell the Dolphins need some good young talent at CB and Hargreaves is a good fit.  There is a major gap in talent between the top two CBs in this draft and the next tier.  They could still get a talented guy in round 2 but Hargreaves might have the chance to be elite and the others available will only be good.  He reminds me a bit of Chris McAlister.

9.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Pick: DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky. Should Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  If things fall the way that they do here, Spence is not available in the “should pick” category so Lawson is the next man up.  As per what I stated last week I am rarely a fan of Clemson defensive players in the first round, history shows that they have not worked out too well for the last 25 years or so.  With that said, the Buccaneers need some pass rush from the ends and Lawson strings moves together to be as relentless as possible. There is certainly some thought on Emmanuel Ogbah, but from what I saw of him, his motor seems questionable.  I want to see a guy that plays through every play and plays for the play not the sack. Ogbah just reminds me too much of Jamal Reynolds.

10.   New York Giants – Will Pick: DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss.  Should Pick: QB Jared Goff, Cal.  It is hard to argue against Nkemdiche being the right pick here.  In the Will Pick Scenario Goff is gone but Wentz is there so that would also be a good pick.  But why a QB when you have Eli Manning?  In all fairness Manning just had an off 2013 but I still think he is a time bomb, but he is the QB for a few more years.  The Giants will likely not have a shot at a potential top tier QB for a while so why not bite the bullet now and take one.  Everybody revels at transitions like Favre to Rodgers or what we may see with Manning to Osweiler.  But in those cases, especially the former, it takes foresight.  Taking one of the top two now and having a good QB for another 10 years or more will look genius.  Plus when his next contract comes up, you can get him back for a good rate since he has not totally shown his value yet and you give him time to develop mentally and physically. With that said, Nkemdiche would also be an excellent pick for the Giants.

11.   Chicago Bears – Will Pick: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama.  Should Pick: Same. The Bears need some swagger at the middle linebacker position and Ragland makes too much sense to pass up at this point.  He will never be the coverage type and that is not easy to find but he will be a great leader.

12.   New Orleans Saints – Will Pick: CB Eli Apple, Ohio State.  Should Pick: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech. The last mock draft I was a little goofy with my Saints pick.  I still think bringing in Ezekiel Elliot would be smart but the Saints really need a CB worse.  I am not buying into Eli Apple, but there are a lot of people out there that like him.  I would be tempted to take a chance on a few players here but Fuller is my #3 CB in this draft.  He is coming off of injury but he should be fine.  I just do not see it with Apple and Mackensie Alexander. 

13.   Philadelphia Eagles – Will Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  Should Pick:  DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss.  At this point, Nkemdiche is too talented to pass up in the “should pick” scenario.  It would be hard to argue the Decker pick as they need to rid themselves of the overly cocky Jason Peters and get a good young tackle.  It is a flip of the coin as to if you would pick Decker at RT or LT with Lane Johnson on the team but he should fit either one.  Again though, I like Jack Conklin better.

14.   Oakland Raiders – Will Pick: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State. Should Pick: OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame.  In the will pick scenario Conklin is the perfect pick for them.  He is a grinder that reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga.  In the “should pick” scenario however, Conklin is gone.  This was a tough call for me because I really also like Sheldon Rankins for the Raiders but with the hybrid scene that they run, it is a little harder to project him here.  Still, it was a battle for me because Rankins could really solidify the pass rush with Mack and Edwards also on the field with him.  In the end though, the Raiders need to take a chance on a top OL and Stanley gets the slight edge here over Decker.

15.   Los Angeles Rams – Will Pick: QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State.  Should Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State. It sounds like the Rams will be in this type of scenario and it is perfect for them.  In the “will pick” scenario Wentz is there for the taking and would be a steal.  In the “should pick” scenario, Wentz being gone at this point, Cook is there and this is really where he should go.  I know that the combine caused a few concerns with Cook at the combine but I think he is the real deal.  Either way, this pick is an absolute slam dunk touchdown goal!

16.   Detroit Lions – Will Pick: DT Jarran Reed DT, Alabama. Should Pick: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  The Lions need to rebuild their defensive line and there are some very good DL this year and any way you slice it, even if Calvin Johnson retires, the Lions have to look at DL here.  Jarran Reed, A’shawn Robinson, and Sheldon Rankins are all in group 2 of the DTs with Nkemdiche being in group 1 talent wise.  It really scares me when two players from the same school at the same position who play literally next to each other are top prospects.  Both will probably be good but there is always a risk.  Reed is probably the safer of the two and the better player depending on who you ask.  With Rankins though, you are getting a very quick player who is a better pass rusher than run stopper but he is pretty good in both areas.  I just see Rankins as the better player here because he is more dynamic than the other two.

17.   Atlanta Falcons – Will Pick: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State.  Should Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU.  I had a very hard time figuring out who they may take here.  I think that Quinn might want to add even more juice to the pass rush.  However, I think that is a mistake both in concept and in player in this case.  Ogbah is a one trick pony with a questionable motor.  On the other hand, the first round is a time to grab a difference maker.  With the release of Roddy White and the players that are in this draft I think that it would be very astute to grab a WR here.  I like Corey Coleman but the more I watch Doctson, the more I think he might be the best WR in this draft.  He lacks some of the physical tools that Coleman and Laquon Treadwell have, but his instincts, hands, and quickness put him ahead of them. 

18.   Indianapolis Colts – Will Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State.  Should Pick: Same .  The Colts will have a shot at a top tier talent.  I know in my last post I said this is not the right spot but looking at the players in this draft and how inserting a top RB could change their offense, it is too tempting.  Elliot has all the running talent and the instincts you want in a RB.  Remember, the Colts were desperate enough to trade away for Trent Richardson a few years ago.  Elliot is a far superior talent to Richardson when he came out and was drafted at the top of the draft.

19.   Buffalo Bills – Will Pick: DL Sheldon Rankins, Louisville.  Should Pick: DT Jarran Reed, Alabama.  Kyle Williams has been an overachiever for a long time but he is getting a little long in the tooth.  With some may top notch DL available at this point the Bills should and will take the best one available.  In the “Should Take Scenario” Rankins is gone so Reed is the most versatile in that he can play 3-4 end, Nose, or nickel/dime lineman. 

20.   New York Jets – Will Pick: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia.  Should Pick: Same. While I think the Jets should throw that curveball here and take a QB, nobody that is worthwhile is there.  Floyd needs to fill out his frame and comes with a lot of risk in that he is spindly and comes from a program where OLBs have been very hit or miss.  However, the Jets are a team that has big men to cover up for Floyd and protect him while he gets better and bigger.  If Floyd is to go to any team, this is the one team that seems to be a great fit for him and his current skill set.

21.   Washington Redskins – Will Pick: A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama.  Should Pick: Same. With their defensive line needing a boost and with a lot of the top players gone, Robinson makes the most sense in both scenarios.  With that said, there should be serious consideration for either WRs Laquon Treadwell or Corey Coleman at this point.  The Redskins have some WRs that are role players or average at this point.  Jackson is dynamic sometimes but how long is he going to last?    

22.   Houston Texans – Will Pick: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis.  Should Pick: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State.  The Texans will be jumping for joy to get Lynch here, but I really do not think they should be.  I have never been a big fan of Flacco and Lynch seems like a less refined version of him.  He could be a nice QB but he is not a game changer.  I also have some suspicions that they will reach for RB Derrick Henry here.  Again, a nice player but he is really not worth this slot and has a degree of risk.  With that said they need an OT with Duane Brown getting up there in age and to fill in the other side.  When round 2 rolls around, the QB needy teams are going to have taken their guy so they may have a shot in round 2 at Lynch or even better Dak Prescott (maybe even the third for him who knows) whom I like better than Lynch.

23.   Minnesota Vikings-Will Pick: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson.  Should Pick: G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Zimmer is going to be staring at a pass rusher that he cannot pass up in Lawson.  The defense is stacked for the most part so I am not sure if that is a necessity or a luxury at this point.  I am looking at their interior of their offensive line and thinking, why not grab your flavor of the top 2 guards and be done with it?  Guards are never a sexy pick but interior pressure for a mildly mobile QB is always tough so solidifying the position here is a great idea.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Will Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss. Should Pick: WR Corey Coleman, Baylor.  The Bengals are letting both Marvin Jones (It looks like free agency is going to overpay for him) and Mohammed Sanu walk it appears.  That mean that they have a gap to fill.  It sounds like they may be in need of some DBs as well but Treadwell and Coleman are far too dynamic and potential excellent compliments to AJ Green to let them slide past this slot.  I am not totally sold on Treadwell and I think Coleman has a higher upside so I would go with him over Treadwell.

25.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Will Pick: CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson. Should Pick: S Vonn Bell, Ohio State. I really wanted to see the player that Alexander thinks he is on the field.  I even put aside the fact that he was from Clemson and a DB.  I just do not see the player that others are talking about on film.  He seems lazy in his zones and lacks instincts.  Bell might be a little high here because he is more of a coverage type of guy but the Steelers need to add juice in all the Defensive Backfield.  Bell is not big or intimidating but if you watch him on tape, he sees the play and reads it very well.   

26.   Seattle Seahawks – Will Pick: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  Should Pick: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana. The Seahawks have never shied away from players with issues but that have a lot of talent.  Billings would be a nice fit for them.  However, the smarter pick is to finally get protection for Wilson and the well will dry up by round 2 with the run on OTs. Spriggs is not dynamite but he is the best OT here and he is better than what they have at RT and possibly LT at this point.

27.   Green Bay Packers – Will Pick: LB Darron Lee, Ohio State. Should Pick: Same.  Though I really like some linebackers later in this draft, if the draft falls this way Lee is the right pick.  Lee is still an odd ball to a degree but I think there is a great LB in there and he will solidify the dime package. The temptation to take a TE here is there but TEs can be found later in the draft.  Lee is of similar ilk to Nick Barnett but a better athlete and he fits the Will Linebacker position so he can be there during Nickel and Dime defenses as well.

28.   Kansas City Chiefs – Will Pick: WR Josh Doctson, TCU. Should Pick: WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss.  If Doctson is there, this is a slam dunk, as I have expressed already, I think he might be quietly the best WR in this draft.  The chiefs have been getting by with little to no talent at WR until last year and they still needed help so there should be little hesitation to take a target here.  With Doctson and Coleman being gone in the “Should Take” scenario they go with the next of the top tier WRs in Treadwell.   

29.   Arizona Cardinals – Will Pick: CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech.  Should Pick: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor.  The Cardinals need some youth on their DL as well as a CB.  Fuller would be a great pick here to play opposite Peterson. However, with Fuller gone in the “Should Take” scenario, Billings makes the most sense here.

30.   Carolina Panthers – Will Pick: OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana.  Should Pick: OL Vadal Alexander. The Panthers rolled the dice and ended up losing in the end by going with suspect OTs last year.  With Spriggs sitting there in the “Will Take” scenario it is a no brainer.  However, in the “Should Take” scenario the next couple of OTs up are not worth it.  However, Alexander played Tackle in college and may be a nice fit at RT for the Panthers.  Worst case scenario, they get better in the interior of the line which still helps them out a lot.

31.   Denver Broncos –Will Pick: OG Cody Whitehair, Kansas State.  Should Pick: TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas.  Should Take:  The Broncos are going to need to rebuild their offensive line a bit and Whitehair is a really nice fit.  Assuming they do in fact pay for Osweiler, they need to protect him as well as help him out a bit here.  Since Whitehair is not there in the “Should Take” scenario, Henry is the best all-around TE and compares favorably to last year’s top player Maxx Williams, if not a little bit better.  Either move will help them out.

32.   The Patriots lost their 1^st round pick due to deflategate.

So there you have it.  Free Agency in the next few weeks will change some of this so we will revisit as soon as things calm down a little.  On a final note, it is going to be interesting to see who takes a chance on Jaylon Smith.  He is the type of player that did not rely solely on physical gifts so the instincts should still be there.  He might end up being a very good player even with the nerve damage.