First Round Quick Recap with a Spin
The first round is over and it is time to evaluate the picks! For
the first round I am going to give my brief analysis on each player and how
they will fit into the team. The assessment of the player will also include two
rankings: André’s favorite pick (1) to his least favorite pick (32) represented
by Quality Rank and Risk Rank.
The Risk Rank is the
level of risk I feel this player has compared to others in the first round - 32
being the safest player and 1 meaning the highest risk player. Risk is defined
as the likelihood that a player will be a total bust and not contribute for
their team. So there may be a player that will not be live up to their draft position
but will still contribute for the team long term. For example, A.J. Hawk and
Marcedes Lewis were both first round picks that were drafted in 2006. Neither
lived up to a first round pick type of player but both contributed for their
teams for nearly a decade. Therefore, they would be considered middle risk
players since both were contributors but never great. A player like Peyton
Manning had a lot of talent in conjunction with also being nearly a sure thing
at the time. Therefore, Peyton Manning would represent a 32. Julius Peppers and
Vernon Gholston were both players that had a lot of raw talent but were not a
sure thing. Therefore, they would represent a 1 for being the riskiest players.
1. Browns – Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma – The Browns took the QB they wanted most.
Among QBs in this draft Mayfield had the best talent for the least amount of
risk in my book. With that said, Barkley here would have been a better pick.
Quality Rank:
9
Risk Rank: 15
2. Giants – Saquon Barkley RB Penn State – The Giants get the best football player in
the draft here at a position that they have been struggling with for years. A+
in my book with little risk and it makes them instantly better.
Quality Rank:
1
Risk Rank: 31
3. Jets – Sam
Darnold QB USC – Darnold has a lot
of potential but I consistently question his decision making. If the Jets are
patient with him (we know fans will want him to start right away) he might just
turn out. With that said, he carries significant risk here. If they were going
to gamble on potential, I liked Lamar Jackson better here.
Quality Rank:
22
Risk Rank: 9
4. Browns – Denzel Ward CB Ohio State – This was a little bit of a head scratcher to
me. I like the player, but the Browns have been loading up on DBs in the
offseason and he does carry some degree of risk. Was he even close to the 4th
best player in this draft?
Quality Rank:
15
Risk Rank: 20
5. Broncos – Bradley Chubb DE/OLB NC State – The Broncos make one of the smartest
decisions in the draft by hanging tight, ignoring trade offers, and getting a
high character high quality starter for the next decade. Very low risk in
taking him here.
Quality Rank:
2
Risk Rank: 30
6. Colts – Quenton Nelson G Notre Dame – The Colts need to fix the OL and Nelson will
help both the running and passing game considerably. This was an excellent low
risk pick here.
Quality Rank:
3
Risk Rank: 32
7. Bills – Josh Allen QB Wyoming – I have begun to sour a little bit on Allen.
It is not what he did but how he went about explaining himself. It makes you
wonder if he has a longer way to go than originally thought. He carries
significant risk, I feel he is the highest risk player in round 1, but I still
have faith that he will be a better pro than college QB.
Quality Rank:
19
Risk Rank: 1
8. Bears – Roquan Smith LB Georgia – The Bears made an extremely smart move here
and grabbed a super talented low risk player. He is not going to be your
typical Bear LB by any stretch of the imagination but he will be an X factor
for every offense they face. This was exactly what they needed to do here.
Quality Rank:
6
Risk Rank: 28
9. 49ers – Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame – I really like Mike McGlinchey a lot and I
think he will be pretty good. The one hesitation here is that he played with
Nelson and Nelson likely made his job a bit easier. While he may never be a top
LT he should solidify the right side for a long time. Nice pick if not a little
unexpected here.
Quality Rank:
7
Risk Rank: 16
10. Cardinals – Josh Rosen QB UCLA – Rosen represents some of the biggest risk in
this draft. I do not see the player that everybody is talking about when I watch
his tape and I have a really hard time with some of the things off the field
and how he handles things. He may be thrust into action before he is ready and
Rosen is the type of player whose growth will be stunted and may become a head
case.
Quality Rank:
27
Risk Rank: 2
11. Dolphins – Minkah Fitzpatrick S Alabama – I do not doubt the talent here but
Fitzpatrick is a player who may never reach his potential because nobody will
know how to use him. That is why he holds risk and I do not have faith that the
Dolphins will figure out how to use him.
Quality Rank:
17
Risk Rank: 18
12. Buccaneers – Vita Vea DT Washington – I like Vita Vea but big men like him have not
worked out well recently and that is what makes his risk a little higher. I am
also not sure why the Buccaneers did not go with a DB here.
Quality Rank:
16
Risk Rank: 10
13. Redskins – Da’Ron Payne DT Alabama – Payne seems like a little bit of a
reactionary pick here but I really like him a lot and I think he is one of the
lowest risk players in the first round. He should be solid but likely never
great.
Quality Rank:
4
Risk Rank: 29
14. Saints – Marcus Davenport DE UTSA – You have to take into consideration that the
Saints paid a lot to get him here. He also holds significant risk. If the
Saints did not offer up so much for this pick I would say he is worth the risk.
Quality Rank:
29
Risk Rank: 3
15. Raiders – Kolton Miller OT UCLA – I hate this pick a lot. I think it is the
worst pick in the first round. It makes no sense and the risk is far too high,
I am really having a hard time understanding this pick. I think he is sure to
be a bust.
Quality Rank:
32
Risk Rank: 7
16. Bills – Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech – Edmunds might have the highest upside of
anybody in this draft. There is a lot of risk here but the risk is well worth
it and I think Edmunds will become a top player but never a dominant player.
Quality Rank:
20
Risk Rank: 14
17. Chargers – Derwin James S Florida State – James has a lot of potential and is a beast but
the production has not yet matched the talent. He brings significant risk here
but it makes sense for the Chargers, though an offensive lineman would have
made a lot of sense.
Quality Rank:
21
Risk Rank: 5
18. Packers – Jaire Alexander CB Louisville – Alexander is a bit of a high risk player here
but the more I looked at it, the more I realized he is pretty similar to Denzel
Ward. Considering the moves the Packers made and ended up with him, this was a
very high value pick.
Quality Rank:
11
Risk Rank: 19
19. Cowboys – Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State – I do not like this pick very much at all. He
reminds me too much of Shea McClellan and that is not a good thing. I
understand the position but I am really unsure of the player. There is
significant risk here.
Quality Rank:
30
Risk Rank: 4
20. Lions – Frank Ragnow C Arkansas – This is an excellent pick for the Lions and
it will help their line significantly whether Ragnow plays Center or Guard.
This might turn out to be similar to when the Panthers took Ryan Kahlil. This
might be an absolute steal.
Quality Rank:
8
Risk Rank: 27
21. Bengals – Billy Price C
Ohio State – This feels like an absolutely reactionary pick. I like the
player and the pick but I have a feeling they wanted Ragnow. Regardless, low
risk pick that should work out well.
Quality Rank:
18
Risk Rank: 26
22. Titans – Rashaan Evans LB Alabama – Evans was a nice pick here and represents
filling the need with a pretty low risk player. Nice pick overall but not
exciting.
Quality Rank:
12
Risk Rank: 21
23. Patriots – Isaiah Wynn G/T Georgia – This was a little confusing of a pick but a
good player. If they try him out at tackle, I do not think it will work out
well for them. Keep him at guard and he is a good starter for a long time.
Quality Rank:
23
Risk Rank: 24
24. Panthers – D.J. Moore WR Maryland – I really like the pick and player here. Moore
is one of my favorite players and once he has a good QB throwing to him he may
explode. A bit of risk exists here as it does with every WR here but he is well
worth the risk.
Quality Rank:
13
Risk Rank: 12
25. Ravens – Hayden Hurst TE South Carolina – This is the most mundane pick to me in the
first round. I like Hurst but he is never going to be great but he will always
be good. To me, he is the A.J. Hawk of tight ends; he will not get any better
but will play well.
Quality Rank:
244
Risk Rank: 25
26. Falcons – Calvin Ridley WR Alabama – Ridley is a nice player here and will add a
lot of excitement to the Falcons, but they had much greater needs that they
ignored so it sours it a little bit.
Quality Rank:
14
Risk Rank: 13
27. Seahawks – Rashaad Penny RB S.D. State – This was a surprising pick but I think it was
quietly a solid low risk pick. He will not ever be a top back but should grind
out a few thousand yard seasons. I like it, but it is not a sexy pick.
Quality Rank:
25
Risk Rank: 21
28. Steelers – Terrell Edmunds S Virginia Tech – I am just going to say it because nobody else
will. I am pretty sure that the Steelers thought they were drafting Tremaine.
However, Edmunds is going to be solid for a number of years so it is not a bad
pick. He really should have been a 2nd or 3rd.
Quality Rank:
28
Risk Rank: 17
29. Jaguars – Taven Bryan DT Florida – The Jaguars were in a good place to take any
position but really probably should have taken a WR. I do not think he will
ever be a dominate player but he will be very good and this is a pretty low
risk player.
Quality Rank:
10
Risk Rank: 22
30. Vikings – Mike Hughes CB Central Florida – Talk about a team that took a player that
just made no sense. How many first round CBs can a team have in 5 years?
Strange pick, strange fit, and a high risk guy. Missing enrolling at a school
because you did not register in time? Sounds flaky to me.
Quality Rank:
31
Risk Rank: 6
31. Patriots – Sony Michel – I do not mind the player exactly but any time that we have a back that
splits time in college and nobody is sure if the bruiser or the power back are
better. It scares me a little bit. I think of it as a Master Blaster type of
situation; the two need each other and will not work outside of the situation.
Quality Rank:
26
Risk Rank: 11
32. Ravens – Lamar Jackson QB Louisville – This was one of my favorite picks in the
draft. Moving up to grab Jackson here and having the fifth year option was
stellar. High risk but this might be the steal of the draft.
Quality Rank:
5th
Risk Rank: 8th
Day 2 is getting exciting already!
Chart for reference:
|
Risk
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Picked
|
|
|
15
|
9
|
Baker Mayfield
|
1
|
Browns
|
|
31
|
1
|
Saquon Barkley
|
2
|
Giants
|
|
9
|
22
|
Sam Darnold
|
3
|
Jets
|
|
20
|
15
|
Denzel Ward
|
4
|
Browns
|
|
30
|
2
|
Bradley Chubb
|
5
|
Broncos
|
|
32
|
3
|
Quenton Nelson
|
6
|
Colts
|
|
1
|
19
|
Josh Allen
|
7
|
Bills
|
|
28
|
6
|
Roquan Smith
|
8
|
Bears
|
|
16
|
7
|
Mike McGlinchey
|
9
|
49ers
|
|
2
|
27
|
Josh Rosen
|
10
|
Cardinals
|
|
18
|
17
|
Minkah Fitzpatrick
|
11
|
Dolphins
|
|
10
|
16
|
Vita Vea
|
12
|
Buccaneers
|
|
29
|
4
|
Da'Ron Payne
|
13
|
Redskins
|
|
3
|
29
|
Marcus Davenport
|
14
|
Saints
|
|
7
|
32
|
Kolton Miller
|
15
|
Raiders
|
|
14
|
20
|
Tremaine Edmunds
|
16
|
Bills
|
|
5
|
21
|
Derwin James
|
17
|
Chargers
|
|
19
|
11
|
Jaire Alexander
|
18
|
Packers
|
|
4
|
30
|
Leighton Vander Esch
|
19
|
Cowboys
|
|
27
|
8
|
Frank Ragnow
|
20
|
Lions
|
|
26
|
18
|
Billy Price
|
21
|
Bengals
|
|
21
|
12
|
Rashaan Evans
|
22
|
Titans
|
|
24
|
23
|
Isaiah Wynn
|
23
|
Patriots
|
|
12
|
13
|
D.J. Moore
|
24
|
Panthers
|
|
25
|
24
|
Hayden Hurst
|
25
|
Ravens
|
|
13
|
14
|
Calvin Ridley
|
26
|
Falcons
|
|
21
|
25
|
Rashaad Penny
|
27
|
Seahawks
|
|
17
|
28
|
Terrell Edmunds
|
28
|
Steelers
|
|
22
|
10
|
Taven Bryan
|
29
|
Jaguars
|
|
6
|
31
|
Mike Hughes
|
30
|
Vikings
|
|
11
|
26
|
Sony Michel
|
31
|
Patriots
|
|
8
|
5
|
Lamar Jackson
|
32
|
Ravens
|
