Hello Draft Compass Fans. Here is my quick review of the first round. As in the past few years, I like to do Quality Rankings and Risk Rankings since grading is a bit futile. This year was a pretty fascinating first round filled with a ton of talent but a few head scratchers. Most of the issues are linked less with a player I think is a bust and more with players getting drafted in odd spots.
Quality Ranking means how well the team did with the fit of the player, the players skill level, and where they were picked to a lesser degree. 1 -32 with 1 being the highest quality player and 32 being the lowest quality player.
Risk Rank refers to how risky of a player I think they are. 1 is the riskiest player drafted in the first round with 32 being the guy that I think poses little to no risk.
| Team | Name | Comments | Quality Rank (1 highest - 32 lowest) | Risk Rank (1 highest - 32 lowest risk) |
1 | Bears | QB Caleb Williams | Williams has shown a lot in college. He has said a lot of the right things. You have to wonder about some of the rumblings on things he said and if there is any truth behind it. I am still unsure of if his game will truly translate. That said, he is clearly talented. There is always risk with a QB. I am not ready to anoint him but he should be relatively safe to be decent. | 7 | 14 |
2 | Commanders | QB Jayden Daniels | I am really torn on Daniels. I definitely would not be surprised if he turns out to be the best QB in this draft. Relatively speaking though, he seems like a safe pick to be a solid at worst QB. | 8 | 13 |
3 | Patriots | QB Drake Maye | I like Maye a lot and among the QBs in the first round, he is in the best situation. However, he is not a complete player just yet so the talent is a little up in the air and there is some degree of risk involved. | 16 | 18 |
4 | Cardinals | WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | I think it is pretty clear that he is the top overall player in this draft. He has been productive for a few seasons. He is a craftsman. Smallest risk. | 1 | 32 |
5 | Chargers | OT Joe Alt | Alt is super talented and to me was clearly the best OL in the draft. He is not Orlando Pace but there is little doubt that he should be very solid for a number of years. | 5 | 31 |
6 | Giants | WR Malik Nabers | I am very unsure of Nabers. He has a ton of upside but his struggles against press along with some of his cockiness is pretty off putting. Huge boom or bust here. | 11 | 2 |
7 | Titans | OT JC Latham | Latham is not there yet and has a degree of potential but that is not the guy you pick 7thoverall. I had three other OTs rated ahead of him. The quality is just not there for this spot and his risk of putting it together seems relatively high. | 24 | 7 |
8 | Falcons | QB Michael Penix Jr. | The biggest kerfuffle of a pick. I like the player but the Falcons did not set themselves up very well for this pick. They had to have known they would get him here before signing Cousins. That said, I think Penix could be pretty successful in this league if he starts next year. But Cousin’s contract is four years guaranteed. So strange. The risk factor here has less to do with Penix himself and more to do with the bad situation. | 20 | 8 |
9 | Bears | WR Rome Odunze | I love this pick for the Bears. Odunze is a huge playmaker with instincts and upside. The degree of risk is due to some potential injury concerns but this is one of my favorite picks in the first round. | 6 | 19 |
10 | Vikings | QB JJ McCarthy | I am not a fan of McCarthy. I just keep thinking about how much his running game helped him. One of many red flags that Cade McNown had was similar. I am not saying he is McNown but it could be his lack of true QB skills will be exposed. Still, with some patience he could work out. The price for moving up also hurts here. | 31 | 5 |
11 | Jets | OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu | Fashanu is such an interesting case. All signs pointed to him being a top pick a year ago but a few holes were poked in his game. That said, the talent is clearly there and the risk is medium due to the regression. | 9 | 15 |
12 | Broncos | QB Bo Nix | Bo Nix seems to be the one that outperformed his talent to a small degree. That said, this is an excellent fit for him. I like Nix but this is a reach at this point due to QB being highly rated. I think he will be what he is supposed to be but never a star. | 23 | 23 |
13 | Raiders | TE Brock Bowers | I think this was a slightly strange pick because the were not weak at TE. However, he will compliment Mayer and make it easier on whatever QB is throwing to him. Bowers has been good for years, how they use him will dictate his success but I think this was a steal at 13 and there is little risk. | 2 | 30 |
14 | Saints | OT Taliese Fuaga | I am fairly high on Fuaga and I believe he is of little risk. He has been solid in his play, very good athletic skills, and will be a strong starter for years. He has been the guy he is supposed to be so there is little risk here. | 12 | 28 |
15 | Colts | Edge Laiatu Latu | The risk factor here is solely the injury. Watch this guys tape and he terrorizes opponents with stringing moves together. Every play is 100%. Quality wise, few players are as complete as him. | 3 | 16 |
16 | Seahawks | DT Byron Murphy II | I am not hot on this pick. Murphy was a late riser who kept rising in the last month and that is typically a red flag. I think he will be good in the league but he is not going to be the focus in most defensive gameplans. Size and his rise leaves a decent degree of risk. | 18 | 17 |
17 | Vikings | Edge Dallas Turner | Turner is one of the higher risk players in this draft. He is not the sum of his parts yet but was very productive so his quality factor is pretty high. However, that leaves a higher risk factor as well. The Vikings are doing this wrong, they have given up too many picks for a team that is rebuilding. | 10 | 11 |
18 | Bengals | OT Amarius Mims | Mims has a lot of talent but there is just so much risk here as he has not demonstrated that he is going to be able to handle complex pass-rushers. This stinks of Meki Becton situation. This is too high for him so quality is relatively low but that ceiling is crazy good. | 28 | 3 |
19 | Rams | Edge Jared Verse | Verse is the biggest boom or bust in this draft. There are times when he looks dominant and other times (see vs Graham Barton) where he has gotten destroyed (he did get the best of Barton on occasion). High risk factor with too many inconsistencies to be high quality in my book. | 22 | 1 |
20 | Steelers | OT Troy Fautanu | I really like Fautanu a lot but there is some question on if his skills will translate to Tackle or Guard. He is brute when he plays and will give it his all. This leads to high quality for this spot and lower risk factor. | 13 | 29 |
21 | Dolphins | Edge Chop Robinson | Robinson is the classic “what he could be if he puts it together”. His tape shows a guy that has skills but also becomes invisible. You take that risk when you can ease a guy in and injuries may push him to start before he is ready. That said, the ceiling is very high. Feels very K’Lavon Chaisson to me. There were greater needs here. | 29 | 4 |
22 | Eagles | CB Quinyon Mitchell | Rumor had it that the Eagles were considering trading up for Mitchell and I felt that was a good pick if they had. This is hitting it out of the park. So far, every test that they have thrown at Mitchell he was successful. The risk is solely linked with caliber of competition but I would bet on him being a dominant NFL player. | 4 | 20 |
23 | Jaguars | WR Brian Thomas Jr | One really difficult thing to project is when you are the #2 on your college team. The attention was a little less on him so that opens it up. But he may not be anything more than a deep threat. We have seen a lot of those types where their inconsistencies are a detriment to the team. Higher risk factor and lower quality. | 27 | 9 |
24 | Lions | CB Terrion Arnold | Arnold is very interesting to me. While I do not think he is going to be a star which lowers his quality I think he is always going to be giving it his all. High floor low ceiling type but that said, any NFL GM would take a consistent starter at 24. Lions did a good job here. | 19 | 25 |
25 | Packers | OL Jordan Morgan | Surprise pick for the Packers but among the tackles left on the board, I feel like he was the best that was left (Barton is more of an interior and I am not a fan of Guyton). Morgan has some skills but some of his tape is a little messy. If he fixes his technique they will have something. Otherwise we are looking at somebody that will be very average. | 25 | 22 |
26 | Buccaneers | OL Graham Barton | With the Buccaneers listing him as a Center, I think this was a shrewd pick. Barton plays angry which is exactly what you want with an interior offensive lineman. He shows up every game and there is enough talent to work with here that his risk is relatively low. | 17 | 26 |
27 | Cardinals | Edge Darius Robinson | Robinson is an interesting case. He is the top power DE in this draft but lacks the finesse. Still, his power rush game is a thing of beauty. The quality is high because he is so good at that one thing. Cardinals need a guy like this on their team. His consistency and the acceptance of him being what he is leads to a lower risk. | 14 | 27 |
28 | Chiefs | WR Xavier Worthy | The Chiefs seem to know what they are doing but Worthy is a speed guy that shows potential of putting things together to be more complete. That said, I am not sure he has all of the other parts needed to be a complete receiver. I am not a fan of this pick and the bust factor is high leading to a high risk factor. | 30 | 6 |
29 | Cowboys | OT Tyler Guyton | Guyton seems very blah to me. He still has some work to do to refine his game but I am not sure he has what is needed to be anything more than average. Quality is relatively low due to that. With that said, he is still learning the nuances so there is some ceiling there which is the high risk factor. | 26 | 12 |
30 | Ravens | CB Nate Wiggins | Wiggins has the coverage ability and moxie but those pretzel legs and his lack of tackling ability/power scares me a bit. High risk factor and he could turn out but I am just not seeing the fit and quality there. Maybe I am still stunned over Emmanuel Forbes being a 1st last year and having a similar build? | 21 | 10 |
31 | 49ers | WR Ricky Pearsall | Yeah, this was a stunner pick. The thought is likely that they missed on the guy they really wanted so they went with the safer bet. Pearsall is likely to be a decent option but his ceiling feels like a complimentary 3rd down receiver. Not what you want from the 31stpick. That leads to the low quality rank. The risk factor is medium due to him being a consistent presence. Just such a strange pick. | 32 | 24 |
32 | Panthers | WR Xavier Legette | Panthers need to help their young QB (Pun accidental) and Legette has demonstrated that he can help a QB look better. His size is fascinating to me. I am not positive that he fully translates to the NFL as a difference maker but I think he is relatively safe to be a consistent presence that you can rely on. For this spot, I think the Panthers were smart. | 15 | 21 |
