First Round Review - Quality Rank and Risk Rank

Hello Draft Compass Fans. Here is my quick review of the first round. As in the past, I like to do Quality Rankings and Risk Rankings since grading is a bit futile. This year was tough. I liked almost every player with a few exceptions. Quality Ranking means how well the team did with the fit of the player, the players skill level, and where they were picked to a small degree. Risk Rank refers to how risky of a player I think they are.

	Team	Name	Comments	Quality Rank (1 highest - 31 lowest)	Risk Rank (1 highest - 31 lowest risk)
1	Panthers	QB Bryce Young	Bryce Young has done literally everything ever asked of him to prove that he is a top QB and he has been successful at it. But his size has got to frighten Panther fans a little bit in the sense that it is a bigger game so he will still need to make adjustments and his body may not hold up so that is the high risk factor. But if he can avoid that and continue to evolve his game as he has, you have a potential hall of famer.	4	11
2	Texans	QB CJ Stroud	I think Stroud is likely the best QB to come out of this draft. He just looked so silky smooth throwing at the combine and save his best game for last. I think that is a view of the future. But with few exceptions (P. Manning, Luck, Lawrence) QBs are always a risky pick so it is tough to move him any higher than this.	5	16
3	Texans	EDGE Will Anderson Jr	Anderson is a hard worker with a lot of talent. He gives it his all so he leads with the both the highest quality and lowest risk pick in the draft.	1	31
4	Colts	QB Anthony Richardson	I will make no secret that I think this is the worst pick in the first round. Richardson has tools to work with so that bumps up his quality but he is the riskiest. He acted like he does not need work in the pre-draft process.	12	1
5	Seahawks	CB Devon Witherspoon	Witherspoon and Anderson seem to be the best bets in this draft from both a talent and low risk standpoint. Witherspoon is probably not going to be Sauce Gardner	2	30
6	Cardinals	OT Paris Johnson Jr.	This was probably a little early for him but the talent is there. He is not as refined as the two proceeding OTs but he has a much higher ceiling. Likely he will be just fine in the NFL but there is still a lot of risk for the 6th overall pick.	14	12
7	Raiders	EDGE Tyree Wilson	I was wrong, the Raiders did not bumble this pick for a change. Wilson is not Will Anderson but he would be the top pass-rusher in other years. His game is a bit more power than finesse (he has that too of course) and he has shown he can play consistently at a high level. Low risk factor and a high quality player here.	8	26
8	Falcons	RB Bijan Robinson	There are so few holes in Robinson's game as he runs with a balance of speed, agility, and power. He does not have the attitude problems linked with some of the top RBs in years past. He also is incredibly versatile too. High end talent and the right attitude equals low risk.	3	29
9	Eagles	DT Jalen Carter	Carter's talent is legit. But I keep thinking about him not being prepared for his pro day. That is what makes me think he is risky. Work ethic could lead to eating his way out of the league or it could be that he ends up being a high end player that needs a lot of rest throughout the game.	6	2
10	Bears	OT Darnell Wright	Wright looks to be a very good football player who will likely work out as a solid but not high end starter. So relatively low risk rate but also not high quality per se.	20	18
11	Titans	OT Peter Skoronski	There is talk that Skoronski may not be a tackle in the NFL so we will see about that but you know he is going to be good if he fits more as a guard. Either way, he is so darn consistent and such a hard worker that he has quality with little risk.	11	28
12	Lions	RB Jahmyr Gibbs	I like the player a lot but the fit is a bit odd. He has high end talent so while this is a reach, it is not a bad pick. Risk factor is high medium since he might be more of a role player and this is too high for that.	23	13
13	Packers	EDGE Lukas Van Ness	Lukas Van Ness certainly has a lot of the tools to be an incredible football player. But he is still blossoming. His game is center on power and it is much harder to overpower OTs in the NFL so his risk factor is high. He will need to learn a lot of the nuances of the game first.	9	7
14	Steelers	OT Broderick Jones	Jones was always the riskiest of the OTs in the first round. I think he is a fine player and will probably be good but there is some Jason Smith to him. So high risk with decent potential reward.	21	6
15	Jets	EDGE Will McDonald IV	McDonald played some lower level competition and he is really undersized. I like the player but this is about a round too early if you ask me. It really felt like the Jets panicked here and took the guy they had slated for round 2. With that said, there is a lot of talent here so he could boom which leads to a high risk factor.	29	5
16	Commanders	CB Emmanuel Forbes	Forbes was certainly a surprise pick this high. I am not so sure he has the talent to match here either. His take away stats are impressive but he is just too light to deal with physical WRs at this point. If a little extra weight does not slow him down too much then the Commanders have something. But he poses a major risk.	31	3
17	Patriots	CB Christian Gonzalez	I was a big fan of Gonzalez for sure. But there are parts of his demeanor that feel very Jeff Okudah to me and that is where some of the risk factor comes in. However, his tools are great and he never should have fallen this far.	16	19
18	Lions	MLB Jack Campbell	A situation where the player himself is not a bad player but he is a bit of an odd fit in today's NFL (Reggie Ragland is a similar example but Campbell is better) and this is too early for him. His risk factor is mostly tied with him not really ever turning into a high end player.	30	10
19	Buccaneers	DT Calijah Kancey	I am still not sure if Kancey is going to be great in the NFL. I like him and his effort and all but I am just not sure that he is a high end talent. That said, you know what you have in him so he is medium low risk.	24	21
20	Seahawks	WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba	JSN has proven that he can be a great player in college. However, the nagging hamstring is one of those things  to give you a little pause. He is also not an elite athlete but a good athlete. That said, I would be stunned if he does not pan out. He has just been too consistently good.	7	27
21	Chargers	WR Quentin Johnston	Johnston has the tools but there are a few clunky parts to his game in respect to change of direction. There have been a lot of receivers like him in the past that have done well (the two on the Chargers) and some that could never put it together (Laquon Treadwell) so the risk factor is certainly there.	18	15
22	Ravens	WR Zay Flowers	Flowers is quicker than he is fast which is not a total negative for a WR, it is just who he is. He has shown that he is an elite player thus far aside from his height. He has the tools to be good but anytime you are a shorter player, it means there is a bit more to overcome. If he fails, it is not going to be due to lack of effort and dedication. I consider him to be the better version of Hollywood Brown.	13	24
23	Vikings	WR Jordan Addison	Addison has a lot of the things you want in an NFL receiver. He is a little undersized and not a burner (though fast enough). The good news for him is that he does not need to be the guy as he will complement Jefferson. That boards well for him. Still, I have been tricked before with guys like Sterling Shepard and Josh Doctson that had a similar style of play.	17	23
24	Giants	CB Deonte Banks	Banks is a great athlete who is feisty with a short memory. Those are most of the traits you need to be successful as a CB. With that being said, his risk factor is linked with awareness of the ball in the air and where he is on the field. Those are things that can be partially taught/practiced and refined. So some risk factor but he is teetering as middle of the road in that respect.	19	14
25	Bills	TE Dalton Kincaid	Kincaid has some spectacular tools to work with and his tape is beautiful. But he is still working on the nuances of TE blocking skills and caliber of competition has to be factored in. That leads to some slight risk but I tend to think he is going to be a tick down from a player like Kelce but anybody would take that at 25.	15	20
26	Cowboys	DT Mazi Smith	I like Mazi Smith as a role player in a 3-4 defense. But his role is one-dimensional. There is a lot of natural talent to work with here so there is potential to take the next step. But he did not do so in college and that leads to a higher risk factor. I cannot figure out what the Cowboys thought process was with this pick at all.	28	9
27	Jaguars	OT Anton Harrison	I like Harrison but he probably is more of a second round talent. The bottom of the first is not a bad spot for him and I like him better than any of the top OTs from last year. Still I think his ceiling is average NFL starter. So lower quality but less risk.	27	22
28	Bengals	EDGE Myles Murphy	I was never particularly high on Murphy. He has all the tools but has not taken that next step. That spells a high risk factor to me. If he can put it together this is a great pick but history is not on his side so I think this is a relatively low quality pick.	26	4
29	Saints	DT Bryan Bresee	Bresee is an interesting one here. His ceiling is low but his floor is high. He is likely to never be a high-end starter but he could be a guy that does all the small things that the Saints will appreciate. So lower quality but relatively safe.	25	25
30	Eagles	EDGE Nolan Smith	Nolan Smith is an incredibly athlete who looked the part in college. The stats are not as good as the potential player since he played on such a great defense. But he is very undersized. I am not so sure that the Eagles was the right team for him to go to so there is high potential to bust. With that said, if he does, my bet is that he does well for the next team that will know how to best use him.	10	8
31	Chiefs	EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah	For where they got him I think Felix Anudike-Uzomah is a fine player. I projected him to the Chiefs. He still poses a slight risk factor in that he is not a complete player just yet. Coaching can fix his flaws though.	22	17

 

Let's get ready for day 2!

Packer Picks Scenarios and some of my favorite players

Welcome Draft Compass Fans. Are we ready for some Packer Picks? I have run something like 25 or so different mock drafts sometimes with trades and sometimes without. I used the Pro Football Focus Engine. 

Here are my top three ones for the no trade scenario and trade scenario. A lot is contingent in each one on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and where he goes. In all of the scenarios I tried to set the parameters of a medium balance among each of the sliders so it should be fair...well, I could not resist, I did do one with "Randomness" cranked up just to see what would happen as well. 

No Trades

This first one represents the best all around of the top of my no trade scenarios. I am left with being disappointed with the TE selection though. I am still questioning if LaPorta or Tucker Kraft is who I want after Darnell Washington is gone in the 2nd. Kraft will probably be the better long term player but LaPorta is more NFL ready. Higgins in the 7th is a projection to TE.

Again Smith-Njigba is the key here but getting 3 defensive backs is a nice bonus. Doubling down on the Brown and Johnson Jr could solidify the Safety position. Deuce Vaughn would be such a cool player to have on the Packers. He is role player but he plays like somebody six inches taller and 25 pounds heavier with great hands. I think the Darren Sproles comparison is off but the uniqueness of both is present. Iosivas in the 7th is a great developmental prospect, I doubt that happens though.

Smith-Njigba was gone in this scenario but Nolan Smith is a nice player to get in the first, just a gamble. Rashee Rice is the highlight here as he can be the savvy slot in the Packers offense. I think of him as very similar to James Jones. Josh Whyle is a player I am a huge fan of but I just did not have the opportunity to get him in a lot of my simulations. 

Trades

This top one provides the most complete of the trade scenario drafts and only features a single trade up to get Darnell Washington and swap of fifth and sixth round picks. Getting Mazi Smith with 45 is a great haul. Riley Moss I am projecting to a role that is similar to L'Darius Sneed as a hybrid CB and S or perhaps strictly S. 

 

This one features JSN as not available at 13 so a swap with the Buccaneers allows us to land Michael Mayer and some extra picks. The beauty with this one is that still grab a bunch of players I really like in Tippmann (as a guard or center), Rice, I am a huge fan of Sydney Brown and Anthony Johnson Jr., Trice is the bonus between them. Doubling down with two TEs that are good blockers with good hands allows for more versatility, though less speed. 

Clearly, getting JSN would be top priority for me. This one also features a trade up for Darnell Washington but then having Jammer Gibbs still available at 45 is just too much for me to pass up. He is a top playmaker and could create for some creative formations in addition to a long-term option. I was heavy on Edge here because it is a gamble on talent with the three later ones. Brooks is really a DL but he is one of my favorite players for the mid rounds. Speaking of favorite players, Juice Scruggs is such a great one to watch because he just gets the job done even if it is sometimes ugly.

Runner Up

Making a trade up to grab both JSN and Michael Mayer would make this draft. I am projecting Ringo to Safety here then swinging back and grabbing Anthony Johnson Jr. The problem is that this one leaves me hanging with a few positions I would have liked to address, particularly a second TE.

Randomness cranked up

Not much more to say than this one creates a ridiculous scenario. No way that something like this would happen but it tells you the story of what happens with AI dreams. Clearly cranking the random just means that every GM loses their sense of mind.

Overall Assessment

I have some clear favorites here across virtually all of my simulations. JSN, Michael Mayer, or Darnell Washington are all catalysts for me. If the Packers can get JSN and one of those TEs or One of those TEs and Rashee Rice, I would consider that to be a very successful draft on that alone. 

Anthony Smith Jr. is one I would absolutely love the Packers to have and they likely will double down on Safety and I like Sydney Brown in that mix too. Karl Brooks is one of my favorites that I would love to see on the Packers. He is a not quite as stout Mike Daniels in my book. 

Trying to find a second TE was tough for me. Other priorities jumped ahead but the Packers probably need to draft two. I would even be in for combination scenario of Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington but that could be a bit of overkill.

There are a limited number of QBs that fall into the mid to late rounds that I like. Essentially, Clayton Tune or Stetson Bennett. Keeping in mind, I have total faith in Jordan Love but we need our Matt Flynn type to be a backup. Bennett is the most interesting to me because he has clear flaws but he has still managed to be successful. 

Then the later rounds, I am consistent with wanting Jake Moody as the Packers probably need to draft a kicker. I am not positive that Robert Beal will be there but if he is I think he is better than advertised. Then of course, RYAN GREENHAGEN! Greenhagen made 31 tackles in one game. Watch that game, it was against Nebraska and he was all over the field. Is he a top athlete, nope. But he could be an interesting prospect to fill in at MLB in a pinch and be a demon special teamer. 

Ones that were not a common theme but I am a huge fan of:

- Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State - This guys is getting so underrated by the media. Yeah he is a little short but he is good in coverage and sticks his nose in there. He reminds me a little bit of Tyrann Mathieu.  

- Joe Tippmann, C/G, Wisconsin - Paul Alexander was working with him and made mention that he was asking a lot of questions and picking up on things quickly. That is good enough for me to want him as a challenger to the interior of the Packers offensive line.

- Juice Scruggs, C, Penn State - This guy gets my Scott Wells/AQ Shipley award. He is not going to be pretty but he will be very good in the NFL.

- Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue - A perfect sneaky slot receiver with quickness and good hands. I have seen a comparison to Jared Abbrederis but I think he is more like Ricky Proehl. He is going to find a way to be successful in the NFL.

- Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State - He got a little lost in the mix of the simulations but I feel as if he could be a very nice pick in the 5th and 6th rounds

- Andre Jones, Edge, Louisiana - He was a guy I looked into much later in the process so he kept slipping my mind in the simulations. With that said, I think he could be a late round steal and he has time to develop on the Packers

We are just one day away from the draft. I cannot wait!