Initial reactions to first round picks

One thing that I really like to do is consider how much a player helps a team right away, the quality of the player, and the risk factor. The risk factor is how likely a player is to be an absolute bust versus a guy that seems almost guaranteed to be a long time contributor. To step outside the obvious players the example I like to use would be that AJ Hawk was a contributor to the Packers for a long time so he ends up being a 32 as low risk despite being likely a C graded player in hindsight. Julius Peppers would be a 1 as a super risky player despite being an A+ graded player. Without further ado, here are my way too early ratings:

Team	First	Last	Grade	Comments	Risk Rank
1. Cincinnati	Joe	Burrow	A+	The pick they needed to make here and while there is definitely risk here, it is tough to argue against him being the best QB in this draft because Tua's injury history. A relatively safe pick who I would be stunned if he busts so lower risk rank but some risk.	20
2. Washington	Chase	Young	A	I am not totally sold on Young because he is not a finished product yet but the upside is insane. I think of this as similar to Julius Peppers or Jason Pierre Paul when they came out of college. So risk but reward is great.	12
3. Detroit	Jeff	Okudah	B -	Okudah probably does not deserve this slot. He could be good but he is not even my favorite CB in this draft. He will be good but never great.	13
4. NY Giants	Andrew	Thomas	B	Initial reaction was that this was a good pick but I pegged Wirfs as a better pick here. Still he is a relatively safe pick.	28
5. Miami	Tua	Tagovailoa	A+	Miami and Tua are a near perfect fit. Assuming Tua stays healthy, this will turn out to be an absolute steal. How many players have all good tape? However, the injury history is extensive so there is a lot of risk there.	10
6. LA Chargers	Justin	Herbert	B+	Herbert is a bit risky as you have to question if he was not as successful in college because of his lack of supporting cast or if he is all talent but cannot put it together. On the plus side, he looked good at the Senior Bowl with a better support cast so that works in his favor.	4
7. Carolina	Derrick	Brown	B	I like Brown a lot but this is sort of a broccoli type of pick. He will be a very good DT but how much does a DT change your defense? Very low risk.	31
8. Arizona	Isaiah	Simmons	A+	There is no reason for Simmons to have fallen this far. We will look back at this pick and wonder how teams passed up on him. He is a player unlike any other we have seen. He will be a stud.	32
9. Jacksonville	CJ	Henderson	B+	Henderson's lack of physicality is a little concerning but his coverage skills are so good that this should be a solid pick. This is a little higher than expected for him but it is still a good pick.	21
10. Cleveland	Jedrick	Wills, Jr.	B	Wills should be a solid player in the NFL but Wirfs was the better pick so I knocked the Browns down a little.	23
11. NY Jets	Mekhi	Becton	C+	The Jets took too much of a risk here. Becton has a lot of talent and mauls a lot of defenders but he is an unfinished product and needs to hone technique because he is not going to be able to outpower NFL defenders like he did in college.	1
12. Las Vegas	Henry	Ruggs III	B+	I really like Ruggs a lot and he fits the Raiders well. But he was not the top WR in this draft and his lack of production in college does leave a bit of concern. I would personally bet that his best days are ahead of him.	7
13. Tampa Bay (From San Fran)	Tristan	Wirfs	A	Tampa Bay stole this one and will have a very good LT right away and for the next decade or so. Instantly upgrades an area of need.	30
14. San Fransisco (From Tampa Bay)	Javon	Kinlaw	B	In theory, the 49ers knocked this one out of the park. They trade away a top DT to save cash long-term and get a potentially top notch DT to replace him. I think there is some risk involved with Kinlaw though. Still they did what they needed to do.	19
15. Denver	Jerry	Jeudy	B	I probably like this pick less than most people. The fit is nice and Jeudy is dynamic but I feel like a lot of his yardage is short routes and schemes. I think there is much more risk factor here than many others think.	11
16. Atlanta	A.J.	Terrell	B -	The position makes perfect sense here but the player has a few holes in his game that I think are concerning. Not bad but not great. He should be solid though.	15
17. Dallas	CeeDee	Lamb	A+	Mike McCarthy landed the top WR in this draft and now has likely the top WR core in the NFL. He should be thanking his stars that this is his round 2 as a head coach.	29
18. Miami f/PIT	Austin	Jackson	C+	Jackson is not likely to be a top level OT in the NFL. He is more of a steady presence than anything else but even at that, he has not shown that he can be special. Strange pick.	9
19. Las Vegas f/CHI	Damon	Arnette	D	History repeated itself here. But at least when they drafted Conley he was considered a high 2nd rounder. This was the strangest pick in the first round.	5
20. Jacksonville f/LAR	K'Lavon	Chaisson	B-	Chaisson is all potential and has not put it all together yet even with freakish athleticism. I know they are going to lose Ngakoue but this really was not the best way to help their team at this point in time.	2
21. Philadelphia	Jalen	Reagor	B	Not a bad pick for the Eagles and they need a young deep threat. But he is not likely to be a dominant force. Solid pick.	18
22. Minnesota f/BUF	Justin	Jefferson	B	The Vikings did what they needed to do here and grabbed one of the top WR left on the board. The one thing is that the Vikings just have a terrible historic record with WRs in the first round so that is in the back of my mind. Still, he is a steady enough presence that the risk is low.	26
23. Chargers (From New England)	Kenneth	Murray	B-	Murray is a good player but it was odd to me that the Chargers traded back into the first round for a linebacker. Was this really a need at this point?	27
24. New Orleans	Cesar	Ruiz	B-	If this was a team that had an explicit need at interior line then this grade is higher but the Saints seemed to have larger needs at this point. But Ruiz is going to have a good career.	25
25. San Fransisco (From Minnesota)	Brandon	Aiyuk	B	I was really surprised that this was the route that the 49ers went here. The position makes sense but I would have thought that they would go for a complimentary player to Samuel. With that being said, Aiyuk has some pretty impressive skills so it adds needed talent. Because he is not the most refined player, there is a bit higher risk.	14
26. Green Bay Packers (From Miami)	Jordan	Love	D+	It is very hard to draft a player that could potentially cause a rift like this pick did. If Rodgers was hinting at retirement or this is two years down the road, I get it. But trading up for a raw QB, who is not even close to Mahomes, is a real head scratcher. This neither helps Aaron Rodgers and in fact just ticks him off. Now, with that being said, if this motivates Rodgers and builds on the chip on his shoulder then okay. If Aaron Rodgers comes out this season and has a record breaking season, I will give them credit for this and it is worth wasting a first round pick. Why not trade down or trade it for a future pick? If you are concerned with getting an heir apparent, why not build up some future draft capital? Just a head scratcher.	3
27. Seattle	Jordyn	Brooks	C	The Seahawks continue to make head scratching 1st round picks. Brooks has a lot of raw talent but he has not put it all together yet. It was not even really an area of need. Just surprising to me and I wonder what they are going for here.	8
28. Baltimore	Patrick	Queen	B	Another pick that I think I probably like less than others. Queen is a fine player and could turn out to be a new style of linebacker. But I am just not totally sold on him. We are not talking Ray Lewis here.	17
29. Tennessee	Isaiah	Wilson	B-	Wilson is a fine player and the expectations of him playing right tackle is logical. However, its tough to say if he really is an Offensive Tackle in the NFL or if he stays at guard. I think he will play for a while but I am not sure that he was a first round talent.	22
30. Miami (From Green Bay)	Noah	Igbinoghene	B-	A very good athlete and a decent overall cornerback but the Dolphins have significantly more needs than bringing in a 3rd CB. There are other CBs I liked signficantly more.	16
31. Minesota (From San Fransisco)	Jeff	Gladney	B-	Similar to the last pick in that there were corners that I like more but Gladney is the safest corner that the Vikings have drafted in the first round in quite a while.	24
32. Kansas City	Clyde	Edwards-Helaire	C+	I cannot say that I love this pick but it is decent. It just felt a little odd to take him here. He is more of a role-player and certainly not the best RB in this draft; maybe 3rd or 4th? Higher risk because he may be no better than Eric Bienemy was as player (quite ironically as that is the best comparison I could think of)	6

Ramping up!!! The Seventh Annual Andre and Chris Mock Draft!!!

Andre and Chris Draft 2020 – Seventh Annual 

Rules: As in the past Chris and Andre will alternate pick unless Andre has the Bears pick or Chris has the Packers pick, in which case we would hand the choice over to the other person.

Our philosophy in this process was that we were acting as the General Manager for each team. What that also meant was that we were taking the tendencies of certain coaches into consideration. While we were open to trades, we never made one, which we realize will never happen. Without further ado, here is the hard labor of 9 hours of chatting and GMing:

Round 1 – Andre has odds and has Chris evens unless noted by:

#Chris made the pick

+Andre made the pick

Trades:

Round 1
Team	First	Last	Position
1.       Cincinnati	Joe Burrow	LSU	QB
2.       Washington	Chase Young	Ohio St.	EDGE
3.       Detroit	Isaiah Simmons	Clemson	LB
4.       NY Giants	Jedrick Wills Jr.	Alabama	OL
5.       Miami	Tua Tagovailoa	Alabama	QB
6.       LA Chargers	Justin Herbert	Oregon	QB
7.       Carolina	Derrick Brown	Auburn	DL
8.       Arizona	Andrew Thomas	Georgia	OL
9.       Jacksonville	Jeff Okudah	Ohio St.	CB
10.   Cleveland	Javon Kinlaw	South Carolina	DL
11.   NY Jets	CeeDee Lamb	Oklahoma	WR
12.   Las Vegas	Henry Ruggs III	Alabama	WR
13.   San Francisco f/IND	CJ Henderson	Florida	CB
14.   Tampa Bay	Tristan Wirfs	Iowa	OL
15.   Denver	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama	WR
16.   Atlanta	Neville Gallimore	Oklahoma	DL
17.   Dallas	Bryce Hall	Virginia	CB
18.   Miami f/PIT	Kenneth Murray	Oklahoma	LB
19.   Las Vegas f/CHI	Mekhi Becton	Louisville	OL
20.   Jacksonville f/LAR	Tee Higgins	Clemson	WR
21.   Philadelphia	Patrick Queen	LSU	LB
22.   Minnesota f/BUF	Xavier McKinney	Alabama	S
23.   New England	K'Lavon Chaisson	LSU	EDGE
24.   New Orleans	A.J. Epenesa	Iowa	EDGE
25.   Minnesota	Jalen Reagor	TCU	WR
26.   Miami f/HOU	Yetur Gross-Matos	Penn St.	EDGE
27.   Seattle	Curtis Weaver	Boise St.	EDGE
28.   Baltimore	Grant Delpit	LSU	S
29.   Tennessee	Josh Jones	Houston	OL
30.   Green Bay+	Akeem Davis-Gaither	App. St.	LB
31.   San Francisco#	Denzel Mims	Baylor	WR
32.   Kansas City	D'Andre Swift	Georgia	RB

Round 2 – Chris has odds and Andre has evens unless noted by:

#Chris made the pick

+Andre made the pick

Round 2
33.   Cincinnati	Austin Jackson	USC	OL
34.   Indianapolis f/WAS	Justin Jefferson	LSU	WR
35.   Detroit	Kristian Fulton	LSU	CB
36.   NY Giants	Brandon Aiyuk	Arizona St.	WR
37.   LA Chargers	Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	RB
38.   Carolina	Cameron Dantzler	Miss. State	CB
39.   Miami	Ashtyn Davis	California	S
40.   Houston f/ARI	Michael Pittman Jr.	USC	WR
41.   Cleveland	Antoine Winfield Jr.	Minnesota	S
42.   Jacksonville	Ezra Cleveland	Boise St.	OL
43.   Chicago f/LV	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Colorado	WR
44.   Indianapolis	Jordan Love	Utah St.	QB
45.   Tampa Bay	Trevon Diggs	Alabama	CB
46.   Denver	A.J. Terrell	Clemson	CB
47.   Atlanta	Noah Igbinoghene	Auburn	CB
48.   NY Jets	Isaiah Wilson	Georgia	OL
49.   Pittsburgh	Jordyn Brooks	Texas Tech	LB
50.   Chicago	Kyle Dugger	Lenoir-Rhyne	S
51.   Dallas	Ross Blacklock	TCU	DL
52.   LA Rams	Cesar Ruiz	Michigan	OL
53.   Philadelphia	Lloyd Cushenberry III	LSU	OL
54.   Buffalo	Tyler Biadasz	Wisconsin	OL
55.   Baltimore f/NE via ATL	Chase Claypool	Notre Dame	WR
56.   Miami f/NO	Zack Moss	Utah	RB
57.   LA Rams f/HOU	KJ Hamler	Penn St.	WR
58.   Minnesota	Jaylon Johnson	Utah	CB
59.   Seattle	Josh Uche	Michigan	EDGE
60.   Baltimore	Zack Baun	Wisconsin	LB
61.   Tennessee	Cole Kmet	Notre Dame	TE
62.   Green Bay	Jordan Elliott	Missouri	DL
63.   Kansas City f/SF	Jeff Gladney	TCU	CB
64.   Seattle f/KC	Jack Driscoll	Auburn	OL

Round 3 – Andre has odds and Chris has evens unless noted by:

#Chris made the pick

+Andre made the pick

Round 3
65.   Cincinnati	Troy Dye	Oregon	LB
66.   Washington	Brycen Hopkins	Purdue	TE
67.   Detroit	Ben Bredeson	Michigan	OL
68.   NY Jets f/NYG	Jonah Jackson	Ohio St.	OL
69.   Carolina	Prince Tega Wanogho	Auburn	OL
70.   Miami	Lucas Niang	TCU	OL
71.   LA Chargers	Leki Fotu	Utah	DL
72.   Arizona	Raekwon Davis	Alabama	DL
73.   Jacksonville	Terrell Burgess	Utah	S
74.   Cleveland	Julian Okwara	Notre Dame	EDGE
75.   Indianapolis	Tyler Johnson	Minnesota	WR
76.   Tampa Bay	J.K. Dobbins	Ohio St.	RB
77.   Denver	Matt Peart	Connecticut	OL
78.   Atlanta	Damon Arnette	Ohio St.	CB
79.   NY Jets	Essang Bassey	Wake Forest	CB
80.   Las Vegas	Justin Madubuike	Texas A&M	DL
81.   Las Vegas f/CHI	Lamar Jackson	Nebraska	CB
82.   Dallas	Thaddeus Moss	LSU	TE
83.   Denver f/PIT	Netane Muti	Fresno St.	OL
84.   LA Rams	Bradlee Anae	Utah	EDGE
85.   Detroit f/PHI	Jake Fromm	Georgia	QB
86.   Buffalo	Terrell Lewis	Alabama	EDGE
87.   New England	Adam Trautman	Dayton	TE
88.   New Orleans	Antonio Gibson	Memphis	WR
89.   Minnesota	Alex Highsmith	Charlotte	EDGE
90.   Houston	Marlon Davidson	Auburn	DL
91.   Las Vegas f/SEA via HOU	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	RB
92.   Baltimore	Bryan Edwards	South Carolina	WR
93.   Tennessee	Dane Jackson	Pittsburgh	CB
94.   Green Bay+	Ben Bartch	St. John's (MN)	OL
95.   Denver f/SF	Davon Hamilton	Ohio St.	DL
96.   Kansas City	Darrell Taylor	Tennessee	EDGE
97.   Cleveland f/HOU*	Cam Brown	Penn St.	LB
98.   New England*	Jalen Hurts	Oklahoma	QB
99.   NY Giants*	Javaris Davis	Auburn	CB
100.     New England*	Antonio Gandy-Golden	Liberty	WR
101.     Seattle*	Amik Robertson	Louisiana Tech	CB
102.     Pittsburgh*	Devin Duvernay	Texas	WR
103.     Philadelphia*	Jacob Eason	Washington	QB
104.     LA Rams*	Jabari Zuniga	Florida	EDGE
105.     Minnesota*	Robert Hunt	Louisiana	OL
106.     Baltimore*	Anfernee Jennings	Alabama	EDGE

Thanks for reading!