Saturday, March 25, 2017

Mock Draft One Month Out (a little more)

Despite adjusting to a new job and more or less working a full-time and two part-time jobs I must endure. So without further ado here is a one month out post-free agency frenzy mock draft. As always, I pick who I think they will pick and who they should pick. The rules here are no trades; teams have to stay at their spot.


1. Cleveland Browns – The Browns have done some smart things in Free Agency, particularly strengthening the OL to help protect a young QB. But QB is not going to be in the cards with their first pick…

Will Take: Myles Garrett DE Texas A&M. I like Myles Garrett a lot, I still hold that I think he is much better as a standup pass rusher. This makes me think that he might not fit the Browns system.

Should Take: Same. With that said, how do you pass up a top talent at a position of need. If it turns out that he is more of a stand up type, then move him there and take advantage of that.


2. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers have a weird situation since there is not a clear superstar QB and Lynch is really going to make his mark with a very tough decision at this spot.

Will Take: Mitch Trubisky QB North Carolina. I am more on the Trubisky train now than a month ago. But I still am not sure that he is the best QB in this draft. Kyle Shannahan seems to be able to handle gunslinger QBs. I just hope for his sake he does not get shell shocked. A cerebral QB understands the game and can break it down to a science. Gunslingers tend to go the other direction so this is a dangerous pick for this team.

Should Take: Ryan Ramczyk OT Wisconsin: Steer clear of a QB here as none of them are worth it. When you have a tough decision because you really do not have a worthy QB, find a way to take pressure off of them. If you asked the 49ers if they could use this pick to make Joe Staley a rookie, I am pretty sure they would. Ramczyk should have a similar career where he is solid but not dominant. A reach, but they need to at this point.


3. Chicago Bears – The best part about the Bears signing Mike Glennon is that it prevents them from doing something silly here. I am not sure that Glennon is an upgrade over what the Bears have had since they started the season with Kordell Stewart/Chris Chandler.

Will Take: Marshon Lattimore CB Ohio State - Top notch CBs change a defense a bit more than a safety would and the Bears greater need is CB so they go with Lattimore. If you watch tape of Humphrey what jumps out is his play awareness. It seems like he can read the offense really well and he goes in for the tackle when it is there.
Should Take: Jamal Adams S LSU – Lattimore is a top CB no doubt, the Bears need one of those, but there will be good CBs later and Lattimore is not Charles Woodson level. Jamal Adams is the bigger playmaker and can be the heart of this defense for a long time. It is tough call but when you have a need in both spots you go with the best player and Adams may turn out to be one of the best players in this draft.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars are major underachievers so the hope is that Marrone can coach up what they have. I stated in his draft class that Bortles looked like he was missing some velocity on his throws and I would take him. I looked wrong after his rookie year but he has not put it together since then. Regardless, he is a good enough QB that you try to build around him.

Will Take: Leonard Fournette RB LSU – Fournette’s upside is too great here. I know some like Dalvin Cook better but I do not see it. Fournette will relieve the pressure off of Bortles right away with both his running and pass blocking. RB is not their biggest need but they will not be foolish here.
Should Take: Same, but there might be some interesting consideration for OJ Howard here, I would not bat an eye if they decided to do that, a TE that can block and catch the way that Howard does is hard to find.


5. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams) – The Titans have a solid foundation for success but they lack a strong group of WR and need some help in the defensive backfield.

Will Take: OJ Howard TE Alabama. Call me crazy here but I have a weird feeling that the Titans are going to look at Howard and see a great security blanket and deep threat for Mariotta. I am not sure he is the right pick—I am not even sure he is the best TE in the draft. But I just have a weird feeling he will be a Titan. Howard has shown doubters in the All-Star Season that he is for real. He could team up with Walker for a nice 1-2 punch.

Should Take: Marshon Lattimore CB  Ohio State – Lattimore has such great awareness and is a very special player. The Titans could use some juice at WR but there are less questions marks with Lattimore.


6. New York Jets – Can you name one team besides the Jets that thought Christian Hackenberg was a top QB last year? Likely not (not even his college coach), so they may panic to try and fix that mistake. But there are other mistakes the probably need to be fixed first…or they may just make another mistake here…

Will Take: DeShone Kizer QB Notre Dame. This will mark the first major mistake by a team in this draft. Kizer is overhyped, when I saw that he declared early I went back, looked at his tape, and thought that he was a 4th rounder at best; way too raw.
Should Take: Malik Hooker S Ohio State – There is some risk here but assuming that Hooker is not worse for wear, he should be the player that the Jets should have drafted in 2014 when they went with Pryor over Clinton-Dix. They need help elsewhere but the upside is too great here.


7. Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers seem to love to sign bad LT instead of finding solid ones in the draft. That is unfortunate as there is a very good one sitting here in the Will take scenario.

Will Take:  Jamal Adams S LSU – The Chargers have other bigger needs but will be licking their chops with Adams. Look at last year, Bosa was not the biggest need but they took him because they realized he was too good. Adams is of the same ilk.

Should Take: Corey Davis WR Western Michigan – Davis is the best WR in this draft. Caliber of competition, route trees, and so forth are the question marks but he has shown a lot of production on a very slightly lower level and his tools are immense.


8. Carolina Panthers – Gettlemen is weird. I mean he just seems to always call it off the cuff. Somehow after getting embarrassed in the Super Bowl because of a lack of talent at OT he ignores the need again last year. Now, he is stuck with very average at best talent in this draft.

Will Take:  Dalvin Cook RB Florida State – I have a feeling they are going to want to use a 1-2 punch in their backfield. It makes sense but after watching Cook, I am not sure that he is truly as good as everybody is saying. He is taller and heavier but his build reminds me of Warrick Dunn, but Dunn played much bigger that Cook does. There may also be strong consideration for Solomon Thomas here.

Should Take: OT Garrett Bolles. Bolles needs some weight but should have no issue starting on this this OL while he gets bigger. He is probably not worthy of this spot right now, but again there is lack of depth and the Panthers need an OT bad.


9. Cincinnati Bengals

Will Take and Should Take: Jonathan Allen DL Alabama. Talking about Allen makes me sad because I think he is going to be considered a bust. Not because he is truly going to be a bust, but I will call it A.J. Hawk syndrome. If you watch Allen, he makes a lot of plays, but they are plays of opportunity over domination plays. So he plays smart, if a mistake is made in blocking he will make the play, but he is going to just be consistently good and not great. While the Bengals do not need a DL too bad, he is the best player to take here looking at their future. There is some thought here for Reuben Foster but look at the tape, he is just like Maualuga and they just cut ties with him.


10. Buffalo Bills - the Bills have some holes they need to fill but the run on OT is drying up the well and the Bills need to address that spot.

Will Take: Ryan Ramczyk OT Wisconsin - Just as I said about Jack Conklin last year, teams are going to be able to cut through the hype by draft day. Ramczyk will play RT to start and eventually move over to LT.

Should Take: Cam Robinson OT Alabama - Robinson is a RT in the NFL. He still does some sloppy things but he is a mauler type so it would work for the Bills who need a bit more juice on the OL. With that being said, Robinson seems to be a huge risk because of never coming close to his potential yet.


11. New Orleans Saints – The Saints have done what they can to get kind of bad over the years. I get realizing a year early that you cannot afford a player so you trade him off but with Brees’ age, it is win now time. They had some injuries on defense that really hurt them last year so CB might be able to wait.

Will Take: Solomon Thomas DE Stanford – The Saints really need to throw Brees a bone here and give him some weapons but they will forgo that and make the next big mistake of the draft. Solomon Thomas shows up on tape very briefly, so sure he has highlights but there are more low lights. Thomas may have a better chance on the Saints then a team wanting to move him to OLB so that helps him but I just do not see enough on tape to warrant taking him in the first round.

Should Take: OJ Howard TE Alabama – With Howard available here he is a steal. Even if he wasn’t the Saints could then grab Njoku who is worthy of this spot. But Howard is the more complete player. This will help the team immensely.


12. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia Eagles) – The Browns look ripe to take a QB here, but I really do not think that is in their plans. In fact, I would not be stunned if this pick gets traded for a pick next year. But sticking with the rules, I pick a player.

Will Take: Corey Davis WR Western Michigan – The Browns shake off the possible one season wonder of Terrell Pryor and manage to land the best WR in this draft. Maybe moneyball is working…

Should Take: Mike Williams WR Clemson – Is it interesting that he is a similar type of player with the same name as the former USC Trojan? I tried to not let that deter me here. Clemson players also tend to not be so hot in the NFL. But I think Williams will be good because he has some heart to him. This may be a situation just like Mike Evans making Manziel look better than he was.


13. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals pick here is going to be very telling as to if the feel Nkemdiche was a mistake. They really need him to fill the void left by Campbell.

Will Take: Taco Charlton DE Michigan – Charlton is a tweener but he has a big frame and he is just starting to show his potential. He will look much better as a hand in the dirt type of player once he adds some weight. I know they were burned last year, but Charlton’s short comings are not based on attitude.

Should Take: Mitch Trubisky QB North Carolina – Trubisky has shown some pretty impressive flashes, but he needs some time. This is an excellent match for the Cardinals Trubisky as he learns under Grandpa Carson.


14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota Vikings) – The Eagles robbed the Vikings last year, good for them. Now they have a first round pick again and a chance to fill some of those roster needs.

Will Take: Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford – I do not know what to do with McCaffrey but I do not believe that he is a workhorse RB. But I have a feeling the Eagles will take him here. McCaffrey will add something to the offense and will give it his all, I am just not sure if he will be great.

Should Take: Sidney Jones CB Washington – I am a little torn on Jones, he has good awareness for the most part and he sticks to WR well. But he just seems to get pushed around a bit. Still, better to be pushed around than beat all the time and some of the other CBs here are those types.


15. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts might finally be getting better with some successful OL drafting last year. There are still some holes, but they can at least look to address a few other spots if need be.

Will Take: Reuben Foster LB Alabama – Put on the tape of Foster and what do you get? A very aggressive LB who is good at cutting through blockers but misses some plays. From a highlight real, he looks great but Zach Cunningham has some of those same traits minus missing the plays, look at the tape, Cunningham is a better player with more attention on him.

Should Take: Takkarist McKinley OLB UCLA – I watched the Stanford game and McKinley was almost non-existent for most of the game, but every other game I saw, he was intense and made plays. There are some other pass rushers who had better stats but McKinley is the better all-around player.


16. Baltimore Ravens – Despite the fact that everybody seems to love Ozzy Newsome on draft day, he is human and does miss sometimes. They are a bit old in some spots and a few first round picks have not really worked out too well for them.

Will Take: John Ross WR Washington – Joe Flacco is an average strong armed QB that needs somebody to mad bomb it to for the Ravens to get a return on their shoddy investment of Flacco.

Should Take: Haason Reddick LB Temple – Ross would be a nice fit here but Reddick could fill the need at either OLB or ILB for the Ravens and they will likely need a guy in both spots. Reddick is a high energy player who gives it his all. There is some bust potential here but it is not because effort. Reddick will find a way to make a difference here.


17. Washington Redskins – There were some unfortunate injuries with young players last year but Doctson will bounce back at WR so no need to panic over the loss of DeSean Jackson (was he really that good anyways). The problem is that there are not a lot of top notch big DL and the Redskins could really use one. So they will need to address that later.

Will Take: Malik Hooker S Ohio State – Hooker is far too talented to fall past the Redskins. If they were not moving Cravens to SS already, Jabril Peppers might actually be the better pick for them here. But Hooker will help to bring the defense together. They need players at other spots but you do not pass up a potential game changer here.

Should Take: Christian McCaffrey RB Stanford – This is a much better spot for McCaffrey as he can line up in the backfield at times, then also split out. I am still not sure that he is a first round talent but he is fiery and wants to be the best. I take him over Cook here as he is more versatile.


18. Tennessee Titans – The Titans still have plenty of needs and will take full advantage of this bonus pick in either scenario.

Will Take: Sidney White CB Washington– Having not addressed CB with their first pick White makes sense here in this scenario. They need a CB and White is very aware and good and sticking to WR.

Should Take: John Ross WR Washington – So in both scenarios it is a Washington player somehow? They grabbed a CB with their first pick so no need to address that any longer. Ross is not for everybody and the Titans were burned with their last speedster WR (pun possibly intended) but you go with a guy that you think can help you and Ross can help them.


19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have an unfortunate situation with Doug Martin but still have a decent stable of RBs. There are a few areas of need on defense from there.

Will Take: Jabrill Peppers S Michigan – The Buccaneers safeties are not good. I am not sure where Peppers fits into the NFL exactly, but he is so full of talent they will find a way to make it work and he is a major upgrade over what they have.

Should Take: Same. They need a safety and the top two are gone, Peppers has the talent to be the best of the three but I don’t think he will. Still he should be pretty good.


20. Denver Broncos – The Broncos need to fix their OL first and foremost but there are other needs that could be addressed as well.

Will Take: Garrett Bolles OT Utah – Bolles is not a top notch player but has the potential to be and the Broncos really need somebody to man the LT spot.

Should Take: David Njoku TE Miami – There are no LT worth a pick here but the Broncos also need a TE and Njoku would be the top TE most other years and possibly a top 10. He has a lot of potential but needs to continue to develop.


21. Detroit Lions – The Lions always seem to have holes on defense. They have tried to shore up their OL with mixed results but are better now than they were a year ago.

Will Take: Derek Barnett DE Tennessee – Barnett is a fine football player but very much an all or nothing type of player, so he will either get the sack or blow the play. He almost looks too quick for his own good sometimes and he lacks awareness. The Lions will look at him as too productive to pass up, but he is a one trick pony.

Should Take: Zach Cunningham LB Vanderbilt – Cunningham is going to be excellent in the NFL. I know he could be faster, but he has field speed, he is a bit thin, but he can fill out. When he is a good tackler, smart player, and does not waste his time with blowing people up. This is a dynamite pick for the Lions here.


22. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have some solid players to work with. They have a few holes but can be very smart with this pick.

Will Take: David Njoku TE Miami – They can just send the team bus to pick him up. Very good player, won’t have to move, fills a major team need. Done.

Should Take: Taco Charlton DE Michian – Charlton is still raw and will be given time to develop in Miami, they can use him as a situational player for his rookie year then unleash him in year 2 after he has put on some weight.


23. New York Giants – The Giants will have their pick of the players that have fallen for various reasons here. They also have a need on the OL, which seems pretty much every year as they keep drafting the wrong players.

Will Take: Cam Robinson OT Alabama – Robinson’s potential is great to be great as well as to be a bust. The Giants are desperate and Robinson should be able to fill in at RT at the very least.

Should Take: Reuben Foster LB Alabama – While I do not think that Foster is a top 10 player, he is a good pick here for the Giants. They need somebody to come in and bring some smack to the LB core.


24. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders should really be the favorites for the SB in the AFC. They have some impressive young players and a coaching staff that knows how to use them.

Will Take: Haason Reddick LB Temple – Again, Reddick is a real wild card since he is a projected DE to LB, but he looked like he belonged at the Senior Bowl. He fits a need for the Raiders who legit were Superbowl contenders before the injury to Carr.

Should Take: Tradavious White CB LSU – There are a lot of individuals out there that like Teeze Tabor and Marlon Humphrey but both make too many mistakes. White is good but not great but should fill in well with the Raiders given their needs.


25. Houston Texans – The Texans need a QB, they always need a QB for some reason. Maybe they can end it here.

Will Take: Deshaun Watson QB Clemson – Watson is better than what the Texans have. Is he a first round pick, probably not? Is he very close to Geno Smith, maybe but he has a much better mentality and leadership qualities. Another one of those players that I really like but I am just not sure if he has it in him to be anything more than average in the NFL.

Should Take: Davis Webb QB Cal – When you throw on the tape it is hard to not like the things that Webb does. I have a feeling that we will look back at this draft and feel the same way about him that we felt about Derek Carr (whom I also said was going to be great).


26. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks ignored their OL for years and it has been in shambles the last two. I get it, they got away with castoffs from other teams for a long time because of their RB and QB. But the RB is not there anymore and the QB is getting destroyed. The better question is; can anybody help them at this spot?

Will Take: Forrest Lamp OL Western Kentucky – Lamp is likely going to be a G in the NFL, but why not see if he can play T? He is the best OL available at this spot and in a way, I like him second to only Ramcyzk of all OL in the draft.

Should Take: Same – Figure out his position in training camp and get your best five OL out there.


27. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have a lot of areas where they are getting old or are flat out missing players so there are a lot of directions they could go.

Will Take: Mike Williams WR Clemson – While not even close to their greatest need yet, they will need a big WR soon and they will not have a shot at a WR of Williams potential in the future.

Should Take: Adoree Jackson CB USC – Okay, work with me here for a moment. They do not have a very good second CB. All the CBs that are available are gambles, so why not gamble on an amazing athlete who might have only shown a small sliver of what he can do? So being removed from the hype of him, I took a look and instantly thought, boy this guy looks like a more athletic (though not as fast with straight line speed) Sam Shields. The guy has potential and will give up some plays but will also make some plays in the process. I really like the way he plays the game.


28. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys were very good last year with a rookie QB so they are in excellent shape for this year. Still, there are some holes that need to be filled.

Will Take: Marlon Humphrey CB Alabama – Humphrey has his moments both good and bad but you could say that about a lot of CBs. Dallas turned things around a little bit last year with the secondary but they have lost two DBs to free agency so Humphrey fills a need here.

Should Take: Same – Humphrey should go in this area and I like him more than the others that are available.


29. Green Bay Packers – The Packers need to fix their CBs but tend to go for the best player available and that is not a CB at this spot.

Will Take: Takkarist McKinley OLB UCLA – If this is what happens, then Clay Matthews is moving back to ILB and McKinley will man the outside opposite Nick Perry. McKinley is feisty and just needs to be a little more consistent but he is much further along than Perry was when he came out of USC. There should be some serious consideration for Zach Cunningham here.

Should Take: Desmond King CB Iowa – Maybe I am wrong here, maybe he is too small or slow, but when I put on tape of this guy, I see a great CB. There have been plenty of CBs that have been successful and not speed demons.


30. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have a really great team that just needs to solidify a few spots.
  
Will Take: Zach Cunningham LB Vanderbilt – The Steelers need a MLB and Cunningham is a perfect fit for them.

Should Take: Tim Williams OLB Alabama – Williams is a very tenacious player with pass rushing skills. It is possible he could fit either inside or outside but either way, he seems like a good fit for the Steelers.


31. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons showed me with my opinion of their draft last year! They will unfortunately be forever known as the greatest choke artists. They have some needs but there are a lot of players available here that can help them.

Will Take: Malik McDowell DL Michigan State – The best available DL at this spot may be McDowell. He could play either the Up Tackle or DE and they have a need in both spots.

Should Take: Jordan Willis DE Kansas State – There are a lot of parallels in the way that Willis plays and Derek Barnett plays. Both have extremely good first steps. But Willis plays a bit more in control and I think he has higher upside.


32. New Orleans Saints (from New England Patriots) The Saints took Solomon Thomas in the Will Take Scenario and OJ Howard in the should take scenario. That still leaves some major holes.

Will Take: Curtis Samuels WR Ohio State – Why trade Brandon Cooks for the 32nd pick in the draft, you want the new model and possibly better model with Samuels.

Should Take: Obi Melifonwu S Connecticut – The Saints just cut ties with Jarius Byrd, Melifonwu can be everything Byrd was supposed to be.


Bonus!
33. Cleveland Browns - Davis Webb QB Cal – Moneyball works, by 2018, this looks to be a steal!

Alright, that is it for now but thank you for reading and please comment with how much you agree or disagree. Love you all!

André