Per usual, I am going to set this
up where I have the Should Pick and
the Will Pick scenarios. So, my
opinion is heavily waited on who the best players are in the former and my best
guess with the traditional mock draft in the latter. Some of you may call me
crazy for some of these but I do not think they are too outrageous based on GMs
histories. There are a few players I consider untouchable and it will be clear
by the end.
1.
Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals could use a
bit of help in a lot of areas. I do not see them trading out of this pick
whether they are enamored with Murray or not.
Should Pick: DE Nick Bosa Ohio
State – When Joey Bosa came out in 2016 I initially had him being taken 1st
overall before the Rams traded up for the first pick. Many teams would be
willing to take Joey first overall and Nick should be no different. Nick is not
quite as long as Joey but they are so similar in the way that they play. Much
like Joey, he strings multiple moves together. There is a part of me that also
thinks Quinnen Williams should be
considered because he is so unique and versatile.
Will Pick: QB Kyler Murray
Oklahoma – I just do not see this as a smoke screen, I really think that
they covet him. Kingsbury wants his guy and has a vision for what he can do
with him so it may not be a terrible idea. However, that does not mean that his
vision will equal success.
2.
San Francisco 49ers – I am having a hard time
seeing the 49ers staying in this spot because somebody is going to scramble to
move up to take their guy regardless of who the Cards pick. But projected
trades will come in future mock drafts so we will stay put here.
Should Pick: OLB Josh Allen
Kentucky – Allen is scheme versatile and is a high motor player. With Bosa
gone in this scenario they take the next best defender that can help them.
There is some thought for Quinnen
Williams and I would not blame them for taking him here either. Still,
Allen probably helps them a bit more.
Will Pick: DE Nick Bosa Ohio State
– Even if it is a strength on your team, you can never have enough
pass-rushers and Bosa is elite. There should be no reason to pass him up here.
3.
New York Jets – The Jets are in an excellent
spot here and the player in this draft that should help them the most is going
to be likely the player they get:
Should Pick: DL Quinnen Williams
Alabama – Williams is a rare talent that should pair extremely well with
Leonard Williams. Both players can play all over the line and disrupt so it
should be interesting to see how teams try to handle that.
Will Pick: Same
4.
Oakland Raiders – I think there is a 50/50 shot
that the Raiders look to trade down a few slots if possible but that of course
takes two to do that. If they stay put, they really need to grab whomever is
the elite player left here.
Should Pick: DE/OLB Montez Sweat
Mississippi State– Sweat is a small gamble here because he is such an odd
size for a DE and there is no guarantee that he could play a rush OLB. Regardless,
he has elite traits and has shown that he can use his size to his advantage so
he would be a nice fit for coaches that can think outside the box.
Will Pick: OLB Josh Allen Kentucky
– The Raiders need to bring back the high motor player that they lost in
trading away Kahlil Mack. Allen is the closest thing to Kahlil Mack, not close
to the same level of course, since Mack came out. If you look back to that
draft and what was said about Mack, there are some interesting parallels so
they would be smart to take him here.
5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – What Tampa Bay should do
and what they will do are two different things here. They have some needs in a
few places but they are not this bad of a team.
Should Pick: QB Dwayne Haskins
Ohio State – Seriously, it is time to cut your losses with Jameis Winston.
Fitzpatrick showed that an average QB could take advantage of the tools
available. Haskins is not my favorite QB to come out recently but he is a
leader and he has the ability to make some pretty remarkable plays. With this
supporting cast he would make a lot of those.
Will Pick: LB Devin Bush Michigan
– Bush is a great athlete with a high motor that could add some juice to
this defense. I suspect that there is a reason that they let Kwon Alexander
leave beyond just the injury and money. Bush could fill that role and then
some.
6.
New York Giants – The Giants are led by Dave
Gettlemen who always seems to make inconsistent rash decisions which makes
choosing his picks difficult. One year, in the middle of the draft, Chris
texted Andre and said, “Panthers are really just shooting from the hip”, and
that is the best way to explain Dave Gettlemen as a GM. I find it ironic that
he traded away OBJ (For the record, I agree with him doing so) because he
always seems to bring in WRs with baggage. There is no choice that I have gone
more back and forth on than the Giants. Gettlemen claims that they are going to
draft a pass-rusher so to me, that means that they will either 1. Trade for
Rosen or 2. Take Haskins here.
Should Pick: DT Ed Oliver Houston
– Sure the Giants on the surface do not need a DT and they need a pass rusher.
But Oliver might actually fit in as a DE more than a DT depending on the
system. His upside is great and he has shown enough flashes where this should
be the right pick.
Will Pick: QB Dwayne Haskins Ohio
State – Much like Ron Wolf did in the 1990s, Gettlemen seems to like to throw
a lot of misinformation out there. Or he really is just that erratic, who
knows. But him saying that he is taking a pass-rusher leads me to think that he
will go QB first. While I think Rosen might be the better buy with a 3rd
round pick, Haskins is not a bad pick here.
7.
Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars got their new
QB in Foles and he is solid but not the type that makes his receivers better.
The Jaguars need to focus on getting Foles both protection and targets.
Should Pick: WR DK Metcalf Ole
Miss – Even before the combine, I felt that Metcalf was going to be a great
WR. While some might call this high for him, the Jaguars need to draft at least
2 WR so why not get the best one in the draft.
Will Pick: LB Devin White LSU – While
the Jags have bigger needs, the allure of having two LBs that are great
athletes will be too much. With White still being available here the Jags will
think he is too talented to pass up. It will be interesting to see if this
happens and how they can get creative with White. It would be hard to dislike
this pick even if it is not the greatest need.
8.
Detroit Lions – The Lions need to continue to
find reinforcements on offense to help Matthew Stafford and on Defense to take
the pressure off the offense. At this point in the draft the defense is the
area that still has elite talent.
Should Pick: DE Rashan Gary
Michigan – A lot of sources out there are hot on Clelin Ferrell and on the surface, he is the better prospect. With
that being said, he also had a much stronger supporting cast around him and
that always throws up red flags for me. Typically that means that one of the
three will be good. Sometimes it is good to compromise on the safer pick.
Will Pick: DE Clelin Ferrell
Clemson – Ferrell clearly has a lot of talent and should theoretically be a
very good player. However, I am so wary of Clemson players and their lack of
success in the NFL. Additionally, it is tough to totally trust that he was as
good as he looked because he had such a strong supporting cast.
9.
Buffalo Bills – The Bills took their man last
year and now it is time to protect that man and give him some weapons, the
former making more sense in the first round.
Should Pick: OT Jonah Williams
Alabama – I know that Dillard, Taylor, Little, and even Ford have been
getting more love than Williams in some cases but Williams is the best of the them
all. He has the right temperament, mentality, and skills to be a very good
tackle in the NFL. Similar to Jack Conklin when he came out but a bit more
versatile and athletic. Conklin was the safest pick when he came out and so is
Williams, do not risk your young QB with a gamble. Receivers will come later.
Will Pick: Same – It just makes
too much sense at this point.
10.
Denver Broncos – John Elway is going to destroy
the Broncos. He just does not have the eye for talent that he things he does.
With that said, getting Flacco was a move in the right direction, now it is
time to get the right young guy under his wing.
Should Pick: LB Devin White LSU – Pairing
Devin White with Josey Jewell (One of my favorites from last year) makes the LB
insane at this point. Power, speed, coverage, savviness, WOW! Too good of a
player to pass up at this point.
Will Pick: QB Drew Lock Missouri –
Lock reminds me so much of Jake Locker in more than just his name. The guy
throws a pretty ball in practice, looks great at his pro day, looked great
during the week of the Senior Bowl. But then has moments where he lays an
absolute egg in games. Talent is there, Elway likes that, but you have to
wonder about what happens on game day.
11.
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have a few
needs to pump up the roster, should start looking at their future at a few
positions, and have a new offensive coach who might want to explore what he can
do with offensive players. This may complicate their selection here quite a bit
but logic would say to take the best available player.
Should Pick: LB Devin Bush – In
this scenario Bush is there and is a safer bet than grabbing an OT. I am
curious if letting Burfict go was because he was Burfict or if it was
telegraphing that they were happy with grabbing any of the top 3 ILBs and
figured they would get a shot at one of the three.
Will Pick: DL Ed Oliver Houston – With
Devin Bush off of the board they are going to look towards their future and
realize that Oliver is exactly what they need and can use to disrupt offenses.
They could also use an OT and there are plenty of those here but they are a bit
more of a gamble at this point.
12.
Green Bay Packers – The Packers addressed the Pass-Rusher
issue and Safety issue in free agency (or at least mostly did in those cases)
so it allows them to take the best player available at this point. With some
big needs at TE and OL at this point they have a choice of a few solid players.
Should Pick: TE TJ Hockenson Iowa –
A month or two ago, this would look like it was a bit too high. But Hockenson
is rising like crazy and might be the best all around TE to come out since Rob Gronkowski
(minus those nasty injury issues of course). When you say that about a player
that means that you should not say that any price is too high unless you are a
Kicker or a Punter. Take him here and fill up on OL, DL, ILB, and a second S
later.
Will Pick: OG/OT Cody Ford
Oklahoma – I have a growing suspicion that the Packers will roll the dice
later and pick up whichever TE is available at the back of round 1 or the start
of round 2. It is hard to argue with this pick too much but I would hate to see
an elite player get by for a solid player.
13.
Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins clearly are going
to make a play for a young QB during the draft. The question really is when?
They also let Ja'Wuan James go, but let’s be serious, he never should have been
a 1st round pick in the first place and was not worth near that
contract. Still they will need to replace him at some point along with bringing
in some pass rushers
Should Pick: QB Daniel Jones Duke –
Jones is a cerebral type of QB that is likely never going to be the top QB
in the league, but so what? A good QB who is consistent helps a team more than
a great QB that is erratic (Blake Bortles or Ryan Tannehill anybody). One thing
I like about Jones is that with QBs that were more hyped up at the Senior Bowl
he still manage to clearly outshine the others. He will have a year to learn
the ropes with Fitzmagic!
Will Pick: Same – It is hard to see
them pass up a talented and smart QB here.
14.
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons have a pretty
solid team overall but could fill some gaps here and there. As long as they
have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on offense it is impossible to count them out. But
you also need to protect the former investment.
Should Pick: OL Cody Ford Oklahoma
– The Falcons need to build up their line a bit as they have two strong OL
but could use a bit of work. Ford could be a Right Tackle or may need to be a
guard. Either way, he should be a strong foundation to help strengthen the
line.
Will Pick: OT Jawaan Taylor Florida
– With Ford gone Taylor is the best fit and worthy of the risk at this
point. He may flame out and never reach his full potential. When I watched
tape, there were plays where his teammate Martez Ivey looked more impressive,
though he also had some plays that looked much uglier than Taylor. At this
point the reward will outweigh the risk.
15.
Washington Redskins – The Redskins could think
about a young QB here, but that well is drying up a bit at this point in my
book. With Keenum at the helm while Alex Smith recovers they should be fine
there. Instead they need to turn toward replacing Preston Smith and fixing the
WR corp. It pains me to admit it, but Josh Doctson is not likely to work out at
this point.
Should Pick: OLB Brian Burns Florida
State – At this point, the Redskins will have their choice of pass rushers
that each have their own type of issues. Burns fits them the best and is
demonstrating that he will do what it takes to be successful in the NFL with
putting on a little bit more weight. Certainly a gamble but if he does not work
out, it will not be due to effort.
Will Pick: WR DK Metcalf Ole Miss –
Metcalf would be just what the doctor ordered for the Redskins with his
speed, size, and hands. Again, I know they say that his acceleration is not as
great and that he is a bit of a long strider but I saw a stud when I watched
tape on him so I think he will be very good.
16.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are going to
need to continue to revamp their team by adding targets on offense and
continuing to add more pass rush on defense.
Should Pick: OT Jawan Taylor Florida
– The Panthers need to keep trying to solidify their line and Taylor is the
best on the board in this scenario. He is not ideal but he is better than the
ones that they have been bringing in and overpaying for.
Will Pick: DE Montez Sweat – I
know people think that his combine has skyrocketed him but there have got to
still be some concerns with his past and where he fits in the NFL so he will
drop a bit. It also seems quite fitting for Sweat to replace Julius Peppers.
Now, if Greg Olson does in fact decide to retire then consideration for TJ Hockenson may be here as well.
17.
New York Giants (via Browns) – If the Giants do
not take a QB with their first pick, it is incredibly unlikely that they stay
put here. They would likely move up from this spot with the draft ammo they have
and secure the QB they want.
Should Pick: QB Kyler Murray
Oklahoma – With the other QBs gone at this point, Murray is worth the risk.
In this scenario, the Cardinals never selected Murray, which means that Rosen
is still their QB and it causes Murray to fall this far. Murray is a tough sell
to me but it is not like we are talking about a guy like Tim Tebow where he was
an inaccurate QB. Murray has the skills, he is just going to be challenged with
his playing style and obvious height issues.
Will Pick: Jachai Polite Florida –
It seems like Gettlemen may want to reload the pass rush and will go with
the guy that appears to be the best pass rusher on the board. With that said,
Polite is ripe for being a huge bust as he is more of a “pin his ears back”
type of rusher. Sacks and forced fumbles are great but if you watch his tape,
you see a guy that seems to take plays off or stop early in plays if they are
running plays. Seems like a Gettlemen type of player but I do not see success
myself.
18.
Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings could go a few
different directions here and will need to consider immediate need over future
needs mostly on offense.
Should Pick: DE Clelin Ferrell Clemson
– While not their biggest need, the Vikings are going to need a player like
Ferrell in the near future when Griffen starts to slow down a bit/when Hunter
decides to ask for too much money. Additionally, he is a complimentary DE for
the style of both of those players so it makes sense here.
Will Pick: S Nassir Adderly
Delaware – I have a feeling that this is going to be a reach pick for the Vikings.
I like Adderly and all but I think he is getting a little overrated and will
need at least a year to adjust. With that being said, Harrison Smith can help
him out along the way so some of his mistakes could be reduced through
adjustments and Smith tutoring him a bit.
19.
Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in a solid
spot here where talent is available and they do not need to be desperate for
anybody in particular. Pass rusher, DL, and maybe even Safety top the list.
Should Pick: DT Dexter Lawrence Clemson
– Lawrence is not the sexy pick here but he could help the Titans quite a
bit as he is a big man that can hold the point or push the pocket a bit. I
think he is going to be the most successful of the Clemson Lineman, though the
stats will not show it.
Will Pick: OLB Brian Burns Florida
State – Burns can be a part time player as he works his way into the lineup
and can be a specialist early. Really, a pretty ideal situation for both sides
as Burns continues to bulk up a bit and learn the ropes. Nice pick here.
20.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers could use a
CB, TE, and ILB or just go best available here. They may also flirt with the
idea of a WR but this might be a bit too high.
Should Pick: CB Deandre Baker Georgia–
I know that Greedy Williams is getting more love at this point in time but
he is a bit overrated and Baker is going to be a strong physical presence at
CB. There has been a bit of disappointment with some of the CBs that the
Steelers have brought in so this pick makes sense here.
Will Pick: TE TJ Hockenson Iowa – There
is no way that Hockenson gets past the Steelers, he is far too good of a
player. Watching tape on him is a thing of beauty if you love to see TE that
throw strong blocks, he has great hands, and is deceptively fast.
21.
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks have solid
roster but need to strengthen their defensive backfield and could still use
some reinforcements on the offensive line.
Should Pick: S Nasir Adderley
Delaware – It is a bit of a toss-up between Adderley and Deionte Thompson at this point.
Adderley’s skill set aligns a bit more with what the Seahawks have done in the
past at FS and has better coverage skills so he gets the edge here.
Will Pick: TE Noah Fant Iowa – The
Seahawks need another athletic receiver to help out Russell Wilson and Fant has
a lot of talent. I am not positive that he is a better pick than Irv Smith Jr. even though he has more
potential. Wait, not only will this mean that two TE go in a row but both are
from Iowa! Double history and I did not even intend for that.
22.
Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens helped themselves
in the past and in current free agency to take the pressure off of their free
agency losses for the most part. However, there is still a glaring need at WR
so it will likely come down to whomever they feel is the best at the position
and there are a few that are worthy of this spot.
Should Pick: WR Deebo Samuel South
Carolina – For my money (which is not really my money of course) Deebo
Samuel is the best WR in this draft but his height puts him a hair below DK
Metcalf. Still, I think he is worthy of a 1st round grade with his
quickness, hands, build, and awareness. I thought about N’Keal Harry here but when
I watched his tape, he has a lot of shorter routes and is a bit too physical
before the ball gets there. I also cannot stand a WR that does not block on
running plays, especially when they are this big.
Will Pick: OLB Jaylon Ferguson LA
Tech – The need for WR exists here but the Ravens seem to always bring in
more pass-rushers. When I was watching tape on Ferguson all I kept thinking is
that he was playing out of position at DE and really shows more coverage
ability and field awareness than one might think. Ferguson seems to be a
perfect fit for the Ravens even if they have more glaring needs. I have a
feeling they will see it that way. The off the field stuff should be considered
ancient history at this point.
23.
Houston Texans – The Texans could use some
reinforcements on the OL, DL, and in the defensive backfield.
Should Pick: WR Marquise Brown
Oklahoma – One way to take pressure off of Watson is to give him another
weapon. Will Fuller is too unreliable and should not have ever been a 1st.
Brown offers versatility as a slot receiver and an offensive weapon. Yeah, he
is short but so is Tyreek Hill who has proven that when used properly,
x-factors throw off the defense.
Will Pick: CB Greedy Williams LSU –
Clearly my opinion of Williams is that he is a bit overrated so I would not
go this route but the Texans have been itching to find a shutdown corner to
help their defensive backfield.
24.
Oakland Raiders (Via Bears) – The Raiders
addressed pass rusher with their first pick so they can move on to other
immediate needs with their second pick: TE, RB, CB all come to mind as needs.
Should Pick: TE Irv Smith Jr. Alabama
– Smith is shorter than Fant and has less physical tools but his hustle on
plays and drive seem to be greater. Additionally, he does not have a TE
opposite him drawing away some of the coverage. I give him the edge over Fant
and think he is the safer pick.
Will Pick: CB Deandre Baker
Georgia – The Raiders grab a physical corner here to erase some past
mistakes and bring even more swagger to the defense. Baker seems like a Gruden
type of player.
25.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles continue to
keep a strong defensive front to take pressure off the back-end. However, they
could use a featured back on offense.
Should Pick: RB Josh Jacobs
Alabama – The biggest knock on Jacobs is that he was in a rotation in
college. However, that is how the Eagles will use him so the match makes
perfect sense. Another one of those guys that will just work hard to be the
best football player he can be and has fought for everything he has earned. Should
be a nice fit here.
Will Pick: Same – We could
certainly argue for a different guy here but Jacobs is a nice fit so no need to
mess with it.
26.
Indianapolis Colts – The recent signing of
Justin Houston adds a pass-rusher to the mix but he may be a part time player
at this point. There should be strong consideration for the most talented
player on the board who is not a QB.
Should Pick: S Deionte Thompson
Alabama – In this scenario, Thompson is the best available player on the
board that can help them in my book. Certainly, there should be consideration
for one of the OTs left too.
Will Pick: DE Rashan Gary Michigan
– At this point Gary has slipped through the cracks a bit but could be an
excellent addition to the Colts defense and they may be able to move him around
a little. The signing of Houston makes this even more attractive because they
could put a strong nickel and dime package together on the line with
pass-rushers. Gary is not a complete player yet, and allowing him to adjust a
bit with a veteran presence will help him in the long run.
27.
Oakland Raiders – The Raiders roll in with their
third first round pick and be happy that a player they can use is still there
for them.
Should Pick: RB David Montgomery
Iowa State – I know some will say this is high but he is just such a
consistent powerful runner that will help the Raiders significantly. If you
went back and asked any team in the NFL if they would give up the 27th
pick for Kareem Hunt (without the legal troubles of course) they would all say
yes! Montgomery has a lot of similarities to Hunt and should be a very good NFL
player.
Will Pick: S Deionte Thompson
Alabama – This is one of those, “erase the sins of the past” picks again
and it would be hard to argue with this pick either. Thompson is not a finished
product but will contribute if not start his rookie year.
28.
Los Angeles Chargers – It seems like I have the
Chargers taking an OT with their first pick for the last five or six years.
They really probably need one, you know?
Should Pick: OT Kaleb McGary
Washington – I like the way that McGary plays quite a bit as he has that
drive and nastiness you crave in an offensive lineman. Maybe the ceiling is
higher for Dillard or Little but I would take McGary over either of them.
Will Pick: DT Dexter Lawrence
Clemson – With declining Leguit’s option they are opening the door to a
replacement. Lawrence is a good pick here as he will do what he needs to do to
help everybody around him and put enough inside pressure on the QB.
29.
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs lost a few guys
and have some holes to plug on their team now but they are in relatively good
shape so they should be able to grab a good player here.
Should Pick: SS Taylor Rapp
Washington – The Chiefs need a solid replacement for Eric Berry and Rapp
fits that bill. He may not be dynamite in one area in particular but he is
solid overall and may be the safest of the safeties in this draft.
Will Pick: RB David Montgomery
Iowa State – Maybe I am drawing too many comparisons to Hunt here but I
think he would be an excellent pick for the Chiefs and if I think that maybe Andy
Reid does too? He is a legit football player who will grind the defenses up.
30.
Green Bay Packers (Via Saints) – The Packers
roll with their second pick in the first round here and go to fill one of the
other big need that they have. In the Should
Pick Scenario, they went with a TE and in the Will Pick they grabbed a G the last time around which effects this
pick greatly as both of those wells are a little dry at this point.
Should Pick: OT Andre Dillard
Washington State – While I have my reservations on him, LaFluer is looking
for more athletic Offensive Lineman and with the Packers getting a TE in this
scenario, Dillard is the best on the board here and would help the Packers down
the road.
Will Pick: TE Irv Smith Jr.
Alabama – Is it fitting that the Packers take Smith here with the Saints
pick? The gamble pays off and the Packers still land one of the three very good
TEs in this draft here. After this, there is such a huge dropoff that there should
be little question that you take him here. I really like the way that Smith
plays. You cannot do anything about him being a little short, but seriously,
Alge Crumpler seemed to have a solid career at the same height (though he was
heavier and a little slower).
31.
Los Angeles Rams – The Rams lost some players in
free agency but are still in relatively good position to make another run at
the Super Bowl again next year.
Should Pick: OL Greg Little Ole
Miss – The Rams will need to secure an Offensive Lineman that can play
tackle for them after this next season and replace the loss of Roger Saffold
right now. Little does both of those things as he should start out at Guard and
then work his way over to Tackle in the future.
Will Pick: Same – This pick makes
a lot of sense for them and in both scenarios he is available.
32.
New England Patriots – The Patriots, as per
usual, have been very low key in everything that they do. I have a suspicion
that they will not trade this pick like everybody seems to think that
they will. They have their eye on somebody and will not risk dropping out of
this spot. Plus, Belichick just loves to grab the guy he wants regardless of
what others seem to think.
Should Pick: QB Drew Lock Missouri
– This is the only scenario I could play out in my head where Lock is going
to be successful in the NFL unless Andy Reid loses his mind and decides to have
two starting QBs on his team. In all seriousness, Lock is much further away
than many people think but has the potential to be great.
Will Pick: QB Will Grier West
Virginia – Maybe I am just crazy, but I think that the Patriots are eyeing
Grier. Do not ask me why, but hey, give me a little credit here because I had
them taking Jimmy G in my live mock draft with Duarte the year he came out. With
that being said, I do not think Grier is going to be a good QB in the NFL at
all. He just
That
is officially a wrap on this first round of mock draft but stay tuned in the
near future for other features and mock drafts! Thank you for reading and making all of the time I put into these worth it!
