Reactions to First Round Picks and Risk Factors

Hello Football Fans! As pretty much always, a crazy first round! Some surprises mixed in but probably not quite as crazy as I thought it would be. Per usual, I like to give an initial reaction to the first round to include Grade, Comments, and Risk Rank. With the grade I am factoring in what the needs were, quality of player, risk factor, and ultimately how he will help the team.

The risk factor is how likely a player is to be an absolute bust versus a guy that seems almost guaranteed to be a long time contributor. To step outside the obvious players the example I like to use would be that AJ Hawk was a contributor to the Packers for a long time so he ends up being a 32 as low risk despite being likely a C graded player in hindsight. Julius Peppers would be a 1 as a super risky player despite being an A+ graded player. Without further ado, here are my way too early ratings:

 

	Team	Name	Grade	Comments	Risk Rank (1 highest - 32 lowest risk)
1	Jaguars	Trevor Lawrence	A+	Well, the most obvious pick in the draft. He is deserving of this pick. He is also extremely low risk.	32
2	Jets	Zach Wilson	B+	I am back and forth on Wilson. I do not like the fit with the Jets because New York Media is unfair. Talent is there but I think he has a better chance of busting.	7
3	49ers	Trey Lance	B+	I know he is a big gamble but I am on board with him for the 49ers.	11
4	Falcons	Kyle Pitts	B	I am not on board with Pitts. How much can a TE change a game? Also, his cockiness is off-putting. We will see but he has a high bust potential.	6
5	Bengals	Ja'Marr Chase	A-	Good pick but I am for protecting your investment with the Bengal's current receiving core.	27
6	Dolpins	Jaylen Waddle	B	I like the idea behind Waddle and he will compliment the other receivers. But he is a bit of a gamble here. Sewell or Micah Parsons made more sense to me for them.	15
7	Lions	Penei Sewell	A	I have to say, I was surprised with the pick. But it is a very smart pick. Very smart! But did think they would go pass catcher.	29
8	Panthers	Jaycee Horne	B	I love the player and think he will be great in the NFL. But weren't there more pressing needs?	17
9	Broncos	Patrick Surtain II	B	Again, I really like the player but this was a surprise pick and there were more pressing needs. Lowest risk CB though.	31
10	Eagles	DeVonta Smith	A	In my Mock Drafts I kept saying that, "It is not fair" with the Eagles picks and well, it is not fair in reality. The Eagles made a smart trade to grab the guy they wanted and the guy that is really going to make a big difference for them. I fear Smith's long term health due to his lack of weight but dude has legit skills. Excellent value here.	25
11	Bears	Justin Fields	C-	Bears pick the one top 5 QB that I am not convinced can play in the NFL. Somethings never change.	2
12	Cowboys	Micah Parsons	A	Cowboys likely do in fact get the best Defensive Player in the draft. Parsons is a steal here.	30
13	Chargers	Rashawn Slater	B+	I liked Darrisaw better here or this would be an A-. But you cannot really lose here. The Chargers finally stop using awful players to play OT.	20
14	Jets	Alijah Vera-Tucker	B+	Again, good pick and good job trading up but I would take Darrisaw here.	22
15	Patriots	Mac Jones	A-	Jones is a steal here. Patriots sit back and get the exact player that is perfect for him	19
16	Cardinals	Zaven Collins	A	My draft crush was taken. I love Collins but I am surprised at this pick based on their needs. Still, I think he is going to be a stud. A mild risk but a worthy one	21
17	Raiders	Alex Leatherwood	D+	Well, the Raiders surprised me here again. I am so confused by this. CHRISTIAN DARRISAW IS STILL AVAILABLE! Leatherwood is solid but not the 17th best pick.	13
18	Dolphins	Jaelin Phillips	B	Talent is there but I am so scared of his medicals. Huge boom or bust. I like the player though and hope for the best.	3
19	Washington	Jamin Davis	C+	Interesting that they went with him over JOK. I saw him more as a 2nd rounder but it addresses a need. Still, a bit of a gamble here. His pro day workout is the reason he is drafted here. That is rarely good.	5
20	Giants	Kadarius Toney	B-	Higher risk and I do not think the Percy Harvin comparison is fair, he is better. Still he needs to refine a lot of things but the upside is crazy.	9
21	Colts	Kwity Paye	B-	Big gamble, I am not sure that he will ever be great, but the type that coaches appreciate more than fans. Still, I am leaning towards a bust.	10
22	Titans	Caleb Farley	B	The talent is here but you have to question his maturity a bit with some of his actions.	12
23	Vikings	Christian Darrisaw	A	Darrisaw was arguably the second best OT in this draft. I was a huge fan of his so trading down and still getting him here is an absolute steal.	23
24	Steelers	Najee Harris	A	I am a bigger fan of Harris than many. The supposed lack of speed is ridiculous. Watch the tape, he outruns plenty of guys. He seems like a Steeler RB. Great pick.	26
25	Jaguars	Travis Etienne	B-	I like the player but it seems liked there were greater needs. Still, he should bring some dynamics to the backfield.	18
26	Browns	Greg Newsome II	B+	Newsome is going to be solid overall Cornerback. I am not sure that he is a star but this is a solid pick overall.	28
27	Ravens	Rashod Bateman	B+	A great compliment to Hollywood Brown here. Ravens finally get a good first round WR	24
28	Saints	Payton Turner	C	I would love to hear what they saw in him over any of the other edge rushers that were drafted after this in the first round. What does he really have that sticks out so much that they pulled the trigger here? Strange pick.	14
29	Packers	Eric Stokes	C+	Rumor had it that he may sneak into the first round but I had Asante Samuel Jr. ahead of him. The skills are there and so is the athletic ability but there were a lack of plays in Stoke's college games. Why not Terrace Marshall Jr. or JOK here?	16
30	Bills	Gregory Rousseau	B-	Probably the second biggest boom or bust pick in the first round. I like him but he is a massive gamble	8
31	Ravens	Jayson Oweh	C	A pass-rusher with 0 sacks gets drafted in the first round. I think that says it all. Yeah, he has ridiculous athletic ability and the Ravens have a history of pulling the best out of a player. But it looks bleak here.	1
32	Buccaneers	Joe Tryon	C+	A huge gamble here but not as much as Jayson Oweh. I am surprised they skipped out on Moehrig here.	4

 

Happy day two everybody!